Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for Group 1 Moir Stakes night at Moonee Valley on Friday, September 29th.
Along with the Moir Stakes we also have the Group 3 Scarborough Stakes, Group 3 JRA Cup, Group 2 Stocks Stakes and Group 2 Stutt Stakes on the eight-race card. The track is rated a Good 4 with the rail out 4m.
We have betting tip and comments for every race below to kick off a huge weekend of racing!
MOONEE VALLEY RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 2 So You Too
Best Value: Race 7 Terravista
Race 1
Tricky race to start off. KOBAYASHI has a stack of gear changes here. Bar plates come off for the first time, nose band off, tongue tie off, winkers on. The bar plates coming off tells me his feet may be good for the first time in a while, which should bring about improvement. He comes out of the strongest form races behind the likes of Merchant Navy, he’s third up now at his best distance, and Joao Moreira takes the ride. He’ll go forward and looks tough to beat here. CORUSCATE is first up here and draws to get a lovely run behind the speed. His form over the likes of Single Bullet is very good, but the Godolphin Melbourne runners haven’t exactly set the world on fire in recent weeks. MURAAQEB was slightly disappointing first up but it was in a strong race. Bandipur came out of that race and won again last weekend, and his form behind Trapeze Artist from last prep also looks good now. He gets blinkers for the first time here and draws the inside gate so expect sharp improvement. EXPERIMENTATION bolted in to break his maiden four weeks ago on the Pakenham Synthetic. It was in a pretty slow time but the winning margin was more than four lengths and he draws well here so may lead this field up. Hard to know how good he is but we will find out plenty tonight. OVER EXPOSURE won his maiden easily at Balaklava on debut. The winning margin was only 1.7L, but he sat four and five wide the trip and still pulled away. There was a big break back to third and McEvoy now brings him straight to the city which is a strong pointer. Kobayashi narrowly on top for me, but very wary of Experimentation and Over Exposure.
TIP: Kobayashi
Race 2
Pretty keen on SO YOU TOO here because this is a race with plenty of dead weight and plenty of horses that just don’t get conditions to suit. So You Too resumed with a big run at Morphettville when caught four-wide without cover before coming five-wide around the turn and still managing to run 2nd. Has a great record at the distance and also second up from a spell. Draws the inside gate here so expect to see her much closer to the speed and she’s one horse that definitely has things to suit. Taking $3.80. MILES OF KRISHAN may be looking for 1400m and beyond but she could run a big race here at double figure odds. Her first up record is outstanding and she’s never finished outside the top two from four runs at the distance. She draws wide so they’ll be taking her back, but look for her late if they run along. LABUAN STAR will be thereabouts in the finish after two wins from three starts this prep. Can sit midfield from barrier 3 but he’s never won from five starts at the track. MUBAKKIR has to be included at double figure odds. ORIENT LINE and SUSPENSE others for consideration.
TIP: So You Too (Best Bet) / Miles Of Krishan EW
Race 3
HOUTZEN should be winning this. She drops back from WFA Group 2 company behind a serious Group 1 sprinter in Russian Revolution, back to Group 3 fillies grade at level weights. I think she’ll win, but at $1.40 I can’t be pushing anyone into backing her. I’m not sure she handled the Valley that well first up so she’s not the most confident of $1.40 plays. Outside her there is two at big odds I’d include and possibly prefer backing on a place line. The first is MINTHA. This is a good filly and Tony McEvoy has a big opinion of her. First up she was held up in the straight and when she got to the outside she reeled off the fastest late sectional in the race. Currie takes over for the ride today and she draws very nicely in barrier 4. At $31/$5.10 I’ll be having something on her. WANTED DIVA is the other to look for. Joao Moreira takes the ride on the Hayes/Dabernig filly first up from a spell. She’s a winner over the track and distance, and from all reports her trials have been outstanding. She draws awkwardly but again, she’s not the worst $31 pop.
TIP: Houtzen / Mintha EW
Race 4
They’re going to go a furious pace here in the 955m dash because SUPER TOO, SUPER MAXI and MADEENATY are all speedballs. At the prices I’m leaning towards Madeenaty here. I think 955m will be right up her alley, because she’s always challenging until late in her races when she empties out. First up she ran 2nd to Crown Witness and I think that’s the form line to follow as Crown Witness then came out and beat Catchy. From barrier 5 I think she’ll sit outside Super Too in the run, and if Super Too isn’t able to run them into the ground like she did last start (which I don’t think she’ll be able to do) then I think Madeenaty can peel off her and run over the top. Taking $4.20. As mentioned, Super Too simply ran them into the ground last start, but she’s not the only horse we’ve seen do that in Sydney recently. I also have a slight query over that form. From barrier 1 she will bounce straight to the lead and she’ll get every chance to run them off their feet, but if they’re within touch on the turn I think they can get the better of her. Super Maxi was only run down by a good one first up in Speedeor. Is he better on soft ground? Possibly. The 3kg claim brings him down to a nice weight but I don’t think he can lead here and I query where he will end up in the run. ROCK ‘N’ GOLD can go well at double figures.
