AFL Round 4 concludes with the traditional Easter Monday clash between Hawthorn and Geelong at the MCG. It’s one of the best rivalries in footy and with both clubs expected to be competing at the pointy end of the year, this should be another cracking contest for fans and punters to dive into.
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Hawks vs Cats below. And if you’re keen to back in our tips, consider doing so at Bet365 - one of the biggest and best sportsbooks in the world!
Hawthorn vs Geelong Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 4
Hawks Steadied the Ship
Hawthorn enters this traditional Easter Monday blockbuster at the MCG in good form, having established a solid foundation for their 2026 campaign. After dropping their opening fixture to Greater Western Sydney, the Hawks have bounced back to secure consecutive victories over Essendon and a highly rated Sydney outfit. Sam Mitchell has his side executing a distinct brand of football characterised by high possession numbers and a precision kicking game. They currently rank first in the competition for time in possession, expertly controlling the tempo and suffocating opposition setups. Their midfield has been working efficiently to supply the forward line, ensuring they capitalise on their scoring opportunities.
Cats Also Trending Upwards
Geelong arrives at the home of football looking to further build their momentum following an inconsistent but successful start to the year. The Cats slumped to a disappointing defeat against the Gold Coast in the opening round but have responded with character building wins over Fremantle and Adelaide. Tanner Bruhn has been important after missing all of 2025, while Bailey Smith and Max Holmes continue to put up big numbers in the engine room. Their recent gritty victory over the Crows highlighted their ability to win ugly when necessary, showcasing the structural discipline that makes them so difficult to beat.
Recent H2H History
Recent head to head history reveals a very clear advantage for the Cats in this fierce modern rivalry. Geelong enters this contest riding a five game winning streak against Hawthorn, which includes a memorable victory in the 2025 Preliminary Final at the MCG. The Cats have consistently found a way to outlast the Hawks in these high pressure encounters, using their physical maturity and composure to dictate proceedings late in games. While Hawthorn are executing their game plan well right now, the psychological advantage sits firmly with Geelong following their recent dominance on the big stage.
Hawks or Cats? Here’s Our Best Bet
The markets currently have Hawthorn situated as slight favourites, but this clash looms as a genuine 50-50 proposition. The Hawks are executing their high possession style nicely, but Geelong possesses the defensive structure and tactical discipline to turn this into an absolute arm wrestle. The Cats are masters of absorbing pressure and grinding opponents down, and their recent dominance over Hawthorn makes the handicap line very appealing. Expect a fiercely contested battle befitting the Easter Monday tradition, where the experience of the away side keeps things incredibly tight. Taking Geelong with the +8.5 start is the best play for this matchup.
Geelong +8.5
$1.91 (1.5 Units)
Hawthorn vs Geelong Prop Bet
The weather forecast looks good for Monday and both teams aren’t afraid of engaging in a shootout, so there should be plenty of goals to go around in this one. Chol has strong history in this matchup with the Cats, kicking 2+ goals in 3 of his last 4 games against them, for a total of 9 over that span. I’m a bit surprised to see his odds north of $2 for multiple majors here and am happy to have a play
Mabior Chol 2+ Goals
$2.25
Hawthorn vs Geelong Same Game Multi
Mabior Chol 2+ Goals: For the reasons mentioned above in our best prop bet.
Tom Stewart 20+ Disposals: Looks to be back to his best this season with the new rules leading to faster ball movement and an increase in intercept possession opportunities. He’s had 24, 27, and 24 disposals from 3 games.
Dylan Moore 20+ Disposals: He’s had a cracking start to the season, and his last 2 matches have been particularly impressive (24 & 22 disposals). He also has great history against the Cats, collecting 26+ disposals in 2 of his last 3 games against them.
Same Game Odds: $4.50 at Bet365
Hawthorn vs Geelong Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Monday 6th April
Time: 3:15pm AEDT
Location: MCG, Melbourne
Odds: Hawthorn $1.61 vs Geelong $2.34
Line: -8.5
Points: 184.5
Where to Watch Hawthorn vs Geelong
You can watch the Hawks vs Cats live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
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