One again Before You Bet is back with our rolling Brownlow Medal Tracker for the 2018 season. We’ll be providing comments for every game of the season, along with our vote predictions to help with your projections for the 2018 AFL season.
Our Brownlow predictions are one of the most popular aspects of the site with punters able to scoop huge profits using the information found in these pages. You’ll be able to stay up to date with our current Top 20 2018 Brownlow Medal leaderboard, while there will be links to every single round-by-round voting posted there.
For those who need a refresher on how our Brownlow vote system works, we assign 6 votes per game so that our total votes are the same as the official 3-2-1 system, however we break up those votes as we see fit across potentially more than three players. Some games are really tough to call which way the votes will go, so a better predictive model is to split performances and assign half points to each player where there is doubt. So for example if two players dominate and it's too hard to split their performance, they are given 2.5 votes each, with the remaining 1 vote given to another player(s). This will give us a predictive total closer to their true total, rather than guessing. We can form a 'range' for each player (ie a min and max we think players can poll) with the thinking behind this that the variations from the half votes will even out over the long term.
If you intend on using our Brownlow votes to bet why not consider one of the best Australian sports betting sites which offer some great incentives for new customers. Also be sure to check out our Twitter page at @Before_You_Bet and continue returning to the site for our AFL tips, and of course, check out our 2018 Brownlow Round 4 Vote Predictions below!
Adelaide 9.4.58 def by Collingwood 16.10.106
For the second week in a row, Steele Sidebottom was arguably the best-on-ground. He shut down Rory Sloane early before going on a rampage late, to amass 43 disposals. Brodie Grundy was also enormous as he overcame the wet conditions to win the ruck duel with a massive 40 hitouts, 33 disposals and a goal. Adam Treloar was sensational with 36 touches and 11 tackles, and probably deserves more than one vote, while youngster Jaidyn Stephenson is a chance for a vote for his five goals.
Steele Sidebottom – 2.5
Brodie Grundy – 2.5
Adam Treloar - 1
GWS 11.16.82 def Fremantle 7.9.51
A scrappy game in windy Canberra and a lot of even contributors will make votes tricky in this one. Nick Haynes was a rock at half-back with 29 touches and 15 marks, while Callan Ward was the major ball winner with 34 disposals. Stephen Coniglio is a chance to poll in each of the first four rounds, but it might only be one vote here for 27 touches, 7 tackles and a goal. Brett Deledio also played his best game for the Giants with 28 disposals. For Freo, Stephen Hill was best with 28 disposals, 9 marks and a goal.
Nick Haynes – 3
Callan Ward – 2
Stephen Coniglio – 0.5
Brett Deledio – 0.5
Richmond 16.14.110 def Brisbane 2.5.17
A horror day for Brisbane as Richmond dominated everywhere on the ground. Dustin Martin would be a big chance for 3 votes kicking a career-high 6 goals, but only had 17 touches in total. Trent Cotchin was again good with 26 possessions, which was matched by Reece Conca. Jason Castagna (15 touches, 3 goals) and Kane Lambert (24 touches, 2 goals) enjoyed the dominance up forward.
Dustin Martin - 3
Trent Cotchin - 2
Kane Lambert – 0.5
Reece Conca – 0.5
Bulldogs 11.13.79 def by Sydney 13.8.86
After a goal-less first half, Lance Franklin was the difference in the second half, getting the Swans over the line with 16 disposals, 10 marks and 3 goals. Luke Parker was instrumental in the first half, ending with 21 disposals, 10 crunching tackles and 3 goals. Dean Rampe (23 disposals) was strong across half back, and Isaac Heeney (20 disposals, 2 goals) was also a good contributor. Jack Macrae led the ball winners on ground with 34 disposals.
Lance Franklin – 2.5
Luke Parker – 2.5
Jack Macrae – 0.5
Isaac Heeney – 0.5
North Melbourne 18.8.116 def Carlton 4.6.30
The Roos smashed the Blues in Hobart with local boy Ben Brown dominating up forward with 5 goals from 17 possessions. He was fed by Shaun Higgins who starred in the midfield with 35 possessions and a goal, while Shaun Atley (22 disposals, 3 goals), Ben Cunnington (22 disposals, 8 tackles) and Scott Thompson (25 disposals, 15 marks) will fight out the minor vote. Ed Curnow was best for the Blues with 26 touches and 7 tackles.
Shaun Higgins – 2.5
Ben Brown – 2.5
Shaun Atley – 1
West Coast 21.13.139 def Gold Coast 9.5.59
Elliot Yeo was best on ground in the Eagles big win with 33 disposals and 11 marks. He was well supported by Chris Masten (30 disposals, 12 marks, 2 goals), Andrew Gaff (32 disposals, 9 marks) and Jeremy McGovern (22 disposals, 13 marks). Up forward, Josh Kennedy returned to the side with 5 goals and Jamie Cripps had 4 majors.
Elliot Yeo - 3
Chris Masten – 1.5
Jeremy McGovern – 1.5
Essendon 16.10.106 def Port Adelaide 12.12.84
The Bombers inflicted the Power’s first loss of the season with Michael Hurley dominating across half-back with 29 disposals and 15 marks. Dyson Heppell (31 disposals, 7 tackles) and Zach Merrett (29 disposals, 8 tackles) were influential in the midfield, while Jake Stringer was good up forward with 4 goals. Robbie Gray was the standout player for the visitors with 39 possessions.
Michael Hurley - 2.5
Robbie Gray - 2.5
Dyson Heppell - 1
Hawthorn 18.7.115 def Melbourne 6.12.48
Nathan Jones did a great stopping job on Tom Mitchell, but that didn’t stop the Hawks running away with an easy victory. Liam Shiels racked up 31 disposals, along with 14 tackles, while Jaegar O’Meara was also very good with 26 disposals and 2 goals. Up forward Jack Gunston was in great touch with 19 possessions, 8 tackles and 2 goals, while Luke Breust hit the scoreboard with 4 goals from 19 touches. Max Gawn monstered 66 hitouts while Clayton Oliver had 28 touches for the Dees but hard to see them doing enough to grab a vote.
Liam Shiels – 3
Jaegar O’Meara – 2
Luke Breust – 1
Geelong 15.13.103 def St.Kilda 7.14.56
The next generation of Geelong youngsters were too strong for the poor Saints, with Brendan Parfitt emerging as a player to watch with a career-high 28 disposals and 3 goals which should get him maximum votes. Patrick Dangerfield (25 disposals, 6 tackles) and Joel Selwood (27 disposals, 7 tackles) helped to win the midfield battle, but maybe didn’t do enough to attract votes. Daniel Menzel was a spark for the Cats with 5 goals from 16 disposals, while Tom Stewart patrolled the backline with 20 touches and 8 marks.
Brendan Parfitt - 3
Daniel Menzel - 2
Tom Stewart - 1
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