The AFL week started with Covid controversy and it's ended with Covid controversy, but in between we saw a full nine matches to complete Round 4 of a crazy 2020 AFL season. There have been plenty of shock results but the cream is starting to rise to the top with our 2020 Brownlow Medal leaderboard. Read on for our break down of every match and our Round 4 Brownlow vote predictions.
Our Brownlow Medal predictions and rolling Brownlow Medal tracker allow you to keep an eye on the Brownlow betting markets throughout the season, so that you can build a green book so that by the time the 2020 Brownlow Medal night rolls around we’re assured of a profit!
You’ll be able to stay up to date with our live 2020 Brownlow Medal leaderboard, while there will be links to round-by-round voting posted there.
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote predictor system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can then form a 'range' for each player (i.e. a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great features for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips, and of course, check out our 2020 AFL Brownlow Round 4 Vote Predictions below!
Can anyone stop Lachie Neale from winning the 2020 Brownlow Medal? Have Nat Fyfe's chances of back-to-back been blown up with his dodgy hamstring? Is Matthew Rowell a legitimate threat of the Rising Star - Brownlow double? Those are the questions being asked after Round 4 of the 2020 AFL season. Let's take a closer look at each match and see who were the stand out players and who might have collected the Brownlow votes.
Sydney 5.9.39 def by Western Bulldogs 10.7.67
Round 4 kicked off with the Dogs easily accounting for the Swans in Sydney. Marcus Bontempelli was awesome in the first half to set up the win and ended with 19 disposals, 7 tackles, 7 clearances and 2 goals. Tim English took on the twin towers of Sydney and came out on top to end with 22 disposals and 17 hitouts in arguably his best game. For the Swans, Josh Kennedy overcame a slow start to end with 19 disposals, 8 tackles and a goal, while Tom Papley was dynamic up forward with 4 goals from his 13 touches.
Marcus Bontempelli – 3
Tom Papley – 2
Tim English – 1
GWS Giants 10.6.66 def Collingwood 9.10.64
The Giants held on against the Pies with Toby Greene arguably their most influential player with 3 goals from 19 disposals. However Greene is not an umpire favourite. He hasn’t earned a free kick all season, but can he earn a few Brownlow votes? Lachie Whitfield (24 disposals) was back towards his best and Josh Kelly (21 disposals, 6 tackles, 1 goal ) was also good, while young gun Tom Green impressed with 18 disposals, 7 clearances and a goal. Scott Pendlebury (26 disposals, 7 clearances) was the leading ball winner, while Jeremy Howe (23 disposals, 6 marks) was having another great game before going down late with a severe knee injury.
Toby Greene – 3
Josh Kelly – 1.5
Scott Pendlebury – 1.5
Port Adelaide 13.11.89 def West Coast 6.5.41
The theme parks may be open, but West Coast are ready to pack up and go home from their Queensland holiday. They were again poor against Port Adelaide who remain undefeated on top of the ladder. Charlie Dixon was huge as he marked everything in sight on his way to 6 goals, 7 marks and 15 possessions. Brad Ebert (16 disposals, 2 goals) continued his good form while Hamish Hartlett (22 disposals, 1 goal) was also a strong contributor. Andrew Gaff (27 disposals) tried hard for the Eagles, while Josh Kennedy hit the scoreboard with 4 goals and 11 disposals.
Charlie Dixon – 3
Brad Ebert – 2
Hamish Harlett - 1
St.Kilda 15.3.93 def Richmond 10.7.67
The Tigers are looking shaky as St.Kilda were able to upset the premiers in convincing fashion. To rub salt into the wound it was former Tiger Dan Butler who won the Ian Stewart Medal for his 3 goals from 14 disposals. Whether the umpires agree with that remains to be seen. Jack Billings (25 disposals, 5 clearances) and Jack Steele (21 disposals, 10 tackles, 5 clearances) were important in the middle of the ground. Toby Nankervis (17 disposals, 7 tackles, 1 goal, 26 hitouts) made a great return to the side, but Rowan Marshall countered that with his 15 disposals, 2 goals and 25 hitouts. Shane Edwards (24 disposals, 8 clearances, 1 goal) and Dion Prestia (25 disposals) tried hard to no avail. Really tough game to pick votes.
