Midweek action in Melbourne once again comes to us from Sandown on the Hillside course this week. The track is currently rated a Soft 5; there is no rain predicted for Tuesday but there is rain forecast for Wednesday, so I'd suspect we will probably start on a Good 4 and end in the Soft range.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below.
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Sandown Racing Tips for Wednesday, August 23rd
Race 1
Prepared to take on the favourite PREPARE TO WIN here, despite representing the strong trainer/jockey combo. She comes through some strong form races in preparation for this and gets blinkers on for the first time, but I think this may be a fairly deep race. We've seen in previous weeks that these midweek maidens with horses on debut can contain some gems - prime example being Crown Witness who went on to defeat Catchy on the weekend. There's two unraced horses that I'll be backing at the good odds here. The first is SHELLEY BEACH who comes out of the same stable as Crown Witness. This filly had one trial at the end of last year and another in March, both of which were fairly uninspiring. But she returned with a jumpout at Caulfield earlier this month which she won, and I like the look of that preparation. Craig Williams is booked for the ride which I think is a very strong sign and I think the $8 available is a nice price. The second horse I'll be backing is SWORN EVIDENCE on debut for Darren Weir and Damian Lane. She's had no public trials but Weir often has them ready when they run in town, and the combination with Damian Lane is a lethal one. In these sorts of races it's very risky to be letting an unseen Weir horse go around at these odds, especially with Lane booked for the ride. $8.50 appeals. One horse at a big price I thought could run well is CARRIBEAN PEARL. On debut she was beaten 2L by Ploverset and Madeenaty, and she had legitimate excuses in two subsequent starts. Returns for a spell here and has ability based on her debut run.Include at $23.
TIP: Shelley Beach / Sworn Evidence EW
Race 2
Really tough race to assess and one I just want to stay out of for a few reasons. SHEER MADNESS, SKY PUNCH and KEDLESTON all come out of the same race at the Caulfield meeting that was later abandoned due to high winds, while MUTAMAYEL comes off a maiden win at Pakenham Synthetic, which is hard to gauge given all the times at Pakenham have been very slow in recent times. So the form is hard to line up and the Caulfield race is hard to rely on. Having said that, Sheer Madness did have plenty of market support in the lead up to his win at Caulfield, and he travelled three-wide without cover the whole race before finishing strongly to win. He's only having his fourth run of the prep here so he can go on with it despite the slight rise in weight. SKY PUNCH has the most scope for improvement out of that Caulfield race and with Williams on board today he will get his chance. MUTAMAYEL can win but too short for me to back. Sheer Madness on top for me but happy to stay out.
TIP: Sheer Madness
Race 3
Another tough race but I'm keen to have something small on a couple at longer odds. The first is EIRA for Danny O'Brien and Damian Lane. I was on this horse on debut at Geelong where he was stuck three, four and even five wide during the race, and still managed to finish 5th, beaten 2.5L. Jumps straight from 1300m to 1600m and Lane sticks with him. This isn't the strongest field, so the $10 that is available is worth having a nibble at. The second horse that caught my eye was the debutante CITY CHAP. He's had no public trials but I think Beau Mertens is a strong booking for Cindy Alderson. His breeding suggests he will get over further, but at the $31 fixed odds that's available, he's a bit of value, especially with $8 for a place. PRETTY MAMA has been crying out for extra ground and when she finally got it last start she never saw daylight in the straight. Draws wide and will get a long way back but that run was a flashing light. $6 available for her.
TIP: Eira EW / City Chap EW (Best Value)
Race 4
Very keen on INVICTUM DOMINA here. I've been keen on her every start this prep but every time she has had things go wrong, such as wide barriers and getting pestered in the lead by outsiders. She drops back from Saturday grade here, and most importantly, she finally draws a barrier. Very positive jockey booking with Thompson taking a bit of weight off, she's got a great record at this track and distance, and she should be able to jump straight to the front from barrier 5 without using any fuel. The win from JOURNEYGIRL last start was no fluke and she looks to have come back really well this prep. First up she was absolutely luckless at Geelong, and then saluted at big odds on the Lakeside course here last start. Oliver jumps off but Craig Williams takes over so no harm done there, draws barrier 1 and the only query will be the firmer track today. I think the $11 is a great price. FOUR SISTERS will go well here, and a big watch on SWISS MOMENTS who was truckloaded in betting on her Australian debut but failed on the heavy ground. She can improve markedly here. Happy to risk SPECIAL DIVA today - she had everything in her favour last start.
