Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Railway Stakes Day at Ascot on Saturday, November 25th, which is the first day of the Perth Racing Carnival (TABtouch Masters).
The Group 1 Railway Stakes headlines the nine-race card, which also features the Group 2 WA Guineas. The track will be a Good 4 and has been playing in outstanding order recently. The rail moves back to the 3m position for this meeting and it should continue to play fairly.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below, or you can listen to Episode 11 of the Before You Bet Podcast, where we’ve discussed every race on the card in great detail.
ASCOT RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 3 Tradesman
Best Value: Race 8 Ulmann
Race 1
Just the four worth mentioning here. I stated on the podcast that I was keen on GET OVER IT depending on what price he came up, but I didn’t expect him to open equal favourite. He’s under the odds at the moment for mine. He ticks some boxes in that he’s got the ability, he’s second up from a short let-up and gets the blinkers back on, but whether that warrants him being equal in the market with RHI’S ROCKET is another thing altogether. RHI’S ROCKET is racing in great form and was only run down by a smart one last start. She carries a similar weight and will jump straight to the front and give them something to chase. I’ve got her on top, but my only query would be the 1200m. I think she’s a much better 1000m-1100m horse. REMEMBER BERLIN is ready to win now at his fourth run back from a spell. He had no luck last start, caught wide the entire race. He’s got a good record at the track and distance and draws well in barrier 2 today. The big unknown is HOBART JONES, who is a classy horse resuming from a spell. He did nothing last prep but was coming off a 553-day break, so he’s had his issues. If he returns at his best he’d give this a good shake. Rhi’s Rocket on top but I could have something on Remember Berlin too.
TIP: Rhi’s Rocket
Race 2
Really like GUNNAGO as a horse but I’m leaning towards taking him on here with the sharp rise in weight and the awkward barrier draw. He was solid last start when chasing down a tearaway leader, but he got the perfect run on the day and I just don’t know if he’ll get that same run from barrier 8 here. In saying that, there’s every chance he might just be the best horse in the race. I’m hoping they take WAR JEUNE straight to the lead from the wide barrier. He’s racing in great form without quite cracking it for a win, but the form lines of the races he comes out of are strong. He ran into the likes of Floyd and Royal Star earlier this prep, and his record at the track and distance is good. He’ll need to be good from barrier 10, but I’m hoping he can get across to the rail and be hard to catch at $6. CRUACHAN is the other that I like from a betting perspective at $7. He was a bit plain over the 1400m last start but the form out of his past two starts has been very strong. Drops in weight today and can go close with the right run. Prepared to take on CASH ON CALL. He maps to get the perfect run from barrier 1, but I question how strong the form of his past couple of races is. Lorentinio is a horse that has come out of those races and he ran very poorly in midweek grade on Wednesday, so at the price I’ll take on the favourite.
TIP: War Jeune / Cruachan EW
Race 3
If TRADESMAN parades well here, he could be an absolute moral. The biggest concern with him is that he was scratched from a race last weekend with a hoof abscess, so the question is whether he’s back to 100% just one week later. That’s why it will be important to see him parade, but if he shows no signs of discomfort then he could be a good thing here. He was originally in the Railway Stakes field before being taken out by the handicapper, and first up he ran 3rd in the Northerly Stakes beaten less than half-a-length by Silverstream and Great Shot. That’s terrific form for a race like this, and although he was only fair last start, his record suggests he tends to race a touch flat second up. But importantly, his record also suggests he bounces back third up from a spell, as he’s won two of this three races when third up. He gets a big jockey change with Douglas Whyte taking the ride, draws perfectly and has a good record at the track and distance. I think he’s just the best horse in the race and if he’s 100% he’ll be very hard to beat. The $3 looks a great price; I’ll have half my stake on now and half after I watch him parade. PROPERANTES has won two on the bounce but I don’t think he’s suited here and he’s under the odds for mine. He drops back to 1400m where he’s raced nine times for just two placings, and I’m not sure barrier 1 is his go either. ZUCCHEROS is 1100m up to 1400m but gets a big jockey change with Pike taking the ride, while BOLLYWOOD BLITZ and ZARANTZ are the blowouts.
