Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Friday night racing at Moonee Valley on December 8th.
We have an eight-race card to look forward to ahead of Group 1 Kingston Town Classic Day at Ascot on Saturday, and the Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin on Sunday. The rail goes out 3m for tonight’s meeting and as always, it will likely be advantageous to be up on speed and on the rail.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below.
MOONEE VALLEY RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 7 Pravro EW
Best Value: Race 1 Aristia
Race 1
Borderline impossible way to kick off the night with a field of eight unraced two-year-olds, including two that haven’t trialled publicly. The market has AL NAIFA favourite due to two good trials and the stable’s record with juveniles. She’s been ridden with a sit in both of her trials, so from barrier 3 I’d expect her to get the run of the race one-out and one-back. Definitely respecting her based on the trials and the stable, but $2.60 is short. In her latest trial, she beat GRACEFUL STAR by a head. They travelled to the line much the same, but it’s notable that Regan Bayliss rode both her and the stablemate YULONG MERCURY in trials that day, and he chooses to stick with Yulong Mercury. That filly trialled very nicely, going to the line alongside the winner, and they ran a faster time than Al Naifa did in the very next trial. My concern with Yulong Mercury is what they do with her from barrier 7. I suspect they drop her out and look for cover, which could make it hard to win, but purely based on the trials of that morning, she goes on top. I’m also interested in ARISTIA who had a jumpout at Flemington. She jumped out fast and showed good early speed but was trapped wide without cover for the majority of the trial, yet still closed off strongly to finish right up with the leaders, who were under pressure. She did hang out quite badly, which is a sign of inexperience, but from barrier 1 I’d be surprised if she wasn’t right up on speed (if not leading) and the rail will help her. At $15 I’ll definitely be having something on. I also wouldn’t be letting LADY HORSEOWNER go around without something on at $15. She’s from the astute Greg Eurell stable and is sure to have had some jumpouts at Cranbourne.
TIP: Yulong Mercury / Aristia EW
Race 2
Pretty keen to bet here. Very interested in this horse on debut by the name of CARMEN’S REWARD, who is a $6.50 chance. I don’t think this is a strong field at all and this horse has jumped out well at Caulfield in the lead up to this race. She jumped a bit slowly but mustered good speed and ended up kicking away to score quite nicely at the finish. With Katelyn Mallyon aboard I’d expect them to ride aggressively early and if she can find the lead without too much hassle, I think she’ll rail strongly and give a good sight. Keen to have a decent each way bet at that price. CHAMPAGNE IN PARIS can bounce back after a poor showing last start on Soft ground. Before that she ran 2nd to Emaan, and I think that’s a decent formline for a race like this. From barrier 10 they will likely be positive given the horse led last start. Williams takes the ride and she can go close. KALLESKE is the interesting runner having its first start in Australia after a runner-up finish on debut in New Zealand. He’s been gelded since then and Steph Thornton takes the ride here after riding a treble at the Valley last week. I don’t know a great deal about this stable and I’m inclined to take them on. ALONZAH is another at double figure odds that should be included first up here. Backing Carmen’s Reward and something small on Champagne In Paris.
TIP: Carmen’s Reward / Champagne In Paris EW
Race 3
Bit of a lottery here. KARDASHING is the way I’ll go on an each way basis at the $6 mark. She was only just edged out by the undefeated Ocean Deep first up at Sandown and from barrier 2 here there’s little doubt they’ll push forward. Ethan Brown takes a valuable 2kg off and she should be very competitive from that gate. BELLA MARTINI ran 3rd behind Ocan Deep and Kardashing first up an gets a small weight swing in her advantage here. She was a dominant winner of her maiden when second up last preparation, so with the run under her belt and a good barrier she can go close here. BELLEGANO won two of her three starts in her first preparation and resumes for the first time since June. She’s had two very quiet trials leading into this. 3kg apprentice Boris Thornton takes the ride from barrier 8 so he’ll need to produce a gem to win in my opinion. Happy to risk LIGHT ROMANCE first up off a 45-day break and tackling 1200m for the first time in its career. TAGREEDA was a good winner over 1400m last prep but resumes here over 1200m and has barrier 11 so will get a long way back. The jockey booking isn’t one for me. CHEEKY AS is definitely one I’d include at double figure odds from the Weir camp. Third up from a spell here and bounced back to form last start. SMUG SATISFACTION is coming out of much stronger races and should be respected. The chances don’t end there either!
