This weekend a new Lightweight champion will be crowned as Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira go toe-to-toe to claim the crown left by Islam Makhachev in the main event. The Flyweight title is also on the line in the co-main as Alexandre Pantoja faces a unique challenge in explosive Kiwi Kai Kara-France. We take a look at the two title fights and one other on the main card below.
UFC 317 Predictions & Tips
Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira Prediction & Tip
Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira come into the main event with a finishing rate of almost 90% in their MMA careers. But it is the Spaniard who is heavily favoured to get another finish.
Topuria moves up to 155 pounds for only the second time in his career as the weight cut unsurprisingly became too difficult. However, anyone thinking he can sweep past the former champ is naive.
Since losing to Islam Makhachev, Oliveira has won two of his three bouts since, most recently outpointing Michael Chandler. I could also mount a case he deserved to get the nod against Arman Tsarukyan as well and if not for his shorts falling off, the Brazilian almost certainly would have submitted him.
On the other side is Topuria, a power puncher with strong grappling. But don’t be fooled he won’t be taking this to the ground against an elite grappler like ‘Do Bronx’.
Oliveira gets hit a lot and that often leads to the misconception that he isn’t a great striker. However, the Brazilian uses his length and push kicks brilliantly to slowly wear down his opponents.
The question therefore for me is can he avoid the big shot? I expect Topuria’s punching power to translate well at 155 pounds, he did after all knock out Max Holloway, the first man to do so. Even still I am very tempted to pick the upset as I feel Oliveira is being terribly disrespected, with my odds for him around the $3 mark instead of the near $5 available.
But for my best bet, I will be going with the fight to go over one and a half rounds. I don’t see Topuria just running through him and Oliveira presents a tricky puzzle to figure out. I expect this fight to go into the championship rounds, so I will take the over 1.5 at decent enough odds.
Over 1.5 rounds
$1.72 (3 Units)
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France Prediction & Tip
Alexandre Pantoja is at the spot in his title reign where he appears unbeatable, but in my eyes faces his toughest challenge in Kiwi Kai Kara-France. Kara-France failed in his previous shot at UFC gold, floored by a body kick by former champion Brandon Moreno.
Statistically, Kara-France is a long shot to dethrone Pantoja, who hasn’t lost a fight since 2020 and has defended his belt three times. However, on the feet, Kara-France is a puzzle. The Kiwi is both aggressive and powerful, carrying a punch as hard as anyone at Flyweight.
Pantoja will look to use Kara-France’s aggression against him, counter-punching and shooting to the back when he overswings. But I also have a feeling that this might be the fight he gets cracked. Pantoja’s chin has always been granite but Kara-France carries serious power and the Brazilian is definitely hittable. Call it a hunch mixed with logic but I give Kara-France a far greater chance of pulling off the upset than oddsmakers and therefore he’s a bet.
Kai Kara-France to win
$3.40 (2 Units)
Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van Prediction & Tip
Joshua Van is being talked up like he is the man to take the Flyweight title off Pantoja but I just don’t see it. He’s on a four-fight win streak, is 7-1 in the Octagon, steps in here against Brandon Royval on just two weeks’ notice and is the bookmakers' favourite.
But don't forget about Royval's body of work. Royval has wins over former champ Moreno and challenger Tatsuro Taira and can finish a fight in the blink of an eye. He is a strong striker who can sniff out a submission from anywhere.
He faces Van who can be flat-footed and was lit up on the feet by Charles Johnson less than 12 months ago. Granted since then he has gone 4-0 but geez recency bias is an incredible thing. Back Royval with confidence, likely getting a stoppage win.
Brandon Royval to win
$2.05 (4 Units)
