Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Australia Day night racing at Moonee Valley on Friday, January 26th.
We have an eight-race card on a Good 4 track with the rail in the True position. Typically, the True rail plays fairly but as has been the case in recent months, it’s always better to be up on speed at the Valley.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below. Make sure you listen to Episode 19 of the Before You Bet Podcast to hear Tim’s thoughts on the best betting races on the card, as well as the Rosehill and Caulfield meetings tomorrow!
MOONEE VALLEY RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 2 Sam’s Image
Best Value: Race 3 Fica Gal
Race 1
Hard to be confident here with four of the five runners having their first race start. I really don’t want to get too involved. NATIVE SOLDIER goes on top after breaking through at Geelong and often race experience counts for a bit extra in these races with unraced runners. He’s from the Weir camp so he’s sure to have come on from that run and will improve once again in city grade here. FANDRAL was scratched from a harder race on Saturday in preference for this race so you’d think he’d be competitive in the small field. No surprise to see him win on debut. ASHRAMA is on debut for the Lindsay Park team and you always have to respect their 2YO debutantes. I thought the jumpout was only fair but the market support suggests she’s got good ability. PHONEME won a jumpout at Flemington and Waller has his Melbourne horses flying so can’t be ruled out.
TIP: Native Soldier
Race 2
SAM’S IMAGE could be one of the best bets of the weekend here. This horse is the only horse to beat the ultra-talented Nature Strip, and that was over this same track and distance last preparation. He resumes from a spell today and has a good fresh record, will jump straight to the lead with Baster on from barrier 2, and they’ll have a very tough task running him down. Happy with $2.10 and I’ll be launching into him here. KING OF THE ARK was a good winner first up from a spell and can run a good race again here, while SUNDAY PRAY and CHARLIE GARCON roughies to include.
TIP: Sam’s Image
Race 3
Two I’m keen on here. BELWAZI bounced back from a poor run two starts ago to canter in at Cranbourne last start, leading all the way to win by 3L. If Steph Thornton can find the lead on him here, he’ll be hard to run down. But the key is finding the lead. From barrier 8, if she doesn’t get the rail, he may struggle to win. I think FICA GAL is the clear value in the race. There’s no $17 available like there was when I recorded the podcast – she’s been backed into $9.50. Her trial before her first up run was the fastest of the day and she took that to her first up run when winning under a big weight at Mornington. She was poor last start, and the pre-race betting suggested she may be flat. The betting today suggests she can bounce back and if she rediscovers her best then she’ll be competitive at each way odds. JOCASTA was given no hope last start but from barrier 1 today he should be right in the finish.
TIP: Belwazi / Fica Gal EW
Race 4
Interesting little race. I tweeted during the week that the $1.75 for BRAVE SMASH was awfully short and that his stablemate KEN’S DREAM could be the value at $13. BRAVE SMASH is now out to $2.15 while Ken’s Dream is into $10. I’ll be backing both. Brave Smash is clearly the best horse in the race but he concedes race fitness here and is likely being targeted at 1400m-1600m Group 1 races later this Autumn. He wasn’t very convincing when he won here last prep either. His class may get him through and he’s now out to a backable price. KEN’S DREAM came into this campaign as a gelding, and after an eye-catching first up run, he put in a dominant win at Flemington last start. He comes here third up and ready to peak, and he’s got a good record at the track and distance. The same can probably be said about STELLAR COLLISION. THRONUM is undefeated first up from a spell and should be competitive, while MR SNEAKY has a terrific first up record and bolted in fresh over this distance last prep. FLIPPANT was probably wound up to win first up and would need to bring her absolute best to win this.
TIP: Brave Smash / Ken’s Dream EW
Race 5
Hard to split BURNING FRONT and WIDGEE TURF. Burning Front bounced back from a string of below-par runs to win the Chester Manifold Stakes at Flemington last start. He gets back to his best track, with three wins and a 2nd placing from four starts over this track and distance. He’ll jump straight to the lead from barrier 8 and I suspect we’ll see WIDGEE TURF box seat right on his heels from barrier 1. Widgee has won all three starts this campaign, but was a bit less convincing than I thought he’d be last start. If he reproduces his win at this track two starts ago, he will probably win. I think he’ll track Burning Front everywhere he goes before peeling off his back at the top of the straight and hopefully get home over the top of him. Hard to split them!
TIP: Widgee Turf
Race 6
Nice little race this with some talented types going around. I’ve got ILLUMICON and PREVAILING WINDS as equal top picks and will be backing both to win equal amounts. ILLUMICON comes up $3.60 and resumes from a spell. He debuted in Adelaide before coming to Melbourne and winning at Bendigo. He was then set to run in a good race (and was well-backed early) before being scratched due to shin soreness. The stable has a good opinion of this horse and he should go very close tonight. PREVAILING WINDS bolted in three starts ago but hasn’t had much go his way in a couple of subsequent runs. Last start he was held up horribly in the straight so forget he went around. Draws barrier 1 here so sure to need some luck but D Lane keeps the ride and if the gap comes expect him to be hitting the line very hard. He’s at $4.20 currently and Weir said he was his best of the weekend. Backing both, tipping Illumicon.
TIP: Illumicon
Race 7
This is a very uninspiring race. TUFF BICKIE goes on top after a solid win last start at Sandown when stepping back up to 2400m. The 2500m will be no issue here and provided Jye McNeil can slot in from barrier 7, he should run a good race at $7.50. Mick Kent may just have DIAMOND GRACE ready to go first up here. Generally, first up over 2500m isn’t ideal, but this is about the only stable I’d trust doing it. The horse ran huge first up over 2060m last prep and I have no doubts Kent will have her fit enough tonight. Concussion plates go on for the first time – once again never ideal but this stable has done that with success in the past so I’m more willing to let that slide. Draws to get a good run from barrier 4 and worth something on at $8 in an average race. BONDEIGER gets blinkers back on and much needed step up in distance, but his record at the track is poor. RAINDROPS ON ROSES should be very competitive in this field.
TIP: Tuff Bickie EW / Diamond Grace EW
Race 8
KNIGHT COMMANDER goes on top to finish the night. He comes off a super win at Geelong last start, where he won by 3.5L, and Weir’s horses tend to keep that form when they come to the city. D Lane takes over and from barrier 2 he should get every hope of saluting. TROJAN STORM won convincingly last start at Ballarat and can go on with it now. Craig Williams retains the ride for Tony McEvoy and should also enjoy a good run in the race from barrier 5. They look the two clear horses to beat but TIGIDIG TIGIDIG looks the blowout chance at $23. I talked him up on the podcast when he was $34 and he’s had a little bit of support since then. He’s not been doing much in recent starts but he has a terrific record at this track and distance with two wins and a placing from three starts. Draws barrier 1 and the jockey/trainer combo had a metro winner last week. Could run a cheeky race at big odds!
TIP: Knight Commander / Tigidig Tigidig EW
QUADDIE
1, 6
2, 5, 7, 11
2, 4, 8, 9, 11
5, 9, 10, 13
$100 = 62.5%
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