Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Rosehill on Saturday, July 14th.
We have nine races on a Good 4 track with the rail out 6m, with the Listed Winter Stakes headlining the card.
We’ve got betting tips and comments for every race below. Be sure to also listen to Episode 42 of the Before You Bet Podcast!
ROSEHILL RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 7 #3 Dreamforce
Best Value: Race 9 #6 Cosmic Engine
RACE 1
Really tricky race to start things off. (1) The Fire Trap has won two of his first three career starts in Queensland and now comes down to Sydney with Hugh Bowman a notable jockey booking. Drawn well in barrier 3 and this sort of off-season race is very winnable for a horse like him. Matthew Dunn certainly knows which horses to bring down to Sydney. (2) Master Ash is the horse I’ve got on top from the Gai Waterhouse/Adrian Bott stable. This horse trialled well before his debut, where he ran 2nd as the short-priced favourite. He atoned for that defeat with a win at his second career start in town at big odds. He’s had 11 weeks off the track and resumes over 1400m here. Tim Clark is booked for the ride and the combination of Waterhouse/Bott/Clark has enjoyed a 25% strike rate this season. (3) Laburnum draws well here but was well beaten first up at Canterbury, despite running 2nd. Her form from his debut prep wasn’t exactly strong either so it’s hard to put her on top here. (4) Tactical Formation is fresh from a let-up, which is often when Gerald Ryan runners go best. Waller’s best hope looks to be (6) Nobu who didn’t have the clearest run on debut and had trialled reasonably before that.
RACE 2
Highway Handicap here. (1) Highway Sixtysix just clung on to win first up in a Highway Handicap over 1200m at Randwick first up. He was entitled to win given he had a class edge on the field, but it was still a good effort to win first up from 34 weeks off the track. Up in weight here but he once again looks to have a class edge on plenty of runners here and he should be much better off fitness-wise for that first up run. (2) Rekindled Force is probably the only runner that could match it class-wise with the topweight. He returns from a spell here and has had a tie back operation in his time off. He won his first two starts on the provincials before starting a well-backed commodity in a race at Rosehill last time we saw him. He failed badly on that occasion but the form has proved extremely strong out of that race (the winner won a G1 during the Autumn). Money has already come to suggest he’s tuned up to win this. (4) Petra Jewel has made a promising start to her career with a couple of wins at Tamworth but 3kg apprentice Mikayla Weir is booked to ride from a tricky barrier here.
(1) Highway Sixtysix
$3.70
RACE 3
Looking at the three Waller runners as the runners with most interest here. (1) Asterius won well at kembla first up and brought that form to metro grade last start with a comfortable victory over 1500m. Up in weight now to 60kg and Brenton Avdulla is replaced by apprentice Sam Weatherley for some weight relief, so there’s a couple of hurdles he has to overcome. Up to 1800m for the first time but still looks a good winning chance here. He’s not finished outside the top two in five starts yet. (2) Jolly Honour gets Hugh Bowman on from barrier 1 here after winning over 2000m at Randwick on the Heavy ground last time out. Has had five weeks off since then and drops back to the 1800m here, which is some concern, but he’s still a big chance here and the money has come early for him. (9) The Macallan makes his Australian debut here, having been transferred to Chris Waller from New Zealand. He won over 1400m two starts ago before finishing off nicely over 1600m last start. Drawn awkwardly in barrier 10 but James McDonald is booked to ride and I’d keep a close eye on the market. He’s currently $10 but he’s likely to start shorter.
Value: (2) Jolly Honour $6.00 Ladbrokes
RACE 4
Sticking with the unbeaten (6) Alassio here. She faces her hardest test to date stepping up to Saturday grade for the first time, but she’s won three from three so far and gets every chance once again from barrier 1. (2) In Times Of War broke through for just her third career win last start in Queensland. She’s been competitive in this sort of class in Sydney before and perhaps now she’s won again, she might be worth keeping very safe. It’s notable that Bowman takes the ride and Waller opts not to use an apprentice with the 59.5kg weight. (10) Girl in A Million proved her class in her first preparation, which included a city win at Doomben. She resumed with a dominant win at Tamworth and now comes to the city at her second run this campaign. Carries just 51.5kg and shouldn’t be dismissed. (4) Once More A Lady was comprehensively beaten first up but gets back onto a dry track today and Brenton Avdulla takes the ride, so double figure odds appeals for her. (1) Upscale gets blinkers first time second up here.