TIP: Kardashing EW
Race 4
Another very tough race here and hard to separate the leading chances. STAR HILLS looked to have serious ability when putting away his competition with ease on debut at Donald over 1000m back in July. My queries with him are the small-time trainer/jockey combination, along with the fact the form from his debut race hasn’t turned out to be great at all. But he won with authority and from barrier 13 he should roll forward to sit outside the speed here. OUR LUCA drops back to the 1000m here after failing over 1300m last start, but he did have excuses after stumbling at the start and nearly falling. First up he won well over 1000m and with the claim for Steph Thornton he should be competitive. TRIAGE is the big unknown here. He trialled particularly well leading into his debut in South Australia and backed up that trial form with a solid win at Balaklava. He went straight to town but dropped out to finish last and pulled up shin-sore. Since then, he’s had a change of stable and is now with David Brideoake, with Ben Melham an ominous jockey booking. Draws well and if he’s 100% sound, he would give this a real shake. Hard to split all of those. With those three in the race I’m inclined to take on ALASKAN SUN first up here. The value could be FICA GIRL who won first up last prep and has trialled well leading into this. Not a confident betting race but taking a chance on Star Hills.
TIP: Star Hills
Race 5
Another deep race and plenty will depend on how the track is playing at this stage of the night. CAMILA LUCINDA led all the way last week but the track was suiting leaders all night and the horse that ran 2nd really should have won. She gets the blinkers on for the first time tonight and drops in weight to 53.5kg from 56kg last week. Undoubtedly the tactics will be exactly the same, so expect her to jump straight to the front from barrier 2. There is a bit of tempo on here, however, and despite the fact she ticks some boxes, she may not have things as easy as she had it last week. I won’t be losing on her but I’ve got MISS VESPER on top instead. She should get a perfect run just on the heels of the leaders first up here, and she’s undefeated from two previous first up runs. Ben Melham takes the ride and she’s already proven her ability at this track with a good run for 2nd in harder grade than this last preparation. $5.50 is a reasonable price. WORLD OF HOPE was the only horse to really make ground against the pattern last week when running 2nd to Belwazi over track and distance. Barrier 9 could actually be a good thing here because it will allow her to wind up clear of traffic. Williams sticks and if the tempo is on as expected then this could very well be your winner. LA RENARDE shouldn’t be discounted first up. Backing Miss Vesper, saving on the others mentioned.
TIP: Miss Vesper
Race 6
Interested in SHARING here at each way odds of $7.50 but we’re going to need luck. This horse has talent when it’s sound, and it typically races best fresh with a record of two wins and a placing from three starts when first up. Also has a good record at the distance and draws nicely in barrier 4 here, but she tends to settle back in the field, hence we’ll need some luck to get the breaks at the right time. But if she turns up at her best and gets a bit of luck, she’ll be in this up to her ears and I think the price is worth the gamble. Also backing FEDEROSA who comes across from South Australia with reasonable form at the distance. She’s only come across once before to race at the Valley and she won, so when the Jolly stable bring them across them deserve to be respected. She’s also at each way odds. Wouldn’t be discounting Weir’s STREETS OF LIBERTY who ran well last start off a little freshen up after a luckless run when finishing last behind Gwenneth here two starts ago.
TIP: Sharing / Federosa EW
Race 7
We backed PRAVRO last week and I think it’s worth sticking with him again tonight. He really had no chance of winning from where he was last week with the way the track was playing, but the rail being out 3m may mean it’s a bit fairer. He should get a good run from barrier 5 and third up he looks ready to win. Happy to back up and take $8. Also backing HE’S A MORAL at $8.50. He drops in grade after a luckless run over track and distance last time out, and his form prior was good with two wins. He’ll need a gun ride from Ethan Brown from barrier 10. I wouldn’t rule out SIRFONTEIN first up. The horse has a good first up record and its only time out of the placings fresh was last preparation when it was trapped wide without cover. EPIC MOMENT looks very short to my eye at $4.20 with Jordan Grob on board from barrier 16. He’s never placed first up and has just the two placings from five starts at the distance. JUST HIFALUTIN is going to need plenty of luck from barrier 1 with its racing style.
TIP: Pravro / He’s A Moral EW
Race 8
Very hard to go past the favourite SO FAR SOKOOL here who comes out of some serious form races. Two starts ago he ran 2nd to Tamasa, who should be undefeated, while last start he ran 2nd to Yulong Xingsheng in Listed grade at Sandown. Gets the ideal run here from barrier 6 and it’d be very surprising if he didn’t win this. LORETO looks the logical danger after running 3rd last start despite pulling up with mucus post-race. She gets the blinkers applied for the first time here. HER COMMAND has placed in her last four starts in similar grade and can be thrown in at $34.
TIP: So Far Sokool
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
