Back to Flemington this weekend which is where we hit 6 winners from 8 races two weeks ago. The track is currently a Good 4 but there is a few millimeters of rain predicted so we may end up in the Slow range.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below.
Don't forget that BeforeYouBet is running a free to enter racing tournament this Saturday at TopBetta! The winner of the tournament will earn a ticket, valued at $110, into next weekend's Saturday Metro Mayhem tournament for the chance to win a share of the guaranteed $5k prize pool!
Really, really keen to have a bet here. There's only two horses I'm interested in and at the odds we can definitely back both. The first is RUBY SEA who has won two from two this prep. Her latest win was very impressive, bursting clear to win by over 2 lengths over 1600m at Sandown. She drops 1kg here, stays at the 1600m and has performed on both Good and Soft so conditions will suit. $3 is about right. The second horse is SPANISH REEF who comes up $7.50 but I've got her rated around $4. She also won over the 1600m at Sandown last start on a Soft 5, and her time was 1:38.41. Ruby Sea's time in her win was 1:38.74. Coincidentally, Nicodame was the horse back in 3rd on both occasions. Ruby Sea beat Nicodame by 2.5L, Spanish Reef beat Nicodame by 3.5L. So the form lines up with the times, and Spanish Reef will get the run of the race from barrier 5. So for her to be $7.50 is purely wrong and I'll be having a good crack at those odds. We can back both here, and I'm extremely keen to lock in the odds before they disappear.
Tip: Ruby Sea / Spanish Reef (Best Value)
Really keen on KILLARNEY KID here. He's had three runs back from a spell and his latest start suggested he was ready to win. His record is 34:12-4-3 and in his first three runs back from a spell, his record is 17:2-2-1. Which means his record at his fourth run back and beyond is 17:10-2-2. He's won 3 from 5 at the track, 8 from 11 at the distance, and has 3 wins and a placing over this track and distance. Can settle closer from barrier 2 today and $4.20 is a good price.EXTRA ZERO is the value here - he won over this track and distance two starts ago and then put in another great effort last start over a track that doesn't suit him. $9 looks big and he'll run an honest race. HOT RUBY takes on the boys and is up in grade but down in weight and racing well. $8 available for her.
Tip: Killarney Kid
TSARITSA bounced back to form last start with a fast finishing 2nd behind Schism. She was beaten 1.3L over this track and distance on that occasion but the key today is the 3.5kg weight swing in her favour. She should sit midfield from barrier 1 and I think she will be able to turn the tables, so $4.80 is a great price. Waller's Melbourne runners are flying at the moment so pretty confident she will be in the finish if Newitt can give her a clear run. SCHISM will get a great run from barrier 6 and can adopt similar tactics to last start. Stays weighted well enough to win. HELL OR HIGHWATER is the value in the race at double figure odds but I will wait for her to step up to 1600m next start before getting on her. She should be ready to win soon though. MOVIE should be kept safe.
Looks a formality for ROYAL SYMPHONY here who has been dominant in his two starts to date and was ultra impressive last start. Expect him to once again take care of this field but at $1.40 we'll look elsewhere for our bets. Really keen on ANCHOR BID as the value here at $11 and $2.40 for the place. That's the direction I'll be heading in the race. First up he was well backed at odds when finishing 3rd at Ballarat. Came to town last start in the same race as Royal Symphony (and was actually our best value in the race that day too), and his run was a complete forgive after being steadied at the 200m and held up for the rest of the race. The money has come for him here and it's easy to see why. Royal Symphony obviously the one to beat but we'll have a 1X3 bet on Anchor Bid here.
Tip: Royal Symphony / Anchor Bid EW
Only two I'm interested in here which are INVINCIBLE AL and OVERSTEP, who ran the quinella for us last start over 1100m. Overstep found the front a fair way from home and Invincible Al came from well back to get within a nose on the line. Going to stick with Invincible Al who is probably favoured by the draw which should allow him to get to the outside, whereas Overstep draws barrier 2 and may find trouble getting to the better ground. Having said that, she did win along the inside a few starts back over this track and distance and is 1kg better off at the weights to Invincible Al today.. I think they are the two clear standouts and happy to back both, but will have Invincible Al for a better return.
Tip: Invincible Al
Even race for the stayers and I think there's a couple at value here. CHARLEVOIX is the one to beat after winning comfortably over 2500m last start with the blinkers on for the first time. He rises 4kg in weight here but is sure to enjoy a great run once more from barrier 2. He did, however, get everything go right last start with the low weight, blinkers on first time, good draw and great run. He might have a bit more competition here. I think the odds available for BULLISH STOCK are appealing here. He ran 3rd to Charlevoix last start after running on strongly from the back of the field. It is important to note that he was 1800m up to 2500m last start, so with that run under his belt he should really be peaking for this race. From the wide draw he'll have to go back again but I think he can win. There is another at huge odds that I'd recommend having something on and that's NORDIC FLIGHT. We were on this horse at 200/1 last start and he ran a decent race, beaten 5.5L in the Charlevoix race. He was first up for 53 days and was held up at a critical point of the race at the top of the straight. He then had to pull out across heels and come down the outside and actually didn't finish off too bad. He'll be fitter here and could run a good race at 30/1 despite the big weight.
Tip: Bullish Stock / Nordic Flight EW
Tough race this with a number of chances. I'll take the $5 on offer for AMOVATIO. He came down to Melbourne and ran 10th but he never saw an ounce of daylight in the straight at Moonee Valley. As mentioned above, Waller's Melbourne runner are flying at present and I'm expecting a huge run from Amovatio. Has won twice at the track, which includes once at this distance, Oliver takes the ride and he should have no trouble finding clear air from barrier 10. SOVEREIGN NATION is probably the best of the Hayes/Dabernig runners. He won very well first up before flattening out second up. That's not unusual for him though, and he tends to bounce back at his third up run. STRIKE FORCE look a big price at $13. Carries no weight, draws barrier 1, comes off a solid win where the form has stood up, and has won his only start over track and distance. Plenty of other chances in a wide open race.
Tip: Amovatio / Strike Force EW
ABILITY is the clear standout here after two hugely impressive wins to open his campaign following a gelding operation. Had to burst through a tight gap last start after being held up from the 300m to the 200m mark but when he got out he charged home. Clearly goes well down the straight so no concerns there and he looks to most unexposed horse in the race. The only slight concern would be his third up record but he's a different horse this prep and with 54kg on his back I'd be surprised if he was to lose. Thought he'd be shorter than $3.10. There's been some money for TASHBEEH and HUSSON EAGLE. I'll be taking both on. Tashbeeh has a great record down the straight but his second up record is poor, while Husson Eagle's record over 1200m is also poor. CAMDUS the main danger and the value.
Tip: Ability (Best Bet)
I flagged MY PAISANN as the value in the race last start at huge odds and it saluted after settling last and charging home late. I think she can make the step up to this class and the rise in distance will only help her improve. She goes up in weight but draws very well and at $6 I'll have her on top. The biggest danger could be URBAN RULER who also settled last in his last start from a wide barrier, before charging home to finish 4th, beaten less than a length. He will likely go back once again from the wide gate but he'll once again be somewhere in the finish. JAMINZAH could be one at odds to include. He won two starts back and actually beat My Paisann on that occasion, before racing tight in the straight last start. FIRST APPROACH and CANNOT BE SERIOUS others to include.
Tip: My Paisann / Jaminzah EW
Take note: Any of the tips in this article are simply the author’s opinion, so bet at your own risk and always gamble responsibly. Also be sure to check out the Before You Bet Twitter Page for all our thoughts in the lead up to bets! Happy punting!
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