The second NRL Finals game on Saturday heads to Townsville for a sudden death showdown between the Cowboys and Knights. With both teams experiencing unconvincing seasons, they will consider themselves fortunate to be featuring in the Finals. That will motivate them to want to perform well and now, everything which has gone before them which counts for little. Each can assert their dominance on this game. Before You Bet is here to take a comprehensive look at the match ahead with the aim of finding you a winner in a tricky contest.
NRL Finals Week 1 Betting tips
North Queensland Cowboys vs Newcastle Knights
Queensland Country Bank Stadium – Saturday 14th September – 7:50pm (AEST)
Match Preview
The Cowboys earned the right to host a home Final in Week 1 following a strong finish to their season winning 6 out of their past 7 matches. Arguably the form team, they produced a stunning upset victory over the Bulldogs 44-6. Starting strongly and having resolute defence, they lead 20-nil at HT. They further extended their lead in the second half and executed to a high standard. With 56% possession, they completed at 80%, averaged 9.5m per carry and had 8 line breaks. They were just as impressive in defence, allowing just 2 line breaks and conceding 7.8m per carry.
The Knights have played ‘sudden death’ rugby league for a few weeks now, serving them well to prevail 14-6 over the Dolphins at home. In a grinding affair, the Knights required a strong defensive structure and took their chances to build pressure in attack. It was tight but the Knights held their nerve. Despite having 49% possession and completing at 78%, they made more metres, more PCM’s and missed fewer tackles; it should be stated that they still missed 44 tackles over 80 minutes. If they are to compete with their opponents, they will need to lift several levels from their past few weeks but can consider themselves ‘battle hardened’.
Match Prediction
Momentum is with the Cowboys is this contest. Not only do they possess a better record to end the season, but they were also victorious over the Knights in Round 2, 21-20. That victory extended the winning streak of the home team, who has won the past 11 matches (every game since 2016); the Knights have also never won here in 5 attempts. The Cowboys have also won 4 out of the past 5 against the Knights, with the average margin of victory being 15.4 points. The style which the Knights played left a lot to be desired. While they were productive at times, they still struggled to turn positive field position into points. This is a shortcoming of their team, who are limited with the depth of their halves. The Cowboys pack also appears more capable of generating momentum through the middle. This will be important as they will need to fatigue their opponents in favourable home conditions.
The Knights will tighten up defensively, but they have been exposed by strong attacking teams on several occasions this year. While their recent form has been positive, they are yet to face the quality which the Cowboys can possess; make no mistake, the Cowboys are vulnerable too, they are just better equipped to deal with the challenges of their opponents compared to the Knights.
It is hard to go past the hosts in this encounter. If the Knights are to win, it will be a character defining victory. With everything stated above, a close match is expected, and punters should invest accordingly.
Cowboys 1-12
$3.10 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
The Cowboys option is to add value into your investment. The average total points in the past 5 matches are 44.2 points, but 3 of the past 5 have seen less than 41 scored. Feldt is departing the Cowboys next season and has a great ability to score at home; he is the leading try scorer for the Cowboys with 22 for the year. Nanai is ranked 3rd, crossing for 13 tries and is always a threat on the ground or in the air for his team.
Cowboys (H2H)
Total Points Under 43.5
Feldt & Nanai to Score
SGM Odds: $15 at Ladbrokes (0.5 Units)