RACE 5
Competitive race here. (1) Bratislava bolted in first up last preparation at Canterbury, winning by 2L with 61.5kg on her back. This is a harder race than that was but at least she’s proven she can carry the weight when she’s fresh from a break. She should be right in this at $6. (3) Level Eight is first up too, with Hugh Bowman booked for the ride for the Snowden stable. This horse has never finished outside the top two from five starts when first up. He’s trialled twice, in typical Snowden fashion, and although he’s drawn wide in barrier 12, I expect him to run a good race here at $14. (5) Smartedge is the other Snowden horse in the race, to be ridden by Tim Clark. He’s had three runs back from a spell and comes out of a good form race last start. Drawn well and expected to be very copmpetitive. (4) Star Of Monsoon is first up with James McDonald aboard for Gerald Ryan. He’ll be tuned up to win.
Value: (3) Level Eight $14 Sportsbet
RACE 6
One of these Sydney staying events with a handful of Waller runners and they’re nearly always worth sitting out of. (2) Chaterlard put in a stinker last start but will appreciate stepping up in trip once again and will appreciate getting back on to a firm surface. (3) Mutarakem steps up in grade after blitzing his rivals by 6L on the Heavy ground at Canterbury last start. Bowman unsurprisingly sticks with him and he’s once again drawn well in barrier 5. (4) Al Galayel won well on his Australian debut and ran 3rd last start over the mile at Caulfield. The form out of that race is unconvincing but Mantastic will be going around as the short-priced favourite at Caulfield today and may give some sort of a guide. Al Galayel steps up to 2000m third up now and goes from Liam Riordan to Blake Shinn so he has some psoitives but I’ll be betting around him here. (8) Curragh ran well last start over 1800m at Randwick but probably appreciated the wet ground and was still beaten 2.8L. He’s drawn barrier 16 here and looks short enough at $6.50. (9) Raqeeq was incredibly well backed last start when he was first up over 1500m. He’s never placed first up before and that remained the case but he did run home strongly to finish 5th and now steps straight up to 2000m. Avdulla takes over from apprentice Sam Weatherley. He looks much better suited today and a big chance at $7. (11) Swet Victory bounced back to form with a good run last start and must be considered, while (16) Jolly Honour is a chance if they gain a run here and scratch from the earlier race. Betting around the two favourites here (Al Galayel and Curragh) with Raqeeq the main bet for me.
RACE 7
The Listed Winter Stakes here and I think (3) Dreamforce is one of the best bets of the day here. He’s drawn horribly in barrier 16 here but his two runs back from a spell this preparation have been enormous. Third up at 1400m and back onto a firmer track will really suit him and he looks the obvious choice on paper. Happy to take the $4 on offer. (1) Hiflyer is Group 1 placed over a mile in New Zealand and comes across for this. (9) Invinzabeel is another one that’s drawn poorly but is third up and remains at his pet track and distance. (4) Testashadow could be a blwoout chance after a sound first up effort. The stable is flying and he won second up last preparation over a similar distance at big odds. (13) Special Missile looks way under the odds for mine.
RACE 8
I’ve been against (13) Albumin all preparation but he gets his chance to make it a hattrick of wins here. His record at 1200m is terrible but he’s a different horse this preparation and draws very well to give him his chance to see out the 1200m here. Four weeks between runs once again to keep him fresh, he looks the one to beat. (11) Drachenfels won three of his five starts last preparation and went through the grades nicely. Returns from a lengthy spell here but has three trials under the belt in readiness for this. Drawn well in barrier 4 for Rachel King and is a decent price at $6.50. (8) Easy Eddie bounced back with a good win last start over 1100m at this track. Has a couple of wins over the 1200m so that shouldn’t be an issue and he should lead this field from barrier 3. Definite chance once again at $7. (4) Lofty’s Menu a value chance.
Value: (11) Drachenfels $6.00 Crownbet
RACE 9
Big field and a few chances to finish the day here but I’m pretty keen to bet. (2) High Mist has found winning form but his last two wins have come on wet ground and his record on Good ground is just one win from 13 starts. I think that makes him vulnerable here and he’s well and truly short enough at $5. (6) Cosmic Engine looks a decent chance at $8 after a luckless run first up when caught wide without cover the entire race. Drops in weight, draws barrier 1 and has a decent second up record so I’m keen to have something on today. (14) Nicci’s Gold won well two starts ago and backed that up with another good run last start in what may have been the inferior part of the track. Drops back to 53.5kg and although Colllett jumps off, she can go well again. (15) Sparky Lad seems to finally be finding form this prep after a 2nd placing behind Asterius last start. Avdulla takes the ride and he’s been met with market support in early betting so keep him safe. The horse I won’t be dismissing is (10) Sir Barb. Collett jumps off Nicci’s Gold to ride him for his partner Claire Cunningham and although he’s got an ordinary first up record, I’d include him in everything at big odds.
