Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Sandown Hillside on Saturday, December 30th.
We have a nine-race card on the Hillside course, with the track rated a Good 3, but there is rain and thunderstorms predicted. I expect the track to be somewhere around the Good4-Soft5 range.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below.
SANDOWN RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 3 Life On The Wire
Best Value: Race 7 Lamborghini EW
Race 1
Not a great betting race to start off with given there’s a few on debut here, but THREEOOD appeals as a decent each way bet in what seems an open race. We’re getting $9/$2.50 about this Mick Price-trained filly who has had two jumpouts leading into her debut here. She showed good speed in both to settle right up on the speed, and I think she’ll give a good account of herself here. FAKE did a good job last time out behind Ollivander in a similar race at Caulfield. He should run well again but at $3.50 I’m happy to play around him. He’s just a touch short. AL DORAMA has had just the one jumpout leading into this, and it was inconclusive as he was held up in traffic for the majority of it. He did travel nicely to the line, however, and made stylish progress. LOVE LUCILLE showed good speed in her two trials and should be competitive.
TIP: Threeood EW
Race 2
Keen to bet here as I’ve narrowed it down to about three main chances. I’ve got the Weir horse RED CHOUX’S on top, with Ethan Brown aboard who takes off a valuable 2kg. This horse has only missed a place once in nine career starts and drops back from BM70 grade, which he’s contested in his past two starts, to BM64 grade, which he won in three starts ago. Two starts ago he ran 3rd in a race that Adatto finished 2nd in, and Adatto then came out and won his next start by 3L, so the form is reasonable. Last start he settled a long way back and ran on strongly into 2nd, and he’ll have to come from a long way back again here with the wide barrier. I think he’s capable though, and the wet conditions will suit him. Happy to take $4.60, particularly with money back offers for 2nd and 3rd applying for this race. The biggest danger looks to be DOMESTICATED, who has run 2nd at her past two starts, the latest of which was over this track and distance behind Adatto. She’ll go forward from barrier 9 and be there for a long way. Will be saving on her at $4.20. I think the value is LADY SEABRING, who saluted at good odds for us last start at Moonee Valley. That was only a Class 1 and this is a small step up, but the way she finished her race off after being held up was impressive. She was luckless first up, so it seems she’s come back in great form. No concerns with the wet ground, and she draws nicely for the in-form Steph Thornton, who takes 3kg off. $12 appeals.
TIP: Red Choux’s / Lady Seabring EW
Race 3
Keen to bet here. LIFE ON THE WIRE looks the best bet of the day, with MOONLOVER the only danger. I was against Life On The Wire last start, with doubts over the Tasmanian form among other things, but she proved me wrong when bolting in to win easily by 2.75L over this track and distance. Granted, it was a Wednesday race and this is a much stronger Saturday race, but she did it very comfortably and looks more than capable of making the step up here. On top of that, she drops in weight and gets her regular senior rider David Pires on board, who takes over from 3kg apprentice Boris Thornton. $2.65 seems a reasonable price. MOONLOVER comes off a very good effort when 2nd behind Widgee Turf, who looks to be one of the better horses going around in Melbourne at present. There was a huge gap back to the 3rd horse in that race, which generally indicates the 2nd horse goes okay too. She’s had the 28 days to get over the heavy track run, and if she bounces back, she’ll be in this for a long way. SINGLE NOTE should be ready to show something, while ZASORCERESS is a very talented mare that we can follow as she gets further into a prep, but her first up record suggests she may need the run. It could pay to keep her safe, however – first up last prep she should have just about won a similar race to this and she’s the quality mare in the field.
