Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Flemington on Saturday, September 14th.
We've previewed every race on the card below.
Flemington Racing Tips: Saturday, September 14th
Best Bet: Race 5 - (5) Dalasan
Best Value: Race 6 - (7) My Pendant
No bet
(2) Absolute Flirt and (3) Athiri are the two plays for me in the 3YO fillies race down the straight. Absolute Flirt had no luck at all first up and then bumped into Exhilarates last start, who has since come out and won again. She comes into this third up from a spell, she has experience down the straight and should be right in the finish. Athiri has been racing against superior horses in Sydney. This is probably the easiest race she's contested in quite some time. If she ran to her best she'd be hard to beat at each way odds.
(13) Missile Mantra goes on top here after a super first up run behind Super Seth at Caulfield. He settled last on a day where it was tough to make ground and he ran home strongly out wide in the best last 200m of the race to be beaten less than 2L. Much better suited at Flemington, you'd think and he already showed in his debut prep that he's got plenty of ability. (4) Peidra started $5.50 in that same race but was caught wide without cover throughout the race. I wouldn't be ruling him out. (2) Independent Road looks a blowout chance. He had absolutely no luck at all first up and he was a winner at this track and distance last prep.
Value: (2) Independent Road $26
(13) Missile Mantra
$4.00
Competitive race but two I'm keen to back. (14) Tarwin should be undefeated from his four career starts. He's won three of them and was beaten a nose when desperately unlucky first up last preparation. He can measure up fresh today in what is his biggest test to date. (4) Heptagon is a huge price at 40/1. He did very little first up but he's got a fantastic second up record with two wins and a 2nd from three starts. He's got a good record at this distance and has run 2nd at his only start over the Flemington 1400m so if he gets a good run from the barrier, he could be the value.
(5) Dalasan looks one of the better bets of the day at Flemington. He resumed in Adelaide with victory over Scales Of Justice and Waging War. Scales Of Justice went on to win a Group 1 at his next start, while Waging War carried top weight and was very brave in defeat in the Balaklava Cup. He probably should be undefeated and he sticks to his own age group today. His last-start form sees him quite clearly the one to beat.
Three I'm backing here. I'll be saving on the favourite (9) Fidelia. She's a good chance in this but I couldn't get her short enough to be favourite in this field. She's three from three at Flemington and is much better suited second up at 1400m after a good first up run, but this is a competitive race. (2) Spanish Whisper was good first up behind Pippie. She's never finished out of the top two when second up from a spell so from the good draw she should be right in the finish. My top pick will be (7) My Pendant, who just continues to deliver time and time again when I back her. She's got five wins and three 2nds from nine career starts so she's awfully consistent. Happy to stick with her despite the wide draw and there's $6.50 still available which is a good price.
(13) Mystic Journey should be winning this. She was good when winning first up at Caulfield over 1400m in the PB Lawrence Stakes and she'll be even better second up at 1600m on the big Flemington track. She's undefeated at the track and distance and of course the last time she raced here was the All-Star Mile, where she sat three-wide without cover and still dominated. If she runs to her best, she'll be winning. (3) Humidor can be the big improver today. He rarely does anything first up but he's got four wins and a 2nd from six starts when second up. The blinkers go back on today so I think well see a turnaround in form from him. (4) Scales Of Justice is obviously flying and should finish in the money again. He'll go forward and probably take a sit off the speed set ahead of him, he just needs to slot in. He'll give the mare something to chase down. (7) Kings Will Dream was good first up after a long injury layoff. He can continue to improve today. (8) Fifty Stars and (12) Mr Quickie others to include.
Value: (3) Humidor $26
(13) Mystic Journey
$2.20
Pretty keen to back (11) Demerara each way here at $5.00 and even money for the place. She's first up here and she's won five of her six starts when first up so far. Gets in light with 53kg and Craig Williams is booked to ride. Godolphin horses often fly fresh and this mare is certainly a case of that so if she's ready to go today she'll be tough to beat. (1) Dothraki can be an each way option at the top of the weights second up from a spell. He can tend to turn it up sometimes but he's placed in 11 of his 14 starts when second up.
Two to finish off the day. (6) Captain Cook improved as expected last start and I'll stick with him off the back of that. He was beaten 0.75L over 1700m at Caulfield and third up today he should be going close again. He'll settle mid-pack and get plenty of opportunity to wind up on the big track. (7) Sully could be the value. The stable is absolutely airborne and this horse had no luck at all first up behind Age Of Chivalry. He was held up most of the straight and never got a crack at them. With some luck today he might be able to give this a shake.
