Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for the Ballarat Cup Day meeting on Saturday, November 25th.
The Cup headlines a 10-race card, with the track currently rated a Good 4. There is 1-10mm of rain predicted on Saturday, however, so there’s a chance we could be racing on a wet track at some point.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below. You can also check out our Railway Stakes Day Preview & Betting Tips for Ascot on Saturday, or listen to the podcast below where we take an in-depth look at every race on the card!
BALLARAT RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 1 Royal Fashion
Best Value: Race 2 Written In Stone
Race 1
Very keen to bet here on two horses. ROYAL FASHION is a New Zealand import that’s having its first start for the Hayes, Hayes and Dabernig team and comes off a nice trial win in the lead up to today’s race. Has only ever missed a place once from eight starts at the distance and that was last preparation when it dropped out last. Draws barrier 1, should get a nice run and looks a huge chance. Happy to take $3.75. The other is GO DOWN who looks the value in the race at $10. This horse ran 2nd to Thronum first up, who was then backed heavily to win a good race last weekend. He’s got a great second up record and should be right on the pace, which is typically the place you want to be at Ballarat. The concern with him is the 1200m but the price looks good enough to have something small each way on.
TIP: Royal Fashion (Best Bet) / Go Down EW
Race 2
Terrific race. I’ve got a clear top three here and we could back them all, but there’s also a few decent hopes outside of them. WRITTEN IN STONE goes on top after a good first up win which was his first start since being gelded. There will be plenty of improvement to come from him here and Weir will have all his runners peaking for today’s Ballarat meeting, which he’s openly admitted is a big day for his stable. He gets a good run from the barrier behind what could be a decent tempo, and the $10 on offer looks a good price. There is $11 available for BEYOND THE DREAM, which could also be a good price. This mare has made her way through the grades nicely, with a 5.25L maiden win followed up by a 2.75L win in BM64 grade last start. It’s not easy to make that jump in grade, and she looks very progressive. Should come across from barrier 11 to sit outside the leader and that gives her every chance. Lloyd Kennewell’s VIA BALCIANO was very unlucky in Adelaide last start as the short-priced favourite and looks like he could measure up here. SACRED SHAM resumes as a gelding and should get his chance, while MISTOFELEES is a blowout chance.
TIP: Written In Stone EW (Best Value) / Beyond The Dream EW
Race 3
Tough race, as most staying races in Victoria are these days. Interested I LYCURGUS who went close in Sydney last start and has had two 2400m runs under his belt in the lead up to today. Melham takes over for the ride today and he should get a decent run from the barrier. I’d prefer to be on horses that have had the run over a similar distance instead of stepping up sharply in trip. $5.50 is reasonable for him. The other that interests me is ETAH JAMES for Matt Cumani and Linda Meech. He’s gone through the grades this preparation, and comes off a win in BM70 grade over 2200m at Geelong. This is much tougher but he’s progressive and will enjoy a great run from barrier 3. $7.50 is a price worth entertaining. There’s no way we should rule out either Weir runner here – SHAMKIYR and ORMITO. They would need to improve but he always gets them to peak for the big days.
TIP: Lycurgus / Etah James EW
Race 4
There’s just no way I could bet with any confidence here, with nine of the 16 runners having their first race start, half of which haven’t trialled publicly. I’d lean to the Tony McEvoy runners here if I had to go in blind, as he typically has his two-year-olds well educated and ready to perform in these races. His Melbourne stable is also going particularly well. OUR TONINICCONI looks the pick of his runners with stable rider Luke Currie aboard from the good barrier, but I’d include FIRST DIAMOND at each way odds as well. I’ll be sitting this one out.
TIP: Our Toninicconi / First Diamond EW
Race 5
Keen to be with Darren Weir’s CAPTAIN HARRY here who comes out of a good form race behind Peaceful State, beaten by just a nose. They cleared out by six lengths from the third placed horse, and Peaceful State came out at his next start and ran 2nd in the G2 Sandown Guineas, so the form looks pretty hot. I wouldn’t expect the $6 to last much longer and he looks a terrific each way bet. GAUDI is another one I’ll be backing at $6.50 after a dominant win at Cranbourne last start. He also ran 2nd to the very talented Nature Strip on debut, so I’m hoping they’ll go forward once again and give them something to catch. JUST A JOKE is on debut here for the Waterhouse/Bott stable, and a rule of thumb at the moment is to include any Melbourne runner from that stable, but this horse’s trials have been pretty average to say the least, so perhaps we can risk him. PREPARE TO WIN was luckless last start and can bounce back, while FULTON STREET and PENINSULA MISS are two worth including at around 20/1.
