Headlining Indigenous Round in the AFL is the Dreamtime at the ‘G clash between Richmond and Essendon. It’s the standalone Saturday night fixture in Round 11 and if last year’s edition is anything to go by, then we’re in for a cracker! We preview the match and provide our best betting tips below.
Also, Before You Bet will be providing free previews and betting tips for EVERY game in the 2024 AFL season, so make sure to head over to out our AFL Tips regularly to keep up to date with all of our free content.
2024 AFL Round 11 Preview & Betting Tips
Richmond vs Essendon
Saturday 7:40pm AEST, May 25th, MCG
It was always going to be a tough 2024 for Richmond with their coaching change and list turnover over the past 12 months, and they enter Round 11 on a six-game losing streak and are 1-9 overall. Surprisingly, their lone win came against the ladder-leading Swans back in Round 3, although they had a lot more experience and talent on the park in that encounter.
Most recently the Tigers had their pants pulled down by the Lions at the Gabba by 119 points (44-163), that marked their fifth straight loss by at least six goals.
Injuries have been unrelenting for the Tigers to date and they now have a whopping 18 players on the latest injury list. The good news is only one of their three changes this week was forced, with Rhyan Mansell being the unlucky one. The Tigers will get a boost from the return of Liam Baker.
Meanwhile, Essendon have enjoyed a terrific start to their campaign and enter Round 11 in second spot on the ladder with a tidy 7-1-2 record. They’re currently on a six-game unbeaten run which includes a draw against the Magpies on Anzac Day.
The Bombers were challenged at stages during their recent meeting with the Kangaroos but eventually prevailed by a comfortable 40 points (106-66). Peter Wright returned to form with a BOG performance with his four goals and Matt Guelfi was influential in game 100 with 3.3.
More positive news for the Bombers is the return of Jordan Ridley from a leg injury. He’s missed the entirety of the season to date but will add plenty of class to the Bombers backline. Nate Caddy also comes in for his first career game, while Dylan Shiel is back to the reserves.
Match Prediction: The Bombers will start this clash as the overwhelming favourites which will be of no surprise to anyone considering recent form lines of both clubs. However, the line has been set at a 40.5 which seems a bit dicey considering the occasion of this game.
Instead, in a tricky betting game, I fancy the overs in the total points market. The undermanned Tigers have been giving up some huge scores of late including 103, 133, and 163 in their last three, and the fast-moving Bombers should post another big total in this one.
Over 165.5 Points
$1.90 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
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Peter Wright 3+ Goals – 2m Peter was great last week and gets another easy matchup on Saturday. I’m expecting another bag of goals for the big man.
Dustin Martin Anytime Goal Scorer – Has been poor this season but usually performs in big games. He should be hitting the scoreboard here.
Jayden Short 20+ Disposals – Will get plenty of opportunities to get easy touches in defence again this week and should get to 20 without too much fuss.
SGM Odds: $4.20 at BoomBet
