Group 1 racing once again in Adelaide this weekend with the South Australian Derby headlining an 8 race card at Morphettville. The track is currently rated a Good 4 and with fine weather predicted I don't expect that to change.
We have betting tips and comments for every race on the card below!
Morphetville Racing Tips - Saturday, May 13th
Race 1
Had this between two horses. ACT OF VALOUR has returned in good order and won well last start over 1300m at this track. Drew wide that day and pushed forward to sit outside the leader so from barrier 14 today I'd expect him to be doing the same. Damian Lane takes over from Chris Parnham and there's not many riding better than Lane at the moment. Won third up last prep and the only knock is he goes up 3.5kg in the weights today. Probably would have also preferred a Soft track but he's still a very good winning chance. However, I'll be with BELUGA BLUE if she gets a run. She gets a 2.5kg weight swing on Act Of Valour and comes into this second up where she's won 2 of her 3 races. Has won 3 from 4 at the distance and has a good record at the track. She is 4th emergency, however, and given there's no scratchings at the moment it's doubtful she'll get a start.
Tip: Belugar Blue / Act Of Valour (if Beluga Blue doesn't gain a start)
Race 2
Like the look of SILVERHAWK here stepping up to 1400m after an eye-catching debut behind Pure Scot. Came wide and was outsprinted early but charged through the line which indicates the step up in distance will really suit here. Oliver takes the ride and from the good barrier he may be able to settle a touch closer. $6 looks a nice price. CASINO FOURTEEN the hardest to beat for me after a good debut performance followed by a good 2nd behind the very talented Merchant Navy. It was 4 lengths back to the 3rd horse which indicates the first two could have been well above average. We know the winner is so this horse brings strong formlines, just needs luck from the gate. Can easily back both here at $6 and $5.50 respectively.
Tip: Silverhawk
Race 3
Two that stand out for me in a massive field and a wide open race. If SAMARA DANCER can bring her best form to this she'll be very hard to beat. The queries are obviously the big weight and the wide gate, but she gets a top jockey on and her record first up, as well as her record at 1100m make her hard to beat against this field. First up last prep she ran 3rd in Group 2 company in Melbourne. The other is IF NOT NOW WHEN who looks the value bet in the race at $9.50. Has taken a few runs to hit her straps this prep but her last start performance was very good behind a pretty smart winner in Snitty Kitty. Henry Dwyer's stable are flying and the formlines out of that race are strong enough to feature here.
Tip: Samara Dancer / If Not Now When EW (Best Value)
Race 4
With the favourite Strategic Demand here who did enough first up to suggest he can turn the tables on Fine Mist here. His second up record (3 wins fro 5 starts) suggests he will improve sharply here and he is undefeated from four starts at the track. he has a 1L margin to turnaround but he was finishing off hard last start and with the senior rider taking over he looks well placed despite the wide draw.
Tip: Strategic Demand
Race 5
Absolute lottery of a race here with any number of winning chances. I do like the odds about LOPE DE CAPIO who blew the start first up in a very strong form race. It was a Group 3 and Viddora the winner came out and ran 2nd in the G1 UBET Classic. He's got terrific second up stats and should get a nice run from the inside gate if he doesn't miss the start. There's about six or seven others that can win this.
Tip: Lope De Capio EW
Race 6
PETITION looks close to the best bet of the day here. She's been super impressive in two starts this prep and the step up to 1600m should only see her improve. She draws wide here but she'll drift back in the field and circle into it as she's done in both wins. She'll get a much firmer track than what she's faced in her past two wins but her form last prep on Good ground was good enough to suggest it won't be an issue. MILWAUKEE probably rates as the hardest to beat given his barrier draw in 5, which should see him roll to the lead and if the track's favouring front runners then he will definitely be met with support. He was awful last start but prepared to forgive due to the wet track. The value could be last start Stakes winner FOX HALL who should roll forward from the wide gate.
Tip: Petition (Best Bet)
Race 7
I think ODEON is clearly the one to beat here after his dominant win in Open company in Melbourne last start but I'm betting around him. I'll be on NETHERFIELD who was luckless last start in the lead up to this race, the group 3 Chairman's Stakes over 2000m. He was well supported last start and enjoyed a good run but was badly held up in the straight and was untested to the line, beaten only 1.2L. Draws wide here so expect him to sit in the back half of the field and be looking for cover in order to launch late. Happy to take $6 about him. The value could be WAGING WAR who has done nothing wrong in his last three starts and won by 3 lengths two starts ago over 2200m so the 2500m should pose a problem. Beat Grand Chancellor last start and that horse beat Odeon two starts ago so the form ties in. That makes Grand Chanellor another at good odds that presents some value, especially with the good draw.
Tip: Netherfield / Waging War EW
Race 8
SATURDAY AFFAIR ticks a few boxes here and will get absolutely every chance, especially with Damian Lane in the saddle, but I just can't tip her. She put in two absolute shockers before turning her form around last start, and she's very exposed having had the 50 starts compared to other less exposed horses that may be on the up. One of those is LIEDER who goes on top here after absolutely bolting in last start. If you ignore his run two starts ago, his form looks pretty good for this. He'll need a good ride from the gate but there's plenty of deadwood in this race. There's two at a bit of value in here too. HOLY JUAN shouldn't be $26. He beat Saturday Affair last start and even though he goes up 4.5kg (which results in a 2.5kg weight swing to Saturday Affair) his form warrants him being a live chance here. EMMOOKI'S DASH ran well first up and typically needs that run to blow out the cobwebs. He's another that is exposed on form but his record at the track, the distance and second up from a spell suggest he could be worth a dollar at$26. The 2kg claim and the good barrier really help him.
Tip: Lieder / Holy Juan EW
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
