Sandown Lakeside Racing Tips for Wednesday, January 3rd

Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Sandown on Wednesday, January 3^rd.

We have an eight-race card on the Lakeside course today, which is a slightly tighter circuit than the Hillside course. The track is rated a Good 4 and will likely stay that way with a tiny bit of rain predicted in the morning. The rail is in the True position and the track should play fairly.

We have betting tips and comments for every race below.

SANDOWN RACING TIPS

Best Bet: Race 6 Above Authority

Best Value: Race 7 Guangzhou

Race 1

Not a betting race to kick off proceedings. I’ve got the favourite EL PHOENIX on top, but I wouldn’t be jumping into $1.80 at all. He debuted with a good performance over 1300m on the Hillside course, finishing 2^nd behind the heavily-backed Another Flag. He settled midfield from barrier 1 and weaved his way along the rail to eventually be beaten 1.75L. He’ll surely improve with that experience under his belt and Mark Zahra retains the ride, so from another good draw he’ll likely settle in a very similar position. The reason he’s not a betting proposition is because we don’t quite know how good the Smerdon and Waller runners are. If they were from inferior stables you could probably be more confident backing the Hayes horse, but a Smerdon horse on debut always needs to be kept safe (especially with Craig Williams booked for the ride) and a Waller horse resuming is much the same. KAECILIUS is the one on debut for Smerdon, with two trials under his belt leading into today, and MONTEVIDEO is Waller’s charge, resuming from a spell after running a respectable 3^rd on debut at Bendigo back in September. El Phoenix on top, but at $1.80 it might be best to just watch unless he gets out to even money or better.

TIP: El Phoenix

Race 2

Three main chances here for mine. SCARECROW goes on top for the Tony McEvoy/Luke Currie combination. This horse has had just the one run – a 2^nd placing at Wodonga back in June. There’s a couple of things that are important to note from that run. Firstly, he started a very well backed $1.40 favourite, and secondly, the horse that beat him was Hulme, who then went on and was reasonably competitive in some very good city races. It’s also interesting to see that he’s had two trials back in Adelaide to start off his prep, but they’ve brought him straight to Melbourne instead of giving him an easy kill back in Adelaide. Those things combined tell me that McEvoy has a fairly decent opinion of the horse and I doubt he’d be sending him over here if he wasn’t a genuine winning chance. Locking in $4.80 and think he starts shorter than that. Coincidentally, the value in the race could actually be the horse he jumps off to ride Scarecrow, that being BAM. Completely forget he went around at Seymour first up, because he didn’t. He jumped awkwardly and Currie then pulled him out of the race. He was favourite on that occasion so the $9 on offer here looks appealing. The fact Currie jumps off him to ride Scarecrow is positive sign for our top selection. The horse I’m very wary of is the favourite CONFLUENCE. He had four starts last preparation for four 2^nd placings, but the form looks very god if you look at the horses that beat him and the races he was contesting. He was beaten by the likes of Octabello, who then went straight to the city and won again before contesting the better 3YO races in Melbourne, and was also beaten by Shamport, who looked super talented before being sold to Hong Kong. He doesn’t have to improve much off those runs to be a massive player here, and there’s every chance that he has improved with his time off for a spell. Prepared to take on the Lindsay Park first starter TYCOON GINA. She won a trial in good style coming into this but the form out of that trial has been horrible. THE PARTY GIRL a chance at near double figure odds.

TIP: Scarecrow / Bam EW

Race 3

Two I’m keen on here at each way odds. The first is ROSEWEDGE for Mick Price and Jake Noonan. She broke her maiden first up this preparation over 1100m at Sale, before stepping up to this grade last start at Moonee Valley. She worked home strongly on that occasion to finish 3^rd behind Pirapala, who has since gone to Sydney and been very competitive, so that form stacks up nicely for a race like this. I think she’s crying out for the step up to 1500m here, and provided the track is allowing for horses to make ground, I think she’ll be flashing home at $7.50. The second horse I like is ART FORM for Darren Weir and Ethan Brown, who has the ability to go forward or back from the wide barrier. She bolted in at Horsham last start, which was the fourth run of her career. She settled outside the leader before kicking clear to win by 5.5L. This is obviously a big step up in class but once Weir gets them winning in the country, that generally transfers over into city races. She should also appreciate the step up in distance. Happy to have something on at $8. I’m very wary of TAGREEDA, who ran 2^nd first up from a spell at Cranbourne. I’m generally fairly keen to take on Cranbourne form, but she does get a huge jockey change here with Jason Benbow off and Damien Oliver on. Draws to get the run of the race and has to be respected. MISS MAGDA is ready to win third up, and she did win at this track over 1400m last preparation.

TIP: Rosewedge EW / Art Form EW

Race 4

WETAKEMANHATTAN is a gelding we backed on debut at Bendigo and he cruised home to win impressively at big odds for us. Based on that performance, he should be able to measure up in town. The stable is absolutely flying (and the combination with jockey Jordan Childs is hot), so despite the step up from maiden grade to BM64 not being an easy one, I’m keen to stick with him with $6 on offer. We’re also getting $2.38 for the place, so a 1x3 each way bet is a reasonable play here. ATLANTIC EXPRESS always needs his first up run but should be ready to improve second up today so must be included at $13. BOSSY MISS finished 2^nd in the same race as Atlantic Express at Bendigo, but gives him a 5kg weight swing today. RED GATEAU is another that generally needs one run to come good, but he should be much improved for his first up 4^th at Cranbourne and gets a gun run from barrier 6. We will have a good indication of what that form is like from his race at Cranbourne through Tagreeda in Race 3. ROYAL THUNDER broke his maiden at Cranbourne last start but as I said above, it’s a difficult step to make, and I don’t trust Cranbourne form. TENNESSEE BOSS and KAPTIVE HERO capable.