TIP: Tradesman (Best Bet)
Race 4
Two that particularly interest me here. The first is METEOROID, who has been in terrific form this preparation and drops back from 1400m to 1200m. Seven of her eight career wins have come over 1200m, and she’s never finished out of the top two at this track and distance. Just three starts ago she beat Silverstream over this distance, and two starts ago was beaten a length by Silverstream and Great Shot over 1400m. I think they’ll go forward from barrier 10, and if she gets the right run, she will be right in the finish. $7 is a great price. The other that appeals is TOP OF THE CLASS for Damian Lane and his father Michael. He’s had the two trials leading into this race and although he’s finished last in both of them, they were only small fields so I wouldn’t read into it too much. He’s undefeated first up and is a winner at the track and distance. Lane booked to ride is a huge positive and $8.50 is a price I’ll have a bet at. CRYSTAL FOUNTAIN obviously is the horse to beat and deserves favouritism. She comes over from Melbourne and was only beaten 1.25L last start by the likes of Lyuba and Savanna Amour. That form for a race like this is terrific, and Damien Oliver takes the ride. She’ll be very hard to beat. CELEBRITY DREAM will go back from barrier 11 and that makes me very happy to take her on at the price. VOLKOFF next best.
TIP: Meteoroid / Top Of The Class EW
Race 5
Ultra-competitive race here with several factors that come into play. ROCKON TOMMY was disappointing last start when he started favourite in a race won by TRULY BELONG. He paraded poorly on that day and my query is whether he’s come to the end of his first prep. But if he parades better and returns to the form he showed before last start, he could easily win this. He was also struck on the head by another rider’s whip last start at the 200m mark, which wouldn’t have been helpful. So there’s things I can forgive him for, but you’d be taking him on trust. OCEAN JEWEL is favourite and I’m happy to bet against her here. She was electric early this campaign but has been just average at her past two starts. She gets a drop back to 1200m here and the blinkers go on first time, which will both help, but at the odds I’ll take her on. IN LOVE WITH PARIS led last start before being run down very late by Truly Belong. Douglas Whyte goes on today and she can definitely go close again. TRULY BELONG box seated that day but draws barrier 11 today. That could be a positive if it allows him to wind up, but on the other hand he could just get too far back. He does look to be a very good horse though. The horse I’m really interested in at each way odds is HARD OF HEART. He’s had two starts this prep; first up he finished 3rd behind Truly Belong, but was caught four-wide the trip and was beaten less than a length. Last start he ran home well behind Fabergino – who ran them into the ground and ran a track record in the process. He gets a great draw here in barrier 2 and I think he’s the underrated horse in the race. Happy to back him at $7. KENTOO is the blowout after running 1:10.26 for the 1200m in his win last start. Include in exotics at 25/1. Backing both Truly Belong and Hard Of Heart, but wouldn’t discourage trifectas here with 3, 4, 5, 8, 11.
TIP: Truly Belong / Hard Of Heart EW
Race 6
I really, really like ROYAL STAR as a horse but I really don’t like the step up from 1500m to 2100m here, so I have to oppose her on that alone. She comes out of a good race behind the likes of Properantes and Variation, but she’ll be chasing a very good frontrunner and that sharp rise in distance may catch her out. That leaves me with TRAP FOR FOOLS on top, who will bounce straight to the lead and give them all something to chase from the 800m mark. His ability to quicken from the front at the 800m and catch the rest of the field flat footed is what’s seen him win so many races this preparation. This is an obvious step up in class, but with barrier 1 and Douglas Whyte on board he is a leading chance. SHINTA MANI will appreciate the step up in trip once again, and ITSAHYMN ran well last start and can’t be left out of the numbers.
