Another exciting Round 18 as the top eight is a log-jam of teams fighting for a finals berth. The Swans remain clear but the Blues, Dockers and Bombers all stumbled to leave the door open for the experienced Cats and Lions to push for a top four spot. It's the closest finals race in years and it looks like it might also be an exciting Brownlow Medal count!
As usual, we’ll share our thoughts from every match of the AFL season, along with our Brownlow vote predictions and projections using our own system which has a proven profitable history over many years. For full details on how it works, see the section at the bottom of the page. We hope you'll use our free Brownlow tips to help you find value during the season and built a green book before the big night.
For links to every round of the season and full count, head to our 2024 Brownlow Medal Leaderboard page and check out the latest Brownlow Odds.
2024 AFL Brownlow Round 18 Overview
With the confirmed suspension to Isaac Heeney, the 2024 Brownlow Medal race is now wide open with a number of players a genuine chance to win which bodes for an exciting Brownlow Medal night! Lachie Neale is rapidly climbing the Brownlow leaderboard with another best afield performance, while Patrick Cripps, Nick Daicos, Noah Anderson, Errol Gulden, Chad Warner, Zak Butters and Tom Green all likely to be in the votes in Round 18 action.
Check out our 2024 Round 18 Brownlow votes below and our updated 2024 Brownlow leaderboard here!
2024 AFL Brownlow Votes - Round 18 Match Analysis
Collingwood 10.11.71 def by Geelong 13.13.91
The round started off with a clash between the last two premiers, with Geelong flexing their premiership muscle to knock the Pies out of the top 8. Gryan Miers (27 disposals, 7 marks, 1 goal), Max Holmes (27 disposals, 9 marks) and Tom Stewart (26 disposals, 9 marks) were their leading ball winners while Patrick Dangerfield (22 disposals, 6 clearances) gave them plenty of grunt out of the middle. Nick Daicos (32 disposals, 11 clearances) might pinch a vote while Darcy Cameron (18 disposals, 6 marks, 58 hitouts, 1 goal) was dominant in the ruck.
Gryan Miers - 2
Max Holmes - 2
Nick Daicos - 1
Patrick Dangerfield - 1
Hawthorn 13.9.87 def Fremantle 10.14.74
The Hawks continued to press for a top 8 spot as they knocked off Freo in Launceston. There weren't a lot of high possession winners so it will be interesting to see which way the Brownlow votes fall in this one. Will Day (24 disposals, 6 clearances) and James Worpel (24 disposals) were busy, Conor Nash (21 disposals, 10 clearances) was important with his clearances, Lloyd Meek (15 disposals, 51 hitouts) contributed in the ruck while James Sicily (13 disposals, 3 goals) was swung forward to be the match winner late. Luke Jackson (20 disposals, 6 tackles, 31 hitouts, 1 goal) and Andrew Brayshaw (23 disposals, 6 tackles, 1 goal) were among the best for Freo.
Will Day - 2
James Sicily - 2
Conor Nash - 1
Luke Jackson - 1
Sydney 20.18.138 def North Melbourne 9.5.59
The Swans brought the Roos crashing back to Earth with a thumping at the SCG. Chad Warner (31 disposals, 6 marks, 2 goal) was a star while Errol Gulden (41 disposals, 8 marks, 5 clearances) also ran amok. Logan McDonald (4 goals, 16 disposals, 7 marks) and Tom Papley (4 goals, 19 disposals) were unstoppable up forward while Brodie Grundy (20 disposals, 6 tackles, 35 hitouts, 1 goal) won the ruck battle. Hard to see any Roos getting near the votes in this one.
