Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Warwick Farm on Saturday, December 23rd.
We have a nine-race card on a Good 4 track with the rail in the True position.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below, and we’ve also previewed a few of the more fancied betting races below in the Before You Bet Podcast!
WARWICK FARM RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 9 Noire
Best Value: Race 3 Invicta EW
Race 1
Happy to take on the Chris Waller-trained favourite CHARGE here, who was beaten 3.8L on debut and to my eye, would need to improve significantly to win this. I think he’s under the odds at $3.90 and there’s a couple others I’d rather be playing on. Happy to be with the Godolphin-trained CONDEMNED who comes off a reasonable trial win. I’m more than happy to back the Godolphin horses in Sydney, just not Melbourne! We’ve seen a few talented Godolphin juveniles step out in recent weeks and from barrier 8, I’d expect this one to roll forward and prove hard to beat. FUTOOH represents the Lindsay Park team and despite finishing last in a trial, she should run a big race here. Her trial was luckless and she went to the line under a hold after finding traffic, but David Hayes wouldn’t have her here if she wasn’t a live chance, so she’s worth having something on at $5.50. LEONARDA and LAGARDE others to throw into numbers at double figure odds.
TIP: Condemned / Futooh EW
Race 2
Small field here and again Waller dominates the market with SPARKY LAD and SCREAM PARK. I’m less confident taking him on here but I’m going to with BULL MARKET for Peter and Paul Snowden. This horse was luckless first up at Canterbury before going down narrowly on soft ground in a small field at Newcastle. He then came out last start and won over 1400m at Rosehill in similar grade to this. Steps up to the mile now which looks suitable and I’d rather take the $4.60 on offer for him than the shorter odds for the Waller pair. SPARKY LAD also won last start over 1400m but rises to 59kg in weight here, so my concern lies with the fact he carries 3kg more than anything else. SCREAM PARK won well on a heavy track last start over 1400m at this track. The fact he’s won at this track is a positive but the query is stepping out of maiden grade straight to a BM77, and the fact he’ll be on a firm track this time rather than a heavy track. COLESBERG not hopeless, CHOICE HARVEST outclassed.
TIP: Bull Market
Race 3
Interested in two runners here. Happy to be with BASTIA who only went down narrowly to KING DARCI last time out. He gets a 2kg weight swing on that horse for just a nose margin, and his record also suggests he’s ready to peak third up from a spell. It was encouraging to see him run so well second up, as well as on firm ground, last start so he looks well placed here at $3.90. I think INVICTA represents a bit of value at $17. He bolted in to win the Cessnock Cup two starts ago and was beaten just 3.3L by King Darci and Bastia last start. Gets out to the mile here and has won his only start at the track and distance, so with a small weight swing he might be able to feature in the finish at good odds. CELLARMAN has had three starts at the track without placing so I’d be cautious taking the skinny odds, while KING DARCI goes up 3kg in weight and looks up against it. No knock CARELESS CHOICE.
TIP: Bastia / Invicta EW
Race 4
TAB Highway Handicap here and not one I’m overly keen to invest in but I’ve sided with VOLPE. He was a dominant winner of a similar race over 1200m two starts ago, and was good once again in a 1400m version last time out. He settled at the rear from a wide gate and ran home strongly to be beaten 1.4L, so the step up to the mile looks as if it will suit. From the wide gate he will find himself back once again but should have enough time to wind up down the outside. MATE STORY is fresh from a short let-up and gets his chance in a winnable race. ISLA TRISTANA and ROSEITO both chances, while DEVLANN comes off two huge wins and creates interest at big odds.
TIP: Volpe EW
Race 5
Near on impossible to pick the winner here given Waller has six runners in the race. Landed with MORNINGTON on top who ran home well last start and wasn’t beaten far at all. Gets a good draw here and the step up to 2100m should suit. Has had three runs back from a spell now and should be at peak fitness for today. CARZOFF ran 3rd in that race and gets in with a similar weight here. I doubt the inside draw will see him sit any closer as he tends to race back in the field anyway, but he’s in with a big chance once again. LEAD CHOREOGRAPHER ran 2nd in the race and has claims once again, while TUMULTUOUS comes off a good win in worse grade at Canterbury. Happy to take on GREAT GLEN dropping back from 2400m to 2100m.
TIP: Mornington
Race 6
Very competitive race. Happy to stick with TEST THE WORLD on top who turned the tables on the promising Bon Amis last start. She looks destined for better races and from the inside gate should get a very similar run to what she did last start. She’s won three from four at the distance and has won her only start at this track and distance, so despite the rise in weight she should go close again. BRATISLAVA returned from a spell with a good win at Canterbury and from the good draw looks the value in the race at $7.50. SUGAR BELLA was my best bet of the day last weekend before being scratched at the gates due to Kerrin McEvoy’s injury. Her win first up was terrific and the form out of the race is strong, so with the light weight here I’d expect her to measure up. EUSEBIO a big watch first up from a spell, IL MIO DESTINO not out of it at big odds.
TIP: Test The World / Bratislava EW
Race 7
I’ll be taking on SUPPLY AND DEMAND here purely because I can’t take such short odds about a horse that pulled up from its last start with a lameness issue and then had to fly back from the other side of the country. To get it back into good enough shape to race here is astounding in itself so if it wins it will be a serious training effort. Happy to stick with INVINZABEEL who has won its last two starts under a fairly big weight each time. Obviously rises in grade here but drops in weight as a result. No reason it can’t be competitive again today at $5. I think COOLRING is the value at $8.50, which is already shorter than what I saw earlier. He’s had three runs back from a spell and is ready to fire now with just 51kg on his back. JAPONISME has won two trials since we last saw him and could be the blowout at big odds if he somehow returned to his best.
TIP: Invinzabeel / Coolring EW
Race 8
Keen to have a throw at the stumps with two at big odds here. The first is MAGICAL STANCE who gets the blinkers applied for the first time here and carries just 53kg with the claim for Andrew Adkins. Had plenty of excuses first up after travelling wide throughout, and his second up record suggests he’ll run a big race here. $12 is an appealing price. TOWER OF SONG is the other I’m interested in having something on at $31. He did nothing first up but rarely does on wet ground. Gets some weight relief here and gets back onto firm ground so from the good draw, he’s certainly not hopeless at the big odds. PIPELINE best of the favoured runners.
TIP: Magical Stance EW / Tower Of Song EW
Race 9
Looks a nice race once again for NOIRE here who has won both starts this preparation. Stays at the 1400m after winning over this distance last start and the rise to 58.5kg shouldn’t be an issue. Prepared to forgive her for her past failings at this track – she was caught hopelessly wide on one occasion and was sent for a spell immediately after the other. Blake Shinn rides from the good gate and she looks very well placed once again. The stablemate MISS BALLANTYNE ran 2nd to her last start and gets a weight swing here so has every chance of turning the tables here. PECANS is another in great form having won her past two but the 1400m is a serous query for mine so I’m prepared to take her on at that price.
TIP: Noire
QUADDIE
1, 3, 7
2, 5, 6, 7
3, 5, 7, 10, 11
3, 6, 7
$100 = 55.55%
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