TIP: Invictum Domina / Journeygirl EW
Race 5
Wide open race. ALL DAY EVERY DAY clung on to win over this distance last start on a heavy track, and goes up 2.5kg in weight as a result. That's the main concern for me here, but he will go forward and he'll also be well suited by the wet track. He can win but I see him more of a strong place chance today rather than a strong winning chance. SKULDUGGERY is ready to win after two runs back from a spell. He was very good first up and then bumped into a very good horse in Sovereign Nation last start. He's gone well at this track, distance and third up previously so he should be in the finish today. Does get a long way back though. BUT IT'S TRUE is one I backed at big odds last start when having his first run for Weir. It was a reasonable performance in a very strong race, so he's better suited back to midweek company here. Blinkers go back on and soft ground a big plus. Draws to get a great run in the race and keen to back him again here.CARRAIG AONAIR, TIME FOR DANCING, STAR PATRIOT, TRUE KISSES and POSITIVELY HIGH all chances.
TIP: But It's True
Race 6
One of the more exciting horses on the program here and also one of the better bets on the card in EURACK. She has been ultra-impressive winning her only two starts to date, the first by 3.5L at Bendigo and the second by 4.25L on the Lakeside course four weeks ago. Both were on wet tracks so if the rain does arrive it is no concern, and she also won from a wide barrier last start so barrier 15 here isn't so much of an issue. It will be surprising to see her get beat here and I don't think the $2.25 will hold up. TOY BOY resumes from a spell here after a debut campaign which saw him run 2nd to Ken's Dream. That's obviously very good form for a midweek BM70. KING'S AUTHORITY won his only start down the straight at Flemington and resumes here after having a bone chip removed. Draws a good gate and can go well, while WIND FORCE looks a big price, particularly to place. His form prior to last start was very good, including a close-up 3rd finish to Leodoro and Portman, and last start he just had no hope after sitting three-wide without cover into a very strong wind. There's $3.80 available for the place and happy to have something on at that price.
TIP: Eurack / Wind Force EW
Race 7
BRAHMOS is another promising horse that I'm keen to back here. This horse did something very rare when winning in BM64 grade in midweek city grade on debut. The fact that Williams was riding a horse on debut in that grade for John Sadler was a strong hint, and the fact he sticks with him here after that win is another good sign. The most encouraging part of his win was the final 100m where he really hit his straps and pulled away on the line, indicating the extra 100m here will really suit. Draws well and this isn't a deep field so he can go on with it. My only concern would be if he got too far back on a track with the rail out 14m. SECRET PROPHET, SUNDAY PRAY and JACQUIS JOY others to include.
TIP: Brahmos (Best Bet)
Race 8
Tough race to finish here with at least four or five genuine winning chances, and therefore $6 the field. With the track expected to be in the Soft range, I'm happy to risk ELECTRIC FUSION who needs it firm. LONDON FOG has the big weight and a wide gate but he's ready to win now at his third run back from a spell. His third up record is very good with three top 2 finishes from four starts. He's also finished in the top two on five occasions from six starts on soft ground. GOODWILL is the big query runner here first up for Team Williams with Ben Melham on board. Generally if Melham is riding they are pretty forward. His first up run last prep was terrible but he settled last on that occasion before settling 2nd at his next run and winning. Look for an announcement on what tactics will be employed - if they announce their intention to go forward I suspect he will be in good enough condition to win. ANDREA MANTEGNA won first up at Geelong before being caught wide last start at Flemington in a strong form race. He can bounce back here for Weir, while PABLO'S EXPRESS is chasing three on the bounce. Keen to have something on London Fog, and I'll also be backing Goodwill in the hope that they go forward.
TIP: London Fog / Goodwill EW
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