This could have been billed as the rematch of the 2019/20 National Championship, where Joe Burrow and the LSU Tigers defeated Trevor Lawrence and the Clemson Tigers. Instead, we get Lawrence and the Jaguars hosting one of the worst teams in the league for Monday Night Football, in a matchup that only one team have anything to play for, with Joe Burrow out for the season.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, previewing how we think things will play out, and give out our NFL Best Bet. Make sure you are following Before You Bet, as we will have dedicated NFL betting tips for all primetime NFL games this season, as well as a preview of the main NFL slate on Mondays. All for free!
NFL Week 13 Preview & Betting Tips
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars
EverBank Stadium, Tuesday 5th December, 12:15pm (AEDT)
The Bengals are coming off a 3rd straight loss, going down 16-10 to the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Bengals season has been circling the drain since the loss of franchise quarterback Joe Burrow, and a road matchup with the AFC South leading Jacksonville Jaguars isn’t a place they’d like to be. The Bengals defence conceded a whopping 421 total yards to a Steelers offense that ranks 5th last in the league in yards per game. The fact they only conceded 16 points says a lot more about the Steelers offense than it does about the Bengals defence, and the Jags should have no problem with scoring points this week.
Speaking of the Jags, they have slowly been generating momentum since their miserable 34-3 week 10 loss to the 49ers. They spanked the Titans in week 11, before winning a competitive game over the Texans last week, 24-21. The Jags were terrific offensively, passing for 364 yards at 9.6 yards per play, with Lawrence sharing the load amongst his receivers, with five different multi-catch receivers in the game. Travis Etienne struggled to get going, and the Jags will be expecting more from him this week.
Ventrell Miller (LB) – OUT
Jaylon Moore / Jamal Agnew (WR) – OUT
Cam Robinson (OT) – OUT
Brenton Strange / Luke Farrell (TE) – Questionable
Travis Etienne (RB) – Questionable
Tyson Campbell (CB) – Questionable
Joe Burrow (QB) – OUT
Devin Cochran (OT) – OUT
Devonnsha Maxwell (DT) – OUT
Cam Taylor-Britt (CB) – OUT
Jay Tufele (DT) – Questionable
D’Ante Smith (OT) – Questionable
These teams last met in week 4 of the 2021 NFL season, with the Bengals coming home 24-21 winners. This was Trevor Lawrence’s fourth career start, and the Jags were still under the coaching of one of the worst Head Coaches to ever have a job in the NFL, Urban Meyer. I take nothing from the result, especially with Joe Burrow set to miss.
The Jags were 6.5-point favourites on the lookahead, before re-opening at 7.5. This was quickly bet up to Jaguars -8/8.5 and is now closing in on the key of 10. This number is asserting that the Bengals are currently a bottom three team in the NFL, which is crazy for a team that had Superbowl aspirations a month ago. I make the number closer to Jaguars -8, however I can’t bring myself to trust the Bengals defence, let alone their offense, to keep this within 10. No bet on the side, although I have more faith in the Jags covering this number.
As for the total, it opened 41.5 on the lookahead, before re-opening on Monday at 41. The under has been bet heavily, with the number now down to 39.5. I’ve got to agree, with the Bengals offensive struggles continuing with Jake Browning under centre, I can see a game state where the Jags get out to a lead at halftime, before cruising in the second half of this one. Obviously much preferred the number at the start of the week, but we will take the 39.5 and hope the Prime Time unders trend continues.
Under 39.5 total points
$1.96 (1.5 Units)