We have a new leader in our 2021 Brownlow Medal leaderboard. After an amazing month, Melbourne's Clayton Oliver is now on top of our counts after Brisbane's Hugh McLuggage failed to poll a Brownlow vote in Round 11. Ollie Wines, Darcy Parish and Touk Miller are the other players making waves in Round 11 and you can still get plenty of value on some of these guys in the Brownlow betting markets. It shapes to be an exciting Brownlow Medal count!
Check out our analysis and 2021 Brownlow Medal vote predictions for every game of Round 11 below!
You’ll be able to stay up to date with our 2021 Brownlow Medal leaderboard with links to round-by-round voting posted there.
Western Bulldogs 8.11.59 def by Melbourne 13.9.87
It was a disrupted preparation for the biggest game of the season, but it was the Dees who emerged as the premiership favourites as they took over top spot from the Dogs. The Dees were awesome, led by Clayton Oliver (33 disposals, 5 clearances), Max Gawn (21 disposals, 27 hitouts, 5 clearances, 1 goal) and James Harmes (23 disposals, 7 tackles, 5 clearances, 1 goal) in the middle. Jack Macrae was typically busy with 36 disposals, 9 tackles and 6 clearances, while Marcus Bontempelli collected 30 disposals, 8 tackles and 5 clearances but probably won’t be adding to his Brownlow tally.
Oliver has firmed right up in the Brownlow betting markets and is now $6.00 at Ladbrokes and second favourite in the marketl. f Oliver continues to take votes away from Gawn and Petracca, then he's going to be very hard to beat!
Clayton Oliver - 2.5
Max Gawn - 2.5
James Harmes - 1
Collingwood 6.15.51 def by Geelong 8.13.61
The scoreboard flattered the Pies in the end after they could only muster one goal in the first three quarters at an eerily empty MCG. Brendan Parfitt (30 disposals), Joel Selwood (26 disposals, 6 clearances) and Shaun Higgins (24 disposals, 11 marks) were good for the Cats in the middle, while Tom Stewart (23 disposals, 11 marks) was solid at half back and Tom Hawkins (21 disposals, 7 marks, 3 goals) was the best forward on the ground. The Pies got a spark when Jordan De Goey (26 disposals, 11 marks, 2 goals) went into the middle and he was arguably the best on ground.
Jordan De Goey - 3
Tom Hawkins - 2
Tom Stewart - 0.5
Brendan Parfitt - 0.5
Brisbane 19.15.129 def GWS Giants 10.5.65
Brisbane were on fire early and never gave the Giants a sniff in a big victory. Mitch Robinson played an almighty game with 30 disposals, 12 marks and 4 goals and would have to be best on ground, with Dayne Zorko (35 disposals, 6 marks, 6 clearances, 2 goals) the next best. Tim Taranto (36 disposals, 8 marks, 6 tackles, 5 clearances) was prolific, while Callan Ward (32 disposals, 8 marks, 2 goals) was also very good.
Mitch Robinson - 3
Dayne Zorko - 2
Tim Taranto - 1
St.Kilda 12.16.88 def North Melbourne 10.8.68
The Saints did enough to get the points but hardly impressed against the lowly Kangaroos. Luke Dunstan returned to the side and helped curtail Ben Cunnington while also picking up 26 disposals, 13 tackles and 7 clearances. Jack Steele (24 disposals, 12 tackles, 7 clearances), Brad Crouch (26 disposals, 9 tackles, 1 goal) and Jack Billings (19 disposals, 7 marks, 2 goals) were also influential. Aaron Hall continues to be kept busy in the backline as he racked up 33 disposals and 7 marks for the Roos.
Luke Dunstan - 3
Brad Crouch - 1
Jack Steele - 1
Aaron Hall - 1
Gold Coast 17.11.113 def Hawthorn 11.10.76
The Suns were too slick for Hawthorn in a game that was relocated to Sydney. Touk Miller was outstanding with 37 disposals, 9 marks, 7 tackles and a goal, and was well supported by Jack Lukosius (27 disposals, 14 marks, 1 goal), Brandon Ellis (28 disposals, 10 marks, 1 goal) and Izak Rankine (19 disposals, 6 marks, 4 goals). Liam Shiels (27 disposals, 7 marks, 6 tackles, 8 clearances) tried hard for the Hawks.
Touk Miller - 3
Jack Lukosius - 2
Izak Rankine - 1
West Coast 11.5.71 def by Essendon 12.15.87
It was a mighty win for the Bombers in the west after trailing by as much as 29 points in the second quarter. Darcy Parish (36 disposals, 11 clearances) and Zach Merrett (37 disposals, 5 tackles) are likely to figure in the votes, while Kyle Langford (28 disposals, 9 marks, 1 goal) and Dyson Heppell (22 disposals, 9 marks) provided good support. Dom Sheed (43 disposals, 6 clearances, 1 goal) was prolific for the Eagles while Nic Naitanui (40 hitouts, 20 disposals, 6 tackles, 7 clearances) was dominant in the middle.
It's always going to be hard to get votes from the ball magnet Zach Merrett but Darcy Parish's form is undeniable and if he can get the nod here, he's be right among the contenders on Brownlow night. You can currently back him at $24 at Betfair.
Darcy Parish - 2.5
Zach Merrett - 2.5
Dom Sheed - 1
Richmond 17.9.111 def Adelaide 12.11.83
The Tigers’ stars were back in action and they looked strong as they accounted for the Crows in a game relocated to Sydney. Jack Riewoldt rolled back the clock with 20 disposals, 14 marks, 5 goals and an amazing mark that will have to be considered for Mark of the Year. Jayden Short (23 disposals, 12 marks), Trent Cotchin (20 disposals, 10 tackles, 6 clearances, 1 goal) and Dustin Martin (23 disposals, 1 goal) were also influential. Ben Keays (31 disposals, 9 tackles, 11 clearances) and Rory Sloane (29 disposals) tried hard for the Crows, while Taylor Walker (16 disposals, 6 marks, 4 goals) was dangerous up forward.
Jack Riewoldt - 3
Trent Cotchin - 2
Ben Keays - 0.5
Taylor Walker - 0.5
Sydney 15.10.100 def Carlton 11.12.78
A close game at the SCG saw the Swans get control in the final quarter to emerge victorious. Isaac Heeney won the Goodes-O’Loughlin Medal for his 22 disposals, 14 marks and 3 goals and should pick up the three Brownlow votes as well. Callum Mills (25 disposals, 7 tackles) was also influential for the Swans. Votes should be heading Carlton’s way with Patrick Cripps (27 disposals, 6 tackles, 7 clearances, 3 goals) putting in an immense game, while Sam Walsh (33 disposals, 9 clearances) was also superb.
Isaac Heeney - 3
Patrick Cripps - 2
Sam Walsh - 1
Port Adelaide 18.7.115 def Fremantle 9.15.69
The Power were fast out of the blocks and ran away with a comfortable win over the Dockers. Karl Amon had 16 touches in the first quarter alone as he ended with 27 disposals, 6 tackles and a goal. Ollie Wines (35 disposals, 7 tackles, 8 clearances) and Travis Boak (31 disposals) won plenty of ball, while Charlie Dixon (18 disposals, 5 marks, 3 goals), Sam Powell-Pepper (20 disposals, 5 tackles, 3 goals) and Robbie Gray (23 disposals, 2 goals) hit the scoreboard. Adam Cerra (27 disposals, 6 marks, 5 clearances) was best for Freo.
Ollie Wines - 3
Karl Amon - 2
Charlie Dixon - 0.5
Sam Powell-Pepper - 0.5
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips.
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