Chad Warner - 3
Errol Gulden - 2
Tom Papley - 1
Western Bulldogs 14.16.100 def Carlton 12.14.86
A big win for the Dogs over the Blues to keep them alive in the hunt for finals. Bailey Dale (31 disposals, 1 goal) won plenty of ball at half-back, Marcus Bontempelli (20 disposals, 9 tackles, 8 clearances, 1 goal) was good in the guts, and Tim English (19 disposals, 6 marks, 32 hitouts) won the ruck battle. Up forward it was Jamara Ugle-Hagan (4 goals, 20 disposals, 6 marks) and Riley West (4 goals, 11 disposals) who hit the scoreboard. Lionhearted Patrick Cripps (28 disposals, 8 tackles, 11 clearances, 2 goals) will have to attract votes despite the loss.
Jamara Ugle-Hagan - 3
Patrick Cripps - 2
Bailey Dale - 1
Adelaide 10.11.71 def St Kilda 5.9.39
The Crows got the better of the Saints in a wet weather slog on Saturday night. Rory Laird (31 disposals, 13 tackles, 7 clearances), Jordan Dawson (26 disposals, 9 tackles) and Jake Soligo (25 disposals) and Ben Keays (24 disposals, 8 tackles, 1 goal) were best in the conditions for the Crows. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (28 disposals, 7 marks), Mattaes Phillipou (20 disposals, 9 tackles, 1 goal) and Rowan Marshall (20 disposals, 9 tackles, 48 hitouts) gave their all for the Saints.
Rory Laird - 3
Ben Keays - 2
Jordan Dawson - 1
Melbourne 13.6.84 def Essendon 10.7.67
Melbourne enjoyed the wet conditions to account for the Bombers. Trent Rivers (29 disposals, 8 marks, 7 tackles, 8 clearances) was excellent with good support from Ed Langdon (31 disposals, 8 marks, 1 goal) and Clayton Oliver (25 disposals, 8 marks). The best player on the ground was arguably Nic Martin who kicked 4 goals to go with 26 disposals and 9 marks in an impressive performance. Dylan Shiel (28 disposals, 6 tackles) and Jordan Ridley (29 disposals, 10 marks) were also good for the Bombers.
Nic Martin - 3
Trent Rivers - 2
Ed Langdon - 1
Gold Coast 14.12.96 def Port Adelaide 12.10.82
Gold Coast have kept their perfect home ground record this season intact by defeating Port Adelaide. Noah Anderson was the stand out for the Suns with 29 disposals, 11 clearances and a goal and is a sneaky chance to poll very well on Brownlow night. Sam Flanders (30 disposals, 1 goal), Wil Powell (21 disposals, 9 marks, 1 goal) and Sam Collins (15 disposals, 9 marks) were also important. Zak Butters (35 disposals, 12 marks, 1 goal) and Dan Houston (34 disposals, 9 marks) won plenty of ball while Aliir Aliir (22 disposals, 14 marks) was kept busy in defence.
Noah Anderson - 3
Zak Butters - 1.5
Sam Flanders - 1.5
Richmond 12.12.84 def by GWS Giants 17.6.108
The Giants got the job done in a hard-fought win over the Tigers. Toby Greene (4 goals, 17 disposals) was the catalyst for the win, while Tom Green (37 disposals, 7 tackles) and Lachie Whitfield (35 disposals, 12 marks) won plenty of leather. Dion Prestia (27 disposals) was best for the Tigers.
Toby Greene - 3
Lachie Whitfield - 1.5
Tom Green - 1.5
West Coast 14.9.93 def by Brisbane 16.10.106
The Lions did enough to defeat a spirited Eagles, with reigning Brownlow medallist Lachie Neale (34 disposals, 9 tackles, 13 clearances, 2 goals) again closing the gap on his rivals with another best-on-ground performance. Hugh McLuggage (32 disposals, 6 marks, 6 tackles) and Josh Dunkley (26 disposals, 1 goal) are also a chance to be amongst the votes. Tim Kelly (29 disposals, 1 goal), Elliot Yeo (24 disposals, 6 tackles, 1 goal) and Liam Ryan (21 disposals, 9 marks, 2 goals) stood tall for the Eagles.
Lachie Neale - 3
Hugh McLuggage - 2
Tim Kelly - 0.5
Elliot Yeo - 0.5
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips.