TIP: Life On The Wire
Race 4
The form behind MAWZOONA looks to be stacking up fairly solidly and the Peter and Paul Snowden-trained filly’s past two wins have been impressive. She came from well back in the field when breaking her maiden at Mornington two starts ago before settling up on speed last time out and winning just as softly, so she appears to be tactically versatile, which gives her options from barrier 11. I’m not underestimating her here but I’ll just be having a saver bet on her at $4.60 as I’ve got the Weir-trained TWITCHY FRANK on top. This filly dominated on debut at Swan Hill before taking that form to Moonee Valley when leading all the way last time out. Despite the track playing into her hands (on-pace favoured), I think she beat a handy field and when Weir gets these horses winning, they often go on with it. She’ll go forward once again and the claim for Ethan Brown certainly helps. Expecting her to run a very big race once again at $4.20. The stablemate ZELSIGNORET should be ready to win now, third up from a spell. She is one of just two Dean Yendall rides for the day (both for Weir), and we saw Yendall salute on his only ride for the day last weekend (also for Weir). He takes over from apprentices who have ridden her at her two starts this preparation. If the rain comes it will suit this filly, and at $8 she’s worth having something on. TAN TAT FLAME looks to be the big value in the race for Tony McEvoy, who switches his filly to Melbourne after a string of solid performances in Adelaide. LIGHT ROMANCE will be thereabouts, while PURRHAPS was too bad to be true last start and can bounce back at big odds. Backing Twitchy Frank primarily, saving on Mawzoona, something on Zelsignoret and a penny on Tan Tat Flame at huge odds.
TIP: Twitchy Frank / Zelsignoret EW
Race 5
This is a scary race. I’m going to follow the Belwazi formline here and back both KAKANUI and EL SICARIO, with a slight leaning to the latter. Both faced each other last start, where Kakanui won and El Sicario ran 3rd. It was a big effort by the winner, who is still only two runs into a campaign and has a win over the track and distance to his name. Draws well and should get a nice run behind what looks to be a relatively hot speed, and this looks another fantastic ride for Ethan Brown. El Sicario sat midfield and was wide without cover for the majority of the race and eventually got run down to finish 3rd, but he was beaten less than a length. It was a big effort and he should improve off that run given he is second up here. He’ll need a good ride from apprentice Zac Spain but if he can slot in and find some cover, this horse should be right in the finish. Both are currently at $6 – I’d expect support to come for El Sicario and I’d expect us to get a slightly better price about Kakanui come jump time. SOVEREIGN DUKE was a huge winner first up before a slightly flat run in a good race last start. His second up record suggests he’s always a bit flat at that stage of his prep, but he always bounces back to run well third up, so expect a good showing at his pet distance here. The main concerns for me are the pace in the race, the wide barrier and the jockey booking. DAM READY looks set for a big prep after an outstanding return at Werribee, albeit without much luck. The stable have already said they’ll go back from the barrier, but if the pace is as hot as expected then he may run over the top of them. Outside of the obvious contenders, I could make a genuine case for SNAPPY ESPRIT and HE’S THE SHERRIFF who are both third up at huge odds, while Craig Williams is a notable jockey booking for CASQUE and that shouldn’t be underestimated.
TIP: El Sicario / Kakanui EW
Race 6
I think the market’s got this wrong here and I’m more than happy to back OZI CHOICE here at the $4 on offer. I have some genuine queries about a number of runners here, and I can’t find anything to suggest Ozi Choice can’t back up his dominant last start win. That was his second win in a row after winning in Adelaide two starts ago, and he meets THELBURG at the exact same weights as last start when he beat him by 2L. Granted, it paid to be up on speed at Caulfield, but it should be no disadvantage to be on speed again here. The big unknown in the race is LITE’N IN MY VEINS, who was luckless on his Victorian debut two starts ago when he was well backed. He then started favourite last time out but was a notable drifter in the market and ran accordingly. If he can find what he showed in his trial and his first up run, then he’ll be ultra-competitive here, and there has been a trickle of early money to suggest he is back on track. We’re getting $6 and that’s enough to have something on. BURNING FRONT is obviously the class runner in the race and after the claim he actually gets in quite well at the weights. He’s not won from five starts at this track but I’m sure he’ll be competitive. GOT THE GOSS had the measure of PROUD WOLF two races in a row earlier this prep, but has struggled over 1400m in the past. THE CHAIRMAN has never won in four first up attempts. THELBURG gets his chance but may struggle if it rains? Pretty happy to back Ozi Choice and Lite’n In My Veins with a saver on Thelburg here.
