The UFC heads to Newark, New Jersey this weekend for a stacked pay-per-view card headlined by a rematch between Merab Dvalishvili and Sean O’Malley. While in the co-main Kayla Harrison finally gets her chance to become a UFC champion when she takes on Julianna Pena in the co-main. We take a look at my best bets for the two title fights and one huge value play on the undercard below.
UFC 316 Predictions & Tips
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Sean O’Malley Prediction & Tip
Merab Dvalishvili goes into this weekend’s rematch with Sean O’Malley as a sizeable favourite due to the one-sided nature of their clash last year. ‘The Machine’ took down ‘Suga’ with ease and registered 10 minutes of control time in a fight that won him the title and saw many groans when the rematch was announced. That’s because, off of that fight, it is hard to see how the former champion can regain his belt.
However, the reality is Dvalishvili is still incredibly hittable on the feet, can put himself in dangerous situations in the clinch and on the break and while his greatest weapon is cardio, he does still tend to fade (albeit not to an incredible deal) in the championship rounds. To win the fight O’Malley will need to fight at range, pot-shot the champion and keep the lateral movement up, before landing the knockout blow when a frustrated Dvalishvili closes the distance.
However, that is easier said than done and the reality is the champ has far more avenues to victory and more likely than not we see a repeat of the pair’s first fight. Back the Georgian to get his hand raised by decision again.
Merab Dvalishvili by decision
$1.80 (4 Units)
Julianna Pena vs. Kaya Harrison Prediction & Tip
Julianna Pena will start her second reign as UFC champion by trying to produce a massive upset over Kayla Harrison. Pena first won the UFC title by shocking the world beating Amanda Nunes, only to be comprehensively beaten in the rematch. She then claimed UFC gold again beating Raquel Pennington.
Her opponent, Kayla Harrison - a two-time Olympic judo gold medallist - comes into the title fight as a huge favourite and for good reason. After dominating the Bellator scene she has taken the UFC by storm, battering former champion Holly Holm before comfortably beating Ketlen Viera to earn a title shot.
While Pena has overcome the odds throughout her career, I would be stunned to see her win this fight. Nunes’s cardio was always a glaring weakness in her game and it was exploited by Pena. Harrison’s weakness is her striking, but that isn’t an area Pena can make her pay. Harrison will put Pena on her back and will unleash a barrage of punches, elbows and submission attempts before the ref is forced to step in or Pena taps.
Pena by TKO/submission
$1.75 (4 Units)
Ariane Lipski vs. Wang Cong Prediction & Tip
On pay-per-view cards, there is always one or two horrendously underrated underdogs. When originally scanning I spotted several bad lines. Kelvin Gastelum is a ridiculous price as is Bruno Silva and Yanal Ashmouz. But the line I have opted to attack is the one around Ariane Lipski.
Let me start with this. I expected more from Lipski when she came to the UFC and in several of her fights, she has underwhelmed. This weekend she meets Wang Cong, a deadly striker, who has knocked down women at will since entering the Octagon. However, the issue for Lipski in her UFC career to date has been that she is not a strong wrestler. Once on the ground, the Brazilian has submission skills, tapping out Casey O’Neill and Luana Silva in the Octagon. But more often than not she is on her back.
That won’t be something she’ll have to deal with this weekend facing Cong. The Chinese woman is dangerous on the feet but has shown she is a fish out of water on the mat. After dropping Gabriella Fernandes, Cong showed her lack of grappling awareness and was submitted.
Lipski is a dangerous fighter and can finish her opponents in a flash. She is opportunistic and won’t have to worry about the takedown here, meaning can fight with. I rate her around the $3 mark so imagine my surprise when I saw nearly $7 floating around. Back the Brazilian to cause a major upset, potentially by submission.
Ariane Lipski to win
$6.20 (1.5 Units)
