Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Rosehill on Saturday, February 2nd.
We’ve got nine races on a Soft 7 track with the rail in the 3m position. The Group 2 Expressway Stakes (Race 6) is the feature race of the day
Check out our betting tips for every race on the card below!
Best Bet: Race 7 Girl Tuesday
Best Value Bet: Race 5 Looks Like Elvis / Excelsior
McLaren looks the obvious choice on paper here for Team Snowden after posting three trial wins, the latest of which was by 6.8L. With even luck he looks the winner. Speaking of luck, Exceed The Stars had none of it on debut in the Breeder’s Plate when posted four-wide without cover throughout. He started $4.40 favourite in that race so he’s obviously got a good degree of talent. He resumes with blinkers on and concussion plates off, which are two big positives.
Amercement resumes for her second preparation today, having run 4th in her one career start back in September last year. She didn’t get much luck on that occasion and was put straight out after that race. She’s trialled well leading into her first up run today and the wet track shouldn’t be an issue given she’s bred by Lonhro out of a Commands mare. Chris Waller’s pair look the hardest to beat. Lucicello ran 2nd in both trials leading into her debut today and I thought the latest one was particularly stylish. James McDonald booked for the ride is a pretty good indicator. Rotator wasn’t really fully tested in her trial and was only 1.5L off the winner so I’d monitor the market and keep her safe.
TIP: Amercement $5.00 Sportsbet / Save Lucicello $4.40
Happy to be with the favourite Nicconita for one final time today, but there also looks a few good chances outside her at long odds. She raced in two metro races to kick off her campaign and then tackled a Highway last start, where she ran 3rd behind A Snip Of Cyndy. She gets a 2.5kg weight swing in her favour today and Blake Shinn takes the ride. He returned with a double last week and will be very hungry for winners. Goes well on wet ground and with even luck from barrier 13 should be hard to hold out. Haames, Blue Collar Boy, Roy’s Command and Saarim are all worth throwing in the numbers at double figure prices. A Snip Of Cyndy obviously a chance after a good last-start Highway win.
Going to stick with Ljungberg today after his defeat as the $1.65 favourite last start. He had no luck on that occasion, posted three-wide without cover and it’s often worth following horses like him at their next start. The market obviously had him as the best horse last time and he had a legitimate excuse as to why he didn’t perform to expectations. Forgiving that and sticking solid. Toulouse could be the value at $14. He’s trialled poorly leading into this but he resumes with blinkers on for the first time and he did kick off his last campaign with back-to-back wins over this track and distance on wet ground. Vegadaze beat Ljungberg last start and is now two from two so has obvious claims, while Adana has more talent than his record suggests.
Two I’m interested in at long odds here. Looks Like Elvis makes his way down to Sydney from Brisbane after placing at Eagle Farm last start. Blake Shinn is a notable jockey booking and he’s never finished outside the top two from three starts on wet ground. Happy to have something small on at $16. Excelsior resumes from a spell with Brett Prebble in the saddle and he’s another I’d have something small on at $15. He went very close first up last preparation over this distance at Randwick on soft ground. Drawn well, should be on speed and has trialled well leading into this. Poetic Charmer probably the hardest to beat.
Small field but packed full of quality. Trapeze Artist resumes from a spell and I’m slightly torn over him. Typically, Gerald Ryan would have him set to win first up but we saw last preparation he was a big drifter in the market first up and this time around they’ve planned out five races for his campaign, so we’ll only know come race time whether he’s ready to go judging by the market. If he’s solid in the market, I’ll be backing him. At this trip he’s probably got the wood over the others. Alizee returned with a dominant win first up but if there was a negative to be found, it was that she got the perfect run in the race. Still, she did it comfortably and did it with 60.5kg. No real knock on her. Le Romain always runs well and did win first up last preparation. He’s sure to be right in this once again.
Hard to oppose the undefeated Girl Tuesday here, who returns from a spell having won all four of her career starts to date. She’s drawn a touch awkwardly and meets some horses in form but she looks a classy mare on the up and deserves favouritism here. Stablemate Seaway returns as a gelding here. He’s always shown a bit of talent and does have a great record at the distance so keep him safe and watch the market. Hallelujah Boy also returns as a gelding and he’s sure to appreciate the soft ground given two of his three career wins have come on heavy ground. Throw him into the numbers for a bit of value. Another sure to appreciate the ground is High Mist who has won two from four when second up and has four wins on wet tracks. Smartedge not hopeless.
Only three that really interest me here. Asterius is sure to like the soft ground here. He’s won two from two on soft tracks and has been running well enough on the firmer decks to suggest he can win this on his preferred surface today. James McDonald takes the ride from the good draw and the horse also gets the blinkers off today. Ran 2nd at this track and distance last start and should be thereabouts again. Nahuel has won two on the bounce and steps up to Saturday grade today. Everything he’s been doing suggests he can be very competitive so I’d probably be saving on him at $3.70. Botti could be the value at $11. He placed behind Ljungberg first up and then had no luck last start. Third up now and carries just 52kg. Has won on heavy ground previously so he’s not hopeless.
Wouldn’t shock anyone to see the two Waller horses fight this out. Paret returned with a 3rd placing behind Bon Amis first up over 1100m, which isn’t his right distance at all. Much better suited up in trip today but probably still looking for 1400m+. Does have a win on soft ground to his name so should be finishing off hard today. Performer is one of the biggest spruik horses in the country and has been ever since his first trial. It’s been a while since he’s delivered anything of note but once again he’s been well-backed here. One day he’ll put it all together and blow them away. Today could be that day but he’s had plenty of chances.
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