Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Sandown Hillside on Saturday, December 2nd.
We have a nine-race card on the Hillside course, with the track sure to be in the Soft or Heavy range (if it goes ahead) due to the large amount of rain predicted in Melbourne.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below. Make sure you also tune in to Epside 12 of the Before You Bet Podcast, where we take a look at Group 1 Winterbottom Stakes Day at Ascot this weekend. You can listen below!
SANDOWN RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 2 Holy Freeze
Best Value: Race 6 Chiavari
Race 1
Not much to write about here with eight of the nine two-year-olds on debut here. The Tony McEvoy dominate the market and from what we’ve seen at the trials it appears LOGAN RIVER is the better of the two. He won his 800m trial in 46.89secs while his stablemate SANCTIMONIOUS ran 47.19 when winning the very next trial. I have a query with the jockey bookings here, however. Andrew Mallyon rode a winner for Tony McEvoy during the Melbourne spring so with Luke Currie on the sidelines, it wouldn’t surprise me if Mallyon’s horse was actually the stable elect. He rode Sanctimonious in the trial and keeps the ride on him for raceday, while Jye McNeil takes the ride on Logan River. At the prices I’d be more inclined to back Sanctimonious here with $5 available.
TIP: Sanctimonious
Race 2
Keen on HOLY FREEZE here, who was a debut winner on heavy ground at Hamilton before a luckless 3rd placing behind ECHO JET last time out. He was first up from a 47-day break on that occasion so should improve with the run under his belt, and he’s already proven he’ll handle the wet ground which is a big tick. Gets a 2.5kg weight swing on the winner so I’m happy to take the $4 on offer. POET’S CORNER has won two of its three starts this preparation, with his only loss being an unlucky run behind Tamasa, which has turned out to be a good form line. MEMORY BANK gets the valuable 3kg claim for Fred Kersley and will push forward from barrier 10. Resumed with a sound enough win at Cranbourne and can go close here. FLASH CASH gets the blinkers fitted for the first time here but is a query on the wet track, while KASI FARASI ould be the value in the race at $8 after a debut win on a Soft 7 track at Pakenham. REGINA DEL NILO the blowout. Open race but I’m keen on Holy Freeze; behind him it’s hard to split a number of them.
TIP: Holy Freeze
Race 3
I wouldn’t want to dive in at the $2.10 but MRS GARDENIA really does look to have the race at her mercy here after a terrific run behind Long Time Ago at Sandown last start in Group 3 company, which followed up a win in the Rosebowl at Geelong. She’s run well on soft ground previously and her breeding suggests she is an absolute swimmer, being the product of the Irish-bred Rip Van Winkle and a New Zealand mare. The 3kg claim for Ethan Brown means she gets in well at the weights and she looks awfully hard to beat. The only query I have is these Weir horses that can turn their form around completely, both positively and negatively. TOFFEE NOSE is a winner on soft ground over 2000m and gets the blinkers on for the first time second up here. HEAVENLY DESCENT performed well on heavy ground two starts ago, while there’s no real knock on LA FLOURETTE.
TIP: Mrs Gardenia
Race 4
I can’t be taking $2.25 about VINLAND here despite his good form and the strength of the form line out of his last start. I’m instead keen to have a good each way bet on impressive maiden winner ATONE, even though I don’t necessarily like backing runners from this stable with the ongoing inquiry going on. I thought this colt did it very easily at Mornington and could easily make the step up in grade to a race like this, so with $8 available I’ll be backing him. I’ll also be on CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE at the same price, after breaking through at Bendigo last start. Weir now brings him to town, and we know my rule with these types of horses that Weir brings to town after running in the country. He stays at the mile here and I don’t think the ground will be an issue for him. Weir’s other runner STORM HARBOUR has failed in both starts on soft ground but I’m not convinced that was purely due to the ground so I’d be inclined to forgive him for those. COLUMBIA the blowout with two wins from three starts on soft ground – he looks a wet tracker.
