The first of two Sunday afternoon games in the NRL kicks off at the foot of the mountains, as the Knights head down the M1 to take on the Panthers. With the Knights’ season circling the drain, we could be in for another Sunday arvo Panthers’ procession. Ben Bridge has a full preview and betting tips for the game!
2024 NRL Round 22 Preview & Betting Tips
Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights
BlueBet Stadium, Sunday 4th August, 2:00pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Panthers put on a clinic last weekend, as they headed down to the Gong to take on the Dragons. The Panthers ran out 46-10 winners, with an utterly dominant first half an hour that put them up 22-0 and out of reach of the home side. Nathan Cleary was back to his best, scoring three tries, setting up two others, running for 242 metres and scoring 26 points all by himself. They did this despite the early losses of James Fisher-Harris and Daine Laurie during the first half. It appears that the three-time Premiers are ramping things up heading towards September.
As for the Knights, they are coming off the bye in round 21, with their last game being a home loss in round 20 to the Broncos, going down 30-14. This loss looks far worse after the Broncos’ mediocre performance last weekend, and the Knights are now struggling to maintain pace with the teams battling it out for the top 8. It won’t get any easier against the Panthers, and with yet another change in the spine, there seems to be issues behind the scenes at the Knights that could see their season ended this weekend.
Match Preview
These teams met in round 15 at McDonald Jones Stadium, with the Panthers closing 11.5-point road favourites. Whilst the Panthers dominated the matchup, completing at 93% and running 500 metres further than the Knights, they only managed a 26-18 victory, with the Knights never truly out of the game. The total closed 45.5, and overs bettors would have been upset, given 44 points were scored with 15 minutes still on the clock. Throw in two missed conversions from the Panthers, and it would have been a tough pill to swallow.
As for this game, the Panthers opened 13.5-point favourites, which seemed very short given they closed 11.5-point favourites on the road against this team less than two months ago. And so, it proved, as Panthers money has flooded the market to where they now sit as 17.5-point favourites, with the three converted try threshold surely breached before kick-off. My numbers make the Panthers 17.5-point favourites, however I still see value on the Panthers here, given their form right now. We bet the alternate spread on the Panthers last weekend, and it was a no sweat winner, and it’s certainly a consideration again here.
Moving onto the total, which opened 48.5 and has seen unders money come into the market. The total still sits at 48.5, however the under is juiced heavily. My numbers agree with this move, as I make a fair total 43.5, however once again the Panthers could reach this total on their own. I am intrigued by the Knights team total, which currently sits around 13.5/14.5. The Knights have the lowest points per game of any team in the competition this season, and against a Panthers team who are ramping up their defence to be ready for finals footy, this total could be too high.
So, plenty to consider for this one, but our best bet will once again see us rolling with a big Panthers win.
Panthers -23.5
$2.50 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
Knights (team total) under 13.5 – As above, 13.5 not as good as 14.5 but we will take it.
B To’o (1+ try) – To’o could go nuclear this weekend to put to bed the week of rumours he’s been dealing with. Taking on the weaker right edge of the Knights, expect at least one try for the best winger in the game.
G Marzhew (1+ try) – The Panthers’ right edge continues to be their Achilles heel, and with Kalyn Ponga back, expect them to pepper that edge all game when they’re in the redzone.
SGM Odds: $11.21 at Neds