TIP: Wetakemanhattan EW

Race 5

Only two runners I’m interested in here – FILLE DE CHARLIE and OUR CHIQUILLA – and the form behind both stacks up hugely. Both of these horses ran at the Moonee Valley meeting on the 15^th December, but in separate 1200m races. FILLE DE CHARLIE led all the way to win a maiden in impressive style by 2.5L. The time she recorded was 1:10.60 with a last 600m of 35.20 seconds. OUR CHIQUILLA ran in the BM64 won by Pirapala over the same distance, where she didn’t get much luck at all in the straight and probably should have been right in the finish. The time for that race was 1:10.99 with a last 600m of 35.28 seconds. So even though Fille De Charlie was only racing in maiden grade, her time for the same distance on the same night was actually superior to Pirapala’s winning time. Now we’ve seen Pirapala since go to Sydney and go very close to winning, so the form has clearly stacked up from that race, and Our Chiquilla also beat a horse called Simply Splashing two starts ago, and that horse has since won its next two starts. But the form from Fille De Charlie’s race has also stacked up, with the horse she beat (Pamela’s Joy) then going on to win by 3L at Canboune. That makes both tremendous chances in this and I’d be surprised if we saw anything else win the race. In terms of splitting them, it’s very difficult. I’m going to lean towards Fille De Charlie based on running positions. She will jump to the lead from barrier 11, while Our Chiquilla typically settles back in the field. Around the lakeside track, it could be beneficial to be closer to the speed. We’re currently getting $3.20 for Fille De Charlie and $5.50 for Our Chiquilla – and at those prices you could definitely ‘dutch’ bet here (back them both to win equal amounts). I’ll tip Fille De Charlie but either will be a good result. MOUSAI goes in the quaddie.

TIP: Fille De Charlie

Race 6

ABOVE AUTHORITY was my best bet of the day last start and she was just about a good thing beat. She had absolutely no luck at all in the straight at Mornington, running up backsides before flashing late once she got a split. We didn’t really get an accurate read on the form from that race given Raindrops On Roses was three-wide without cover at Flemington on Monday, but I suggest it’s good enough to win this. Damian Lane takes over today and from barrier 6 she should get a gun run. Happy to butter up again today and she once again looks one of the bets of the card at $3.60. MARCHING ON has been impressive in winning its past two starts but draws very wide today and has to carry 60.5kg. CATCH ME LATAR was 3^rd behind Marching On last start and gets a 5kg weight swing here. ROKDA KASBA comes through a good form behind Civil Disobedience, while BROCOLLO also has some reasonable form. I really struggle to see anything in this field troubling the favourite, though.

TIP: Above Authority (Best Bet)

Race 7

Keen on one at double figure odds here and that’s GUANGZHOU at $10. This horse put in a terrific run first up at Bendigo where he finished 2^nd over 1400m. He then went to the Valley last time out but drew wide with a big weight and a 3kg apprentice on and settled a long way back in the field. That all led to what looks a poor performance on paper, finishing 10^th of 14, but the run had some merit. Up to the mile now, third up from a spell (he’s won his only prior third up run) and perfectly drawn, I think he can give this a real shake at the good odds. Looks a nice each way bet in an open race. TAN TAT TRUSTING catches the eye, having its first start for new trainer Tony McEvoy. It showed some promise in its first preparation under the care of Henry Dwyer. First up at 1600m is interesting, and the big weight and wide draw make things tough, but it’s one to include. EVOPEX bolted in to break its maiden at Yarra Valley last start but looks short enough here stepping up sharply in grade. Not without a chance. There’s nothing wrong with the form of TENAPPY LADIES, and the horse has been scratched from multiple races in preference for this, but 61kg will be a real test today. PATRIOT ACT, SINJAREE and GOLD ARTISAN others worth consideration.

TIP: Guangzhou EW (Best Value)

Race 8

Going to take a chance on another two at big odds to close out the day here. The first is WRITTEN IN STONE, who I’ve tipped and backed at his past couple of starts, but he’s been luckless in a couple of those, but was admittedly disappointing last start. I think this is a fair drop in class though, back from Saturday BM70 grade to Wednesday BM64 grade. 60.6kg and barrier 15 certainly don’t make life easy, but we’re getting $11 today and it’d make me ill if he won and I wasn’t on. The other runner of interest is TROJAN STORM, who is another horse having its first start for Tony McEvoy after switching stables from Ellerton and Zahra. This horse has a decent record at this track and distance, and gets a nice draw here. If he’s improved under McEvoy’s tutelage, he could be a sneaky chance at $17. Any McEvoy/Currie runner in Melbourne at those odds is worth including. No knock on BOORADLEY, he should go close, while CALL ME HANDSOME is knocking on the door. COMRADE NED goes in the quaddie.

TIP: Written In Stone EW / Trojan Storm EW

QUADDIE

7, 8, 12                              8, 12

1, 3, 5, 13, 14                   13

1, 4, 8, 10, 13, 15             1, 4, 8, 10                         

2, 9, 13, 15, 17                 2, 9, 13, 15, 17

$100 = 22.22%                 $100 = 250%

Tips are provided for entertainment and information purposes, and do not guarantee profit. Always gamble responsibly.