TIP: Madeenaty
Race 5
Interesting race. I’ve got TAVAGO on top here at the $6.50 mark. He finished 7th first up in the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes over 1600m behind Humidor and Hartnell, beaten 5.5L, but his second up record is outstanding with two wins from three starts. Last prep he was beaten 6.5L first up over 1600m behind Winx, and then came out and bolted in by 3.3L second up over 2000m. He follows a similar path here with the step up to 2040m second up, and Bowman is a key jockey booking. If he improves like he did at his second start last prep, he’s a big winning chance here despite the big weight. I was very keen on STAR EXHIBIT last start when he threw the rider at the start. He had everything in his favour that day, but the wide draw today makes things tough. The bonus is he gets Damian Lane booked for the ride, but it’s hard to see him getting a good run in the race. If Lane does manage to slot him in midfield, then he’ll go very close. FOUNDATION was absolutely luckless last start when held up the entire straight over this track and distance. He probably should have won that race, and gets a big jockey change today with Bayliss taking over from Jake Duffy. He looks a nice each way bet but I’d prefer to see him win one before I back him. I think LORD DURANTE and SPANISH REEF are both definite horses to include in multiples at $71 and $31 respectively. They, along with ECUADOR, are the likely leaders. LORD DURANTE only went down narrowly last start over track and distance in the same race as Foundation. Admittedly Foundation probably should have won, but Foundation is $6 here and Lord Durante is $71. He was only beaten 0.4L, he’ll put himself straight into the race from barrier 4 and he’ll be there a long way. SPANISH REEF was run down by Samovare last start and she’s a very smart mare. That was her first run in five weeks so with that run under her belt and the step up to 2000m again she could be another that is tough to run down.
TIP: Tavago EW
Race 6
I was keen on LIZZIE L’AMOUR first up and she went backwards but pulled up with an issue so I’m prepared to forgive her for that. Murray Baker actually said leading into that run that he thought she was actually a better chance than Bonneval, so if that’s any indication of her ability then she must be pretty good. The concern is she’s never won from four starts at the distance, but I think she’ll go close tonight from the inside gate with Bowman on board. $7.00/$2.50 is a good each way price for mine. HELL OR HIGHWATER will jump straight to the front as she does and she’ll be tough to run down. She’s won three straight and beat Harlem last start who then came out and bolted in at his next start. She’s got a great record at the distance and has won her only start at the track and distance. I AM A STAR stays in Melbourne for this race in preference to running in the Epsom. She’s another with a great record at the track and distance, but I’m not convinced she’s going as well as recent preps so I’ll be taking her on at the prices. JENNIFER LYNN and EXOCET represent the value in the race, while HEAVENLY DESCENT and RISQUE are the blowouts. Include FLYING JESS.
TIP: Lizzie L’Amour EW
Race 7
This is a cracking field, and the capacity numbers make it tough. I think RUSSIAN REVOLUTION is the real deal and a genuine WFA Group 1 sprinter. He ticked a couple of boxes first up when I thought he was dominant in winning the Group 2 McEwen Stakes. He showed us that Good ground is no issue, 1000m is no issue, and Moonee Valley is no issue. He draws horribly here which is an obvious concern, and if he had have drawn a good gate I think he’d be $2.50 for this. So I’m happy to take the Ladbrokes enhanced odds and bump him up to $4.00 in the hope he gets a good ride and just proves himself as the superior sprinter. I am very, very keen on TERRAVISTA at each way odds of $15/$4.50. His fresh record stands at nine starts, six wins and three placings. His last two first up runs have been a 0.1L defeat to Redzel, and a 0.1L win in the Group 1 Lightning Stakes. He’s never finished outside the top two from four starts at 1000m, and I think he draws the perfect barrier to get a soft run behind an expected hot tempo. I think he’s a terrific each way bet here. I’d be keen on MALAGUERRA but the gate puts me off him. In saying that, first up last prep he bolted in at this track over 1200m, beating Black Heart Bart by 2L. I just struggle to see where he gets in the run, but there’s no denying he’s got an outstanding first up record too, and if he gets any luck he’ll be right there. Very keen to take on SHE WILL REIGN. We took on Houtzen first up for the same reasons and it paid off. I’m always very cautious with champion two-year-olds returning for their first start as a three-year-old, especially against seasoned Group 1 sprinters like Russian Revolution and co. First up, first time at Moonee Valley, red hot field, wide draw. Leave me out of backing her at $4.60. Prepared to take the loss if she wins. VOODOO LAD and VIDDORA can surprise at big odds, HEATHERLY will be thereabouts. SWEET SHERRY the absolute blowout – she’ll get a great run from the barrier and goes well at the track.
TIP: Russian Revolution / Terravista EW (Best Value)
Race 8
This looks a really tough way to end the card but there is one horse that appeals to me at double figure odds and that’s MIGHTY BOSS at $18. This horse ran 2nd to Lina’s Hero first up (seriously good horse) and then bumped into Royal Symphony last start. He may have finished 7th but he was held up until the 250m mark before working home strong. Third up, up to 1600m, with two good form lines to back up his runs, I think he can swoop home late with the pace expected to be good. The money has come for THE MISSION here who tackles this on the one-week back-up after finishing 2nd last in the Golden Rose last weekend. Finished last first up, so I find it very hard to back him here at $7. MASCULINO will go straight to the front again and be tough to run down. He had things suit him when winning last start but from the good gate he’ll do no work. WASSERGEIST and HOLY SNOW others to include. Tough race so something small each way on Mighty Boss to close out the card.
TIP: Mighty Boss EW
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Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