TIP: Atone EW / Civil Disobedience EW
Race 5
A few worth mentioning here. I’m very happy to take on ATLANTIC EXPRESS at the price, despite reports that the horse is flying at home. He’s never placed from four starts when first up and has only placed once from three starts on wet ground. I’ll also be taking on TELL THE TRUTH who is currently favourite, despite failing at both starts on soft ground. The jockey/stable combination is not one you’d look for in a Saturday city race and he can win without me. I think IZENASHARK is a good each way bet at $12. The horse has had two starts this prep for a win and a 2nd (behind talented Moonlover), has won on both soft and heavy ground, gets a 3kg claim and has a terrific third up record with three top-two finishes from as many starts. I’ll also be on URBAN ROYAL who won on soft ground first up from a spell, and the first two across the line cleared out by more than 5L to the third horse. Exceed And Excel’s don’t typically love the wet but he’s bred out of a Zabeel mare so this could be an exception. I’m terrified of Weir’s SILENT GENERAL who is another of his horses coming to the city on the back of a win in the country. His win last start was absolutely dominant after sitting wide, and I won’t be losing on him. RIVER GODDESS is one I’d include first up. She has a poor first up record but could be a wet tracker based on her record, and will get conditions to suit. KING KOHEI is the blowout here – bred to absolutely love the rain and at $34 he’s a must include with D Dunn on board.
TIP: Urban Royal / Izenashark EW
Race 6
A couple I’m keen on here despite not loving these 1000m races. SPRIGHTLY LASS looks highly talented with three wins from as many starts to open her career. She won on soft ground on debut and is bred by Snitzel so the track isn’t so much of a concern. She should go straight to the front and be hard to run down. I think CHIAVARI is a good each way bet at double figure odds. This horse brings some very solid form to the race here, with a 2nd placing behind Snitty Kitty two starts ago followed up with a sound run behind Cool Passion and Pedrena last start in a much better race. Pedrena has franked the form since, and Chiavari has also had eight starts on wet round for two wins and five 2nd placings. Add to that her good record at the distance and her good record at this track and distance, and it all suggests she can run a good race here. Rhys McLeod and barrier 2 only little negatives. GWENNETH is in good form and comes back from a run in Sydney. Has a terrific record at the distance and she’s right in this. I’d be keen on ESSENCE OF TERROR if the track wasn’t wet but she just doesn’t go on wet ground. MISS WONDERLAND is very talented but she’ll need to be at her best to win this first up.
TIP: Sprightly Lass / Chiavari EW
Race 7
JUNGLE EDGE could be a complete and utter moral here given his ability on wet ground but he’s had a very odd prep. His last four starts have been over 1000m, 1200m, 1600 and then 1300m, and now back to 1000m. There’s no doubt he’ll go straight to the front and be very hard to run down, but I’ll back him as a saver and back GUN CASE for a better result. Gun Case has a phenomenal record over the distance and also races particularly well over the 1000m here at Sandown. He’s won six from 11 on soft ground and has also won on heavy, so he’s just as suited on wet ground. I’d rather be on Ethan Brown on Gun Case than Georgina Cartwight on Jungle Edge, so we’ll take the $4.0 for Gun Case and get our money back if Jungle Edge wins. I’d be surprised if the winner came outside of those two.
TIP: Gun Case
Race 8
LONG TIME AGO was a huge result for us when she won first up at $19, and she’s got the ability to go on with it here. The Waterhouse/Bott stable in Melbourne are flying, but I’ll just be backing her as a saver today. NIGHT’S WATCH is very short but he drops from 59.5kg to 52.5kg, goes well on wet ground and produced a huge performance last start to run 2nd after making a very long looping run. The wide barrier may end up being a blessing at this stage of the day, and if he’s close enough he should be going very close here. WAR LEGEND looks a good each way bet at double figure odds, especially if the track is heavy. AL HARAM is on debut in Australia for the Lindsay Park team and stays on notice, even though his best will come over further. GUIZO can be included, while JOLIE’S CAFÉ could be the blowout.
TIP: Night’s Watch / War Legend EW
Race 9
Two I’ll be backing in a very, very open race to finish the card. DATA POINT is a perennial punters’ nightmare but he looks very well suited first up today. His first up record is very good with two wins and two 2nds from four starts, and he’s had six starts on wet ground for two wins and three 2nds. He’s well drawn and well weighted and $5 is actually a very reasonable price. LORD BARRINGTON is the value in the race at $13, especially if the track is heavy. He’s got a great record on heavy ground and brings some decent form lines to the race. The wide barrier could be a blessing and if the rain comes hard then he’ll be one to look out for. Plenty of chances here and a wide last leg of the quaddie!
TIP: Data Point / Lord Barrington EW
QUADDIE
2, 6, 8, 9
1, 2
3, 5, 8, 9, 12, 14
1, 7, 8, 9, 13, 18
$100 = 34.72%
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
