Two of this centuries most successful clubs have once again navigated their way to the last Saturday in September. Geelong and Brisbane will lock horns on the big stage in what should be another epic clash between two star-studded outfits. The afternoon time slot gets the nod once again, with the 2025 AFL Grand Final set to begin at the MCG from 2:30pm AEST.
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Geelong vs Brisbane Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL Grand Final
Cats Primed for a Strong Showing
The Geelong Cats arrive in the 2025 Grand Final on the back of a strong and consistent season. After finishing second on the ladder with a 17–6 record, they’ve ridden a blend of experience, tactical nous, and peak form into the decider. Their path through the finals has been convincing: they beat Brisbane in the second qualifying final, 16.16 (112) to 11.8 (74), and then overcame Hawthorn in the preliminary final 17.13 (115) to 13.7 (85). That showed both their capacity to deliver on big stages and to respond under pressure when their back was against the wall. With Patrick Dangerfield delivering a vintage performance in the prelim, and a well-balanced side across defence, midfield and attack, Geelong enter Saturday’s showdown with confidence and diminished external pressure.
What makes the Cats particularly dangerous is their finals experience and depth. They’ve lost few players to injury in the late season, and their list has maturity—players like Dangerfield remain match-winners and their younger brigade have stepped up, as well as Bailey Smith who recently finished on the Brownlow podium in his first season in the hoops. In the preliminary final, even without key defender Tom Stewart (ruled out after concussion), the Cats managed to control the contest through midfield dominance and timely goals. Their structural balance means they can slug it out in stoppages or run and carry when the game opens up. Coach Chris Scott will want his side to maintain composure, especially in the first half, and lean on their defensive discipline and contested ball work to hold off a dangerous Brisbane side.
Resilient Lions Aiming for Back-to-Back
On the other side, the Brisbane Lions are gunning for back-to-back premierships, something the club has not achieved since the early 2000s. They finished the home-and-away campaign in third place (16–6–1) and carried forward momentum into the finals. After their loss to Geelong in the qualifying final, they powered themselves back through the finals bracket: defeating Gold Coast in a dominant QClash semi, then taking down Collingwood in the preliminary final to book a third straight Grand Final. Their finals run is a testament to their resilience, especially when adversity has struck. Brisbane’s midfield engine — with the likes of Hugh McCluggage, Will Ashcroft, and Josh Dunkley — has been formidable all season, giving them the capacity to win clearances and generate repeated forward pressure. The challenge for them is whether their list can hold up across four quarters against a steady and battle-hardened Geelong side.
However, Brisbane do arrive with some injury cloud and selection questions. Lachie Neale has been confirmed to play despite being rushed back from a calf issue, making him a clear selection risk given his limited preparation. While their resilience and younger brigade have carried them through the finals, there’s no doubt that the decision to bring Neale straight back carries both potential reward and risk on the biggest stage.
Recent H2H History
In recent head-to-head history this season, Brisbane actually held the upper hand in the two home-and-away clashes. The Lions won 10.10 (70) to 9.7 (61) at the Gabba in Round 3, and again 14.8 (92) to 6.15 (51) at Kardinia Park in Round 15. But Geelong got redemption in the finals: they defeated Brisbane convincingly in the second qualifying final 16.16 (112) to 11.8 (74). Those earlier wins from Brisbane highlight that the Lions can match Geelong’s intensity and pressure on their day, but the qualifying final result suggests that in a high-stakes contest Geelong might have more composure. Also, the two teams have never before met in a Grand Final, making Saturday’s match a fresh chapter in their rivalry.
Who Wins the Grand Final? Here’s Our Cats vs Lions Tip
This contest has all the hallmarks of a classic Grand Final: two proud clubs, both with premiership experience, arriving in good form and carrying contrasting narratives. Geelong’s consistency and balanced structure give them an edge in controlling tempo and generating repeat inside 50 entries, while Brisbane’s dynamism through the middle and capacity to score quickly keep them a constant threat. The fitness of Lachie Neale looms as a pivotal subplot, as his influence could swing momentum, yet his lack of full match conditioning makes Brisbane vulnerable in the later stages. The Cats, conversely, look hardened and ready, with a system that thrives under September pressure. Expect Brisbane to push hard early and stay in the contest through grit and midfield bursts, but Geelong’s superior depth, experience, and defensive discipline should ultimately prove decisive.
Geelong –10.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Geelong vs Brisbane Same Game Multi
Geelong to Win: See our best bet above.
Patrick Dangerfield 2+ Goals: Absolutely destroyed the Hawks last weekend with one of the best finals performances you’ll see. Kicked three goals from his 31 touches and kicked two goals against the Lions back in Round 3.
Dayne Zorko 25+ Disposals: He had a shaky start in the prelim to say the least, however, he regained composure and finished strongly. 35, 26, 28 disposals from his three finals this season and has recorded BOG honours in his last two matches against the Cats.
Darcy Wilmot 20+ Disposals: He was fantastic again last weekend and has grown into a crucial player for the Lions and their ability to transition the ball. 24, 26, 25 disposals in his three finals this year, and has now reached 20+ in six straight outings.
Same Game Multi Odds: $6.75 at Dabble
Geelong vs Brisbane Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Saturday, September 27th 2025
Time: 2:30pm AEST
Location: MCG, Melbourne
Weather: 18 degrees, Mostly Cloudy
Odds: Geelong $1.55 vs Brisbane $2.45
Line: Geelong –10.5
Points: 170.5
Where to Watch Geelong vs Brisbane
You can watch the Cats vs Lions clash live and exclusive on Channel 7.
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