TIP: Trap For Fools
Race 7
This is a ridiculously good race and the depth is quite incredible. Betting here could be a nightmare and there’s only one horse that really stands out to me that I’d be keen to have something on and that’s DEBELLATIO. As a two-year-old he won the Wa Sires’ Produce over 1400m in dominant fashion, beating the likes of champion two-year-old Lucy Mae and the favourite for this race, MONEY MAHER. He’s was good first up, finishing midfield behind Money Maher after being caught three-wide the trip. He’s undefeated second up, draws barrier 1 and looks a reasonable each way bet at $12. ACHERNAR STAR is another that can go well at double figure odds with the good draw and Craig Williams booked to ride, while it’s a shame the emergencies won’t get a run here, because BRUTUS MAXIMUS is a horse to definitely follow and at $51 I would have backed him. I could genuinely make a case for at least 10 horses here, but there’s no point going through them all. Incredibly tough race!
TIP: Debellatio EW
Race 8
Speaking of tough races, they don’t get much tougher than this. My thoughts don’t differ too much from what I posted before the barrier draw in my Railway Stakes: Early Betting Preview, so I suggest reading that for an in-depth look at what horses I’m backing and how I’ve staked my bets. I’ll be taking on BLACK HEART BART, who has to defy a weight carrying record with 59kg on his back. I think he’s better over 1400m than 1600m, too. He draws perfectly but history suggests it’s incredibly tough to win a Railway with that weight. I’ll also be taking on SCALES OF JUSTICE, unless he parades enormously. He has had such an interrupted preparation after getting injured in Melbourne, and it’s always been a race against time to have him fit for this race. I don’t believe he’s at 100% and in a race of this depth, he won’t win if he’s not at his best, especially with the extra weight this year. TOM MELBOURNE gets his chance today but is a perennial bridesmaid and I’ve got others ahead of him. So I’ll be taking on the three favourites! I’ve got Bart’s stablemate ULMANN on top. Weir is a freak at getting these horses to peak for their gran finals, and this has been his target race all along. From barrier 5 he gets a perfect run in the race and with Damian Lane aboard, I expect him to be going very close here at $13. I think the best of the locals is VARIATION, who profiles beautifully for this race. He has a similar profile to that of Scales Of Justice last year, and he’s got the right profile to win the race today. He’s come back in super order this preparation and was just given no chance last start when they snagged him out the back. He’s undefeated from three starts over 1600m and undefeated at the track and distance. Draws ideally in barrier 4 and should give a huge sight. ALL OUR ROADS is one of my top picks but the barrier draw makes it very hard for him today, while SOVEREIGN NATION is one I’ve had in my corner for several weeks. His run two starts ago behind Tosen Stardom would see him win this. He’ll need the tempo to be on, which I think it will be, and he should be finishing hard at double figure odds. I’ve saved on SUPPLY AND DEMAND and SILVERSTREAM, as well as GREAT SHOT, who is the blowout at $34. Ulmann, Variation, Sovereign Nation and All Our Roads will all be winning results for me, with Great Shot and Supply And Demand returning a small amount of profit. Silverstream gets me my money back.
TIP: Ulmann (Best Value) / Variation
Race 9
FRIARESQUE comes up favourite here after a solid run first up from a spell, but he was suited by the hot tempo that day and his record at the track, distance and second up don’t fill me with a great deal of confidence. Add to that the poor barrier, which means he’ll settle last in the run, and I find it hard to rate him as short as $3.50 here. SEE ME SIZZLE is racing in great form with three wins on the bounce. Pike takes over today and while I think he is a good chance of winning again, I’ve got one or two others that I like ahead of him. The first is MOSSERATI, who wound up gamely to finish 3rd to See Me Sizzle last start. He was only second up from a spell on that occasion, so third up here and with a 2kg weight swing on See Me Sizzle, he could turn the tables. Damien Oliver is a positive jockey booking which somewhat offsets the poor draw. $8 is an appealing price. FIRST AFFAIR is another one I’ll be on. She ran 2nd to See Me Sizzle last start (with Mosserati in 3rd), gets a 3kg weight swing and is somehow $15, while See Me Sizzle is $4.80. She ran 3rd to Properantes two starts ago, and Properantes then came out and won again, so the form is good. She has a good record at the track and distance and looks way over the odds for mine. PUSHIN’ SHAPES and POINT worth including.
TIP: Mosserati / First Affair EW
QUADDIE (playing a bit risky!)
7, 8
1, 2, 3, 9, 13, 14, 15, 16
4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 15, 16
2, 4, 5, 12
$100 = 22.32%
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