TIP: Captain Harry / Gaudi EW
Race 6
Ultra-competitive race with a number of chances. I’m sticking with Weir again, this time with BONUS D’ORO, who looks like he’s been targeted at this race specifically. He was first up from a 48-day spell last start at Bendigo, and came wide on the turn before letting down nicely to run 3rd. He’s undefeated second up, so with improvement out of that run, I’d expect him to run a big race here at $6.50. Weir’s other runner is ROYAL ACE who comes off a good run at the Valley and draws for a good run. BURRUM’S BUZZ was a good winner in Adelaide last start, and CASTA resumed with a good effort first up over this track and distance, but both those horses were beaten by SIGA LA VACA last start, who has a great record at the track and distance. Somehow he’s $18 while the other two are single-figure chances. RIB EYE started favourite at Moonee Valley last start but dropped out and pulled up with an issue. He could easily bounce back. MR LIBERTY is one to include in wider numbers first up. If the rain comes, ZAGAYA and ELITE TIGER can’t be excluded. As you can see, it’s a wide open race!
TIP: Bonus D’Oro EW
Race 7
Pretty keen on URBAN RULER HERE, especially if the track ends up in the soft range by this race. We backed the horse when he won first up, and we took him on last start because he always runs flat second up (four starts, zero placings). But he tends to bounce back at his third up run because he’s never lost when third up. He’s won three of his four races on soft ground, he draws well, and if the rain comes, expect him to be well backed. Taking the $4.80 now. MILWAUKEE has returned in good style this preparation and he will give himself every chance tomorrow by racing up on the speed. He comes out of a strong form race behind Dollar For Dollar, who has since won again, and has won two of his three starts on soft ground. He’s a big danger. Weir once again holds a strong hand. BROADWAY AND FIRST motored home last start and looks set for this at his third run back, while OZI CHOICE was very heavily backed last start but didn’t run accordingly. He’s been well backed once again in early markets and one of these days he’ll justify that support. I have to take him on tomorrow but I’ll be sick if he wins. NEW UNIVERSE is a horse I have a lot of time for but his preparation has been a bit below par. At his best, he’d win this, because he has some serious talent, but I’m not sure barrier 1 is his go, and I can’t have him today based on what we saw last start. I think the horse that’s hugely over the odds is RIYADH. He’s got a good record on soft ground and drops back in distance after being tried over 2000m last start. Has the big weight but draws well. $35 looks big odds. REWARDING EFFORT can go better second up.
TIP: Urban Ruler / Riyadh EW
Race 8
Keen on two here. Weir inherits last start Flemington winner MR GARCIA from Andreas Wohler, and he gets in nicely here with just 54kg. If the rain comes, he’ll be even better suited with three wins from five starts on soft ground. Looks a deserved favourite in a relatively thin field. The value could be ONCIDIUM RULER who saluted for us last start at $17. He will be even better suited third up here and up to 2200m. If the rain comes, he may not be as well suited given he’s failed both times on soft ground, but if it is still a Good 4, he can run another bold race at each way odds. SONNTAG won the Ararat Cup last start and will lead the field once again here. He can be included, while GREY LION is racing well but the drop back in trip concerns me.
TIP: Mr Garcia / Oncidium Ruler EW
Race 9
Found this a really difficult race to assess and found it hard to split the leading runners. I think on best form, if DEBONAIRLY can overcome the lameness issue that caused her to fail first up at Flemington, she can win this. She’s got proven form on soft ground and she was beating the likes of Global Glamour in the trials leading up to her first run this prep. If you pen her run at Flemington, she should go close if she’s sound. She’ll be ridden forward from the wide gate so she’ll get her chance. In saying that, MODERN WONDER has been in good form and should go forward just as she did last start when bolting in at the Valley. DIVINE QUALITY definitely has the talent to win this and drops back from 1400m to the sprint trip of 1100m here. Typically I don’t like that in a horse’s preparation, but this horse is a sprinter and on best form is certainly good enough to win. ROYAL PHOENIX resumes as a gelding and was the winner of a Stakes race first up at Flemington last prep. He failed at his last run back in July but he pulled up with lameness and mucus so he can be forgiven for the poor display. If he has made the step up from two to three, then he can win. At the odds we get a good enough price to find out. The slightly unknown runner is PIRAPALA. Not quite sure what to make of its last start run but probably can’t be ruled out at $14.
TIP: Debonairly / Royal Phoenix EW
Race 10
Happy to side with CHAMOIS ROAD at each way odds of $6.50. He’s racing in great form in Adelaide and has a great record on soft ground should the rain come. His record at 1200m is also outstanding with six wins and five placings from 12 starts. He’s won his only start at the track and distance, draws well and should run a bold race. SUSPENSE was flattered by the track bias at the Valley last start and won’t be suited by the soft ground if it rains. GOT THE GOSS is another that might struggle if the track is soft. No knock on OBERLAND and TOY BOY who are both racing well, but I’ll take on FALCOOL who has yet to place from four runs over 1200m. JUST MAGICAL is a runner of particular interest, having his first start in Victoria after racing in WA. He’s got a good first up record and can go well at the distance and on soft ground, so from the good draw I’d include him in your numbers. SMART DART can improve if the track is still in the Good range, and RUETTIGER is a chance at double figure odds. It’s an open race and an each way bet 1x3 on Chamois Road looks a safe play to end the day.
TIP: Chamois Road EW
QUADDIE
5, 7, 8, 10, 12, 14
5, 7, 9, 10
5, 7, 9, 10, 11
2, 5, 11, 12, 14
$100 = 13.33%
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
