Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Royal Randwick on Saturday, December 30th.
We have a nine-race card with the track rated a Good 4, and there is some chance of a shower of two throughout the day, so we’ll have to keep an eye on track conditions.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below.
RANDWICK RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 5 Brave Song
Best Value: Race 8 Monasterio EW
Race 1
Nightmare race to begin with here. Going to stick with the Snowden pair as I think they’ll be starting to roll out their best two-year-olds (like most stables) this time of year. I’ll go with LEGISLATION on top after a sound debut win and good recent trial, but it would be no surprise to me to see the stablemate MORPHEUS land the spoils at double figure odds. Blake Shinn taking the ride on the latter is probably a good sign for its chances and it’s a proven Snowden method to give a horse two trials (a win at its most recent) leading into its debut. I think the $11 on offer is a good price and I’m expecting a big run. Outside of those SKYRAY must be rated a big chance in this after running 2nd to boom two-year-old Jonker. The value in the race could be QUACKERJACK at $19 after a good first up win, while MARMARIS, SECRET LADY and FEARLESS GIRL all have obvious claims. Not a great race to bet into to start the day!
TIP: Legislation / Morpheus EW
Race 2
Small field and it looks a nice race for SASSO CORBARO who bolted in by more than 3L firs tup at Hawkesbury. This is harder but she did that in dominant style and should be able to carry that form into city grade today. Ladbrokes are offering $3 for her as part of their ‘lay of the week’ deal, which looks a great bet given she’s $1.95 everywhere else.
TIP: Sasso Corbaro
Race 3
Another small field and I’ll be taking on NEW UNIVERSE today who looks to be very short. The market has somewhat corrected itself now but he was certainly under the odds at his opening quote of $2.50! DREAMFORCE started $4 behind Sedanzer last start and finished well down the track after racing fiercely in the lead. In the small field here he should lead once again and be very hard to run down. HUNTER JACK ran 2nd to Sedanzer two starts ago and looks ready to win with just 51.5kg on his back third up from a spell. LIAPARI is another that’s ready to show something but may still need one more run before being a legitimate winning chance.
TIP: Dreamforce
Race 4
Nothing really stands out here. LADY CREBILLY goes on top but the big query is the drop back from 1400m to 1100m. She put two wins together in Adelaide before going to Melbourne and motoring home from well back in the field to grab 3rd over the 1400m trip. She’s since had 42 days between runs, so possibly they’ve freshened her up and trained her to sprint for this race. She’ll get a nice run from barrier 1 and should be right in the finish at $4.80. KENNEDY bolted in last start but it was at Kembla and that form rarely translates into city form so I’ll be taking him on at the price. He may well win but he’s too short for mine. PENDELOQUE is the interesting runner, first up from a fairly lengthy spell. It’s the first time we’ve seen her since her two-year-old campaign, and with just 52.5kg on her back she should jump, cross and speed along in front. Tricky little affair.
TIP: Lady Of Crebilly
Race 5
Best bet of the day here with BRAVE SONG and I’m happy to jump in at the short price. There was better prices available yesterday but even $1.80 looks a good price to me. I think this horse is immensely talented and is set for much bigger and better races. He’s showed plenty ever since his debut and his win first up from a spell at Canterbury was seriously impressive. He got shuffled back at about the 600m mark and had to pick himself up, but once he got to the outside he absolutely motored home to win easily in the end. It’s not easy to do that at Canterbury and the bigger Randwick track should definitely suit him even better today. Well drawn in barrier 5, lightly weighted, looks a good thing.
TIP: Brave Song (Best Bet)
Race 6
As mentioned yesterday on the podcast, I think ALL STAND is a pretty safe each way bet here. He was $6 yesterday but even the $5/$1.91 on offer looks to be a good enough price to back him 1x3 each way. He led all the way to win two starts ago at Cessnock, before sitting outside the leader in a similar race last start, only to be nabbed right on the line by the promising Victorem. Drops from 59kg last start to 57kg here, goes forward once again and should be in this race for a very long way. ACQUITTAL is obviously the interesting runner in the race. He’s still a maiden but finds a winnable race and gets in with a light weight. The stable certainly know how to win these Highway races. The value could be REMITTANCE for Rod Northam and Robert Thompson. Robert Thompson rarely comes to the city on a Saturday but when he does his rides generally go very close. He rode this horse to victory first up at Scone in a Class 3 and he should be very competitive in this race at the $8 mark. Having a decent 1x3 bet at All Stand and something small on Remittance.
TIP: All Stand / Remittance EW
Race 7
If MUSIC MAGNATE returns at his best here he just wins, but the query is what shape he’s in first up from a fairly lengthy spell. He’s had the two trials leading into this, winning both, but he’s got 61kg and a wide barrier to contend with. I’ll be keeping a very close eye on betting close to the race, because if he remains firm around his current price he could go close, but if he gets out to around $4 I doubt he’ll be winning this. I’ll be backing both DOTHRAKI and SUPREME EFFORT. Dothraki is second up here after failing first up on heavy ground. He’s won a trial since that race and has a good second up record so I’d expect sharp improvement from him here. SUPREME EFFORT ran well all of last preparation, including a Stakes win on the Sunshine Coast, and has trialled well leading into today. Has a good first up record and I’d expect a big showing here. ECKSTEIN ran 2nd in Group 1 company last time we saw her and drops back to a distance she is undefeated at so she must be considered in this.
TIP: Supreme Effort / Dothraki EW
Race 8
Very keen to bet here. I was originally keen on BASTIA before it was scratched, but now that it is I’m keen to launch into a couple of Waller runners. ZOURKHAN gets promoted to top selection now after running 2nd to Sedanzer first up from a spell as our best value bet of the day. The form behind Sedanzer is obviously very strong and Zourkhan has a good enough second up record to suggest he’ll go very close today. A bit of cut out of the ground will definitely help him. I think the value in the race is MONASTERIO, who returns to Sydney after doing all his recent racing in Brisbane. He won two starts ago before failing last time out as the favourite, but he pulled up lame so if you can forgive him for that performance, his form certainly looks good enough to be a major player at double figure odds. We’ve seen Waller bring these horses back from Brisbane with good effect, with the likes of Carzoff winning as soon as he returned to Sydney. He’ll get back from barrier 10 but looks a good value bet in the race. XEBEC has won two of his four races when third up and looks ready to win after a sound performance last start.
TIP: Zourkhan / Monasterio EW
Race 9
Keen on two to end the day here. SUGAR BELLA goes on top after a hugely impressive display first up from a spell at Canterbury, where she beat Duchess Of Pedrille by nearly three lengths. Duchess Of Pedrille then came out and won her next start, so the form looks good. She looks more than capable of making the step up to Saturday grade here and we’re still getting $4 after scratchings. The value could be O’RACHAEL, particularly if the track remains in the Good range. Her run first up was very good, and she gets a nice weight swing on ANATOLA today. Her record suggests she improves second up and from barrier 1 she should get a nice run just behind the leaders. $7 is a good price. ANATOLA is going very well but the 61kg is cause for concern for me so I’ll be taking her on today. SAVATIANO and GENETEAU others to consider.
TIP: Sugar Bella / O’Rachael EW
QUADDIE
1, 7, 9, 13
1, 2, 5, 8
3, 6, 8, 10, 11
2, 8, 9, 10
$100 = 31.25%
Tips are provided for entertainment and information purposes, and do not guarantee profit. Always gamble responsibly.
