Last week was marginally successful as we managed a small profit on our best AFL betting tips. Hopefully this weekend is even better as we offer more betting picks and advice. There looks to be a fair bit of value around so be sure to read on and check out our 2014 AFL Round 16 preview, betting tips and tipping advice!
2014 AFL Round 16 Preview
The first game of Round `16 is the Nth Melbourne Kangaroos Vs. Hawthorn Hawks clash on Friday night. It’s at Etihad stadium and the top of the ladder hawks are four goal favourites. Alistair Clarkson is back in the coach’s box after being away with sickness and while the Hawks are still ravaged with injury, they have won five in a row and aren’t showing any signs of slowing down. The Kangaroos were terribly disappointing last week against the Lions and showed us just how inconsistent they are. The Hawks won two games against the Roos last year, both by small margins. Despite being terrible last week, there is no denying that the Kangaroos have stood up against tough competition this year. They will be looking to bounce back strong and while it is unlikely they win, we can’t see Hawthorn blowing this game away.
Richmond Tigers Vs. Brisbane Lions is a game of two disappointing teams, both of which are coming off a rare win. The Tigers beat the poor Saints last week, while the Lions were a little braver in their defeat of the Kangaroos. It’s at the MCG, where the Lions have only beaten the Tigers once since 1989. The Lions, in fact, have only won three games at the MCG in the last six years. It’s not a good stat and while they will be fighting on Saturday afternoon, you have to think their victory over the Roos was an anomaly, while the Tigers have slowly shown a little more each week. The better players from the Tigers (Martin, Cotchin, Deledio, Reiwoldt) have been gelling better lately and should win this one.
The GWS Giants Vs. Adelaide Crows game won’t be as one-sided as some people think, despite the Crows defeating the tough Port Adelaide Power last week. It’s at Spotless Stadium, which seems to be the only place the kids can win. No, they wont win here, but there is a reason the bookmakers have set the line at a low 23 points. It’s a fishy line and this is a fishy game. The Crows should win, but won’t be betting on this one in a million years.
Saturday afternoon will be showcased by Gold Coast Suns Vs. Collingwood Magpies. All the talk during the week has seen Pies Coach Nathan Buckley discussing Gary Ablett’s past performances against his team. Late last season Gary had 49 touches, kicked two goals and the Suns won by 7 points. Buckley has gone on record as saying Ablett will receive a hard tag from Brent Macaffer. Even if the Pies can stop Ablett’s influence (not overly likely), the Suns have still probably shown better overall form than the Pies recently. Really think the Magpies are on the back foot here, should be a close game.
One of two games on Saturday night is Melbourne Demons Vs. Fremantle Dockers. It’s up at TIO Stadium in Darwin and most people have pencilled in a Dockers win. We have too. They are in great form and as long as they don’t switch off mentally, should win this game easily. Not as easily as the last two almost 100 point victories against the Dees, but easily enough.
The other game on Saturday night is Port Adelaide Power Vs. Essendon Bombers. This is a must-win for the Bombers if they want to make the eight. Unfortunately what they “must” do and what they will do doesn’t align. Essendon will struggle against the forwards of the Power and will also struggle in the midfield. They couldn’t defeat a struggling Cats last week, even though they had every chance, and we can’t see them being able to get the points here. The four goal line is just about spot on though, so it’s a tough one to bet. The Bombers have lost only two games by more than 40 points this year. Thinking they lose another one by six goals or less.
Sunday football kicks off with Carlton Blues Vs. St Kilda Saints. This one should be fairly cut and dry. At least we hope that’s the case for Blues fans. The Saints are simply terrible at the moment and the only solace they will take into this game is that the Blues aren’t that much better. Luckily for Mick Malthouse, his Blues have more class around the ground. The Blues won their last two meetings with the Saints by around 30 points and we are expecting the same sort of result here.
It’s over to Patersons Staidium in the west for West Coast Eagles Vs. Sydney Swans and while that would seem like a bad thing for the team from the east, it’s actually not the case as the Swans have one of the best recent records in the league for wins at Patersons. The Swans have won the last eight against the Eagles, four of which were at this very stadium. Going to be very hard for the Eagles backline to contain the slick Swans. Thinking along the lines of at least a four goal victory.
The final game of Round 16 is Geelong Cats Vs. Western Bulldogs. Both teams won last week, but both teams are playing for different things here. The Bulldogs will be looking to keep instilling confidence in their young players and their fans, while the Cats are trying to show the football world they are still a powerhouse. Oh, and they are still trying to fight it out for a spot in the top four. This is an important game for the Cats and while the Bulldogs should fight out the game, ultimately the Cats will nip this one in the bud at their home ground.
Round 16 Best Betting Tips
(May not be available in your state. Always gamble responsibly.)
Hawthorn Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.25 at Ladbrokes ***
Gold Coast Suns Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.60 at Ladbrokes **
Port Adelaide Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.20 at Ladbrokes **
Carlton Blues Under 39.5 (Margin 1-39) - $2.30 at Ladbrokes *
Sydney Swans at the line (-21.5) - $1.92 at Ladbrokes **
(*The stars represent the confidence level – three stars is high confidence, two is a medium level of confidence and one is a low level. These could be considered as the “units” of the betting play for those who follow sports betting bankroll management.)
Before You Bet Round 16 Tipping Advice
We got the same two wrong that lots of people would have missed (Port loss, Nth Melbourne loss), but stil happy with a solid seven. Hoping to pick that elusive nine this week! Remember, this isn’t betting advice, just what we would pick in a tipping competition at the local pub or in the workplace.
Hawks (Nth Melbourne)
Richmond (Brisbane)
Adelaide (GWS)
Gold Coast (Collingwood)
Fremantle (Melbourne)
Port Adelaide (Essendon)
Carlton (St Kilda)
Sydney (West Coast)
Geelong (Bulldogs)
Score last round: 7
Total score: 84
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