TIP: Ozi Choice / Lite’n In My Veins EW
Race 7
Narrowed this down to three main hopes. GUIZOT goes on top, with the only minor negative being the 60kg he has to lump today, but he drops in grade on what he’s been racing in recently, and given he’s nearly been winning those, he should once again go very close despite the big weight. He’s got a good record at the track, a good record at the distance, and if it rains, his chances become even better. You only have to go back three starts ago to see him winning comfortably in this grade, which was also over this distance on wet ground. $5 is a backable price. I think the clear value in the race is LAMBORGHINI, and if it weren’t for his poor second up record I’d be declaring him an each way moral. With that said, this is really his first proper preparation under Patrick Payne’s care in Australia, as he came over from New Zealand midway through last prep. He was desperately unlucky firs tup at the Valley when settling back in the field and only seeing daylight at the 100m mark. He had plenty to give on that occasion and should have gone close. Ethan Brown retains the ride, he draws well, drops 4kg and looks a live chance. As I mentioned, he’s only placed twice from five starts when second up, so that’s the little query, but at $12 it’s definitely worth a throw at the stumps. WHAT A SHOCK improved significantly second up and looks ready to peak third up. He’s undefeated from two prior starts when third up so at $7 he has to be included as a saver bet at the very least. LIGHT ‘N’ FIRE is the interesting runner in the race. Won well at Bendigo two starts ago before going to Adelaide last start and running 3rd. Tahlia Hope is a very interesting jockey booking and the horse gets in with just 52kg so should be thereabouts. Very happy to take on ANCIENT HISTORY who was my best bet of the day last time out at Bendigo and had absolutely every chance but couldn’t get the job done. James Cummings is struggling for winners in Melbourne. No knock TENAPPY LADIES.
TIP: Guizot / Lamboghini EW
Race 8
Another scary race and I’ve had to make some big decisions re: horses to leave out of the quaddie! I might just keep it simple here and back just one horse each way, and that horse is FICA GAL. We backed her first up and she delivered the money for us at a decent price. She won a trial this prep which was the fastest of the day at Cranbourne, and the 2nd horse in that trial then came out and won first up as well. She backed up that trial win with a win first up in BM64 grade at Mornington, and she’s never finished outside the top two from three starts when second up from a spell. The two little queries for me is barrier 1, and the fact she failed at her only start at this track and distance. But this is a wide open race and the $21/$5.50 we’re getting is very appealing. If she’s a chance then DIVERTENTE must be a chance too. She ran 2nd to Fica Gal last start and gets a 2kg weight swing today. CLUB TROPICANA won two in a row before failing last start but she was vetted at the barrier, so I’m prepared to forgive her for that. She can bounce back. FRAULEIN RUSTIE, MISS VESPER and FOR A SONG are all others that I’ve included in the quaddie. I could make a case for LE RENARDE second up, but I’ve taken on both GWENNETH and IF NOT NOW WHEN.
TIP: Fica Gal EW
Race 9
Decent numbers in this race but there’s several that I can put a pen through for one reason or another. Even so, it’s not a confident end to the day. CHIPPENHAM goes on top but it somewhat goes against what I like to see when assessing form. He’s only placed once from four starts at the distance and has only placed once from three starts when third up, but his last start was enough to convince me that his hoof is on the till and he’s nearing a win. He only went down by a nose last start and that was over 1450m, so the 1400m here really shouldn’t be an issue. He draws well and drops 3kg from last start with Tahlia Hope’s claim, so he doesn’t have to lump the 60kg. At $6.50 he’s a good enough price. I think BON ROCKET is hugely over the odds and really shouldn’t be more than double the price of SOHOOL. Both come out of the same race last start behind Sandhurst Delight over 1300m at this track; Bon Rocket finished a length ahead of Sohool and both carry the same weight today. SOHOOL looks ready to win now but has never placed from three starts when third up. Regardless, there shouldn’t be such a big discrepancy between the two – Sohool is $6.50 while Bon Rocket is $15. The key for Bon Rocket will be the ground remaining Good and not getting too wet – if it gets to a Soft 5 he may well justify the long quote. Chris Waller’s THE AVENGER has to be included but may get a long way back from barrier 14. CORAM is ready to do something.
TIP: Chippenham / Bon Rocket EW
QUADDIE
1, 3, 7, 11
1, 7, 10, 13, 14
3, 6, 8, 9, 13, 15
5, 8, 9, 12, 17
$100 = 16.66%
Tips are provided for entertainment and information purposes, and do not guarantee profit. Always gamble responsibly.