Dan Butler – 3
Jack Billings – 1
Jack Steele – 1
Toby Nankervis - 1
Essendon 8.3.51 def by Carlton 7.10.52
The Blues have won another thriller as they stumbled home against the Bombers. David Cuningham had a day out with 28 disposals, while Sam Docherty (32 disposals) and Michael Gibbons (25 disposals, 5 tackles) also won plenty of ball. Levi Casboult (14 disposals, 9 marks, 3 goals) continued his improvement with another strong game. Andrew McGrath (20 disposals) was best for the Dons.
David Cuningham – 3
Sam Docherty – 2
Michael Gibbons – 0.5
Levi Casboult – 0.5
Gold Coast 10.4.64 def Fremantle 8.3.51
2020 continues to shock as Gold Coast are sitting second on the ladder! Incredible. They accounted for Freo and once again it was largely thanks to rookie Matthew Rowell who is emerging as a superstar of the competition. In just his 4th AFL match, Rowell picked up 20 disposals, 7 clearances and 2 goals and will no doubt be among the votes once again. Brandon Ellis (20 disposals) was also good while Jarrod Witts (12 disposals, 38 hitouts) won the ruck battle. Darcy Tucker was best for Freo with 20 disposals and a goal.
Matthew Rowell – 3
Brandon Ellis – 2
Jarrod Witts - 1
Betting note: Rowell is now into 3rd favourite to win the Brownlow at $9 at Betfair. While he is in great form and Gold Coast are playing well, we feel the bubble has to burst and his price is now far too low. If you don’t have other strong positions on the favourites already, then look to lay Rowell at that price.
Nat Fyfe also did his hamstring in this match. He was one of the favourites for the Brownlow but it looks hard for him to come back from this setback in a shortened season.
Brisbane 10.23.83 def Adelaide 7.4.46
An inaccurate Lions easily accounted for the hapless Crows with Lachie Neale likely to be leading the Brownlow Medal Leaderboard after Round 4. Neale collected 31 disposals and hit the scoreboard 6 times – the only problem was they were all behinds! Hugh McLuggage (24 disposals, 1 goal), Jarrod Berry (23 disposals, 10 tackles) and Jarryd Lyons (24 disposals, 5 clearances) were also enormous. Brad Crouch was best for the Crows with 24 disposals.
Lachie Neale – 3
Hugh McLuggage – 2
Jarrod Berry – 1
Melbourne 6.8.44 def by Geelong 7.5.47
A horrible game of Australian Rules Footy. The less said about it is probably for the better. The Cats played keepings off to boost their stats with Cam Guthrie (24 disposals, 1 goal), Sam Menegola (25 disposals), Patrick Dangerfield (22 disposals, 1 goal) and Joel Selwood (23 disposals) among their best. Clayton Oliver (23 disposals, 7 clearances) was best for Melbourne.
Cam Guthrie – 2.5
Sam Menegola – 2.5
Patrick Dangerfield – 0.5
Clayton Oliver – 0.5
Hawthorn 8.10.58 def North Melbourne 8.6.54
Another poor match to finish the round with the Roos turning it on late but falling short against the Hawks. Chad Wingard (18 disposals, 3 goals) was dangerous, hitting the scoreboard in the low-scoring game, while James Worpel (24 disposals, 9 tackles) and Liam Shiels (22 disposals, 1 goal) were strong. Shaun Higgins (30 disposals) was rampant, Jy Simpkin (23 disposals, 7 clearances, 1 goal) was again good, while Todd Goldstein (18 disposals, 30 hitouts) won the aerial battle. If defensive efforts count in Brownlow votes, then Ben McEvoy is an outside chance after doing a great ob to restrict Ben Brown to just 3 disposals for the day.
Chad Wingard – 3
Shaun Higgins - 2
James Worpel - 1
Betting note: If you fancy a flier then Chad Wingard isn't the worst bet going around at the moment at $151 at Bet365. We have him on 7 votes after 4 rounds, and 3rd on the leaderboard, which may be a tough ambitious, but he's classy enough to stand out to umpires, especially with his goal scoring ability in low scoring games. Either way, the odds are overs.
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