Flemington Racing Tips for Saturday, January 20th

Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Flemington on Saturday, January 20th.

We have a nine-race card on a Good 3-4 track with the rail in the 9m position. Melbourne is forecast to get extreme heat in the lead up to Saturday, so I’m tipping we’ll be racing on a particularly firm track, and if that’s the case, it could play fairly leaderish with the rail out. With that said, the first three races are all distance races, so it will be hard to gauge what pattern there is (if any) early.

We have betting tips and comments for every race below, but be sure to listen to this week's podcast first where Tim discusses this week's best betting races at both Flemington and Randwick! You can also find our Randwick Racing Tips for today here!

FLEMINGTON RACING TIPS

Best Bet: Race 6 Addison
Best Value: Race 9 Simply Splashing EW

Race 1

Competitive race to start off with but there’s three I’m keen on. SHOREHAM is airborne this preparation and I can’t see any reason he can’t be right in the finish again here. He was unlucky not to win last start after being held up at a crucial point in the straight. From barrier 11 he should either roll across to the lead or at least sit outside the leader. Two starts ago he beat both GUIZOT and PORTION CRONTROL and meets them at almost identical weights. $6.50 seems reasonable. ROYAL ACE flew home to be beaten a nose by Widgee Turf last start after settling well back in the field. First time at 1800m and first time at Flemington but I can’t see either of those being an issue. He will need luck from barrier 2 though – every chance he gets locked away on the rail back in the field. I’ve got a feeling ARCHERY PEAK could run a big race here at $23. He’s first up from a spell here and back in the UK his first up record was good. In fact, he broke his maiden first up over 1600m off a 737-day spell! Jordan Childs jumps off Guizot to ride Archery Peak for Matt Cumani, and they are always a combo to look out for. All his best racing over here has so far been over further but how often do we see these European stayers improve at their second preparation in Australia? Damien Oliver jumps off MUTARAKEM to ride stablemate LE JUGE but Chris Waller said that’s because Ollie couldn’t ride 54kg, so I wouldn’t read too much into it. Waller’s Melbourne stable is flying so both should be competitive. WILLI WILLI should be suited up in trip but 1400m to 1800m is a slight query. Williams takes over today and while he’s a legitimate winning chance, he’s a touch short for mine. I won’t be betting big here but I’ll be backing Royal Ace, Shoreham and Archery Peak at huge odds.

TIP: Royal Ace / Shoreham EW (Archery Peak)

Race 2

Another competitive race. LAST WEEK probably deserves to be favourite but he’s very short at $2.60. It’s his first time at the trip and he jumps sharply from 2000m to 2500m, and we don’t know whether he will handle that distance. What I will say is that he’s in the right stable to do so with Weir sure to have him spot on for the extra 500m. Should also enjoy a great run from barrier 4. I’m interested in GOODWOOD ZODIAC who we know will run the trip, because he’s done so for his last six starts. In four of his last five starts he’s carried 60-62kg, so he won’t know himself with 52.5kg here. SERENADE THE STARS got the better of him last time but Goodwood Zodiac gets a 5.5kg weight swing in his favour today. With that said, SERENADE THE STARS is coming off a sound win over 2400m and is every chance of saluting again today. I do expect to see sharp improvement from AL HARAM at $9, who is having his third run in Australia. He’s another horse that jumps from 2000m to 2500m, but unlike Last Week, I’m okay with that because we know this is his best distance, so it’s less of an issue. If we look back through his European form we see that he ran 2^nd to a Group 1 winner in Talismanic. EATON is not a $51 chance. He ran 3^rd behind Last Week and Civil Disobedience two starts ago and then got caught three-wide the trip last start when only beaten 1.2L. Much better drawn here and definitely one to include in numbers. Backing Goodwood Zodiac and Al Haram with a penny on Eaton.

TIP: Goodwood Zodiac / Al Haram EW

Race 3

Three I’ll be backing here. CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE is likely the winner. He’s certainly short enough at $2.40 but he beat Last Week last start and that horse is favourite for Race 2 – we’ll get a decent gauge on how the form lines up there. Civil Disobedience is undefeated at the distance and his last start win was at this track and distance, so despite the hike in the weights, he should be tough to beat again. CAVALERO looks the obvious value in the race to me. He bolted in to break his maiden three starts ago and was luckless in his next start at Cranbourne when held up until the 200m mark. He bounced back to win last start over 1700m at this track; the horse he beat (Krusty) is favourite for a later race and the 3^rd horse (Bedford) came out and bolted in by 5L on Wednesday, so I think that form is strong. 2000m looks no concern and he looks well over the odds at $14. ALMIGHTY CROWN is a horse that shouldn’t be underestimated. Waller sent him down from Sydney last start and he trounced a maiden field at Yarra Valley. Granted, this is a huge step up in class, but he won very convincingly and these horses Waller sends down from Sydney are always competitive in Melbourne city company. With the good draw I think he’ll run a big race at $17. GRETSKY a chance. Backing Civil Disobedience with something small on Cavalero and Almighty Crown.

TIP: Civil Disobedience / Almighty Crown

Race 4

I think ADDISON is one of the best bets of the card here. We just have to hope horses are making ground to this point of the day because she will be right out the back of the field. She beat some of these horses two starts ago and met a number of them again last start, when she flew home from the back of the field to be beaten a nose by SHENANDOAH. That day was favouring on-pacers and Shenandoah led, so with a weight swing in her favour today and the bigger track, I think Addison has her covered. BONUS D’ORO could be the value at $8. She hasn’t had much go her way recently and she comes out of the same race behind Shenandoah last start. She closed off with close to the best last sectionals of the race, so with the better draw she could feature in the finish. BERTWHISTLE has won three straight, including a convincing win in Adelaide last start, and makes the trip to Melbourne for this. Always respect the form of Adelaide horses when they make the trip over, particularly at this time of year. Definitely saving at the $8.50 on offer. I wouldn’t completely discount RIVER GODDESS at $19 – she keeps being backed in the market and her second and third up runs are always poor. Her first up win suggests she’s going well enough, so with those two flat runs out of the way, she could improve out of sight here. SO SPLENDID and SHENANDOAH not hopeless but I think with even luck Addison has them covered. Backing Addison hard, something on Bonus D’Oro and saving both Bertwhistle and River Goddess.

TIP: Addison / Bonus D’Oro EW

Race 5

Tough race. Five main chances for mine. KRUSTY goes on top with my only concerns being the barrier draw and the jockey booking. Barrier 8 could see it planted wide and Craig Williams to Mitch Aitken is certainly not a positive jockey change! With that said, the horse is flying. His last three starts have all been very good. Last start he motored home to just go down to Cavalero, with Bedford back in third another 2.5L away. Bedford came out and won by 5L on Wednesday, so the form looks good, and I’m expecting Cavalero to go well in an earlier race. Gets 3kg weight relief today and the blinkers go back on, so he really should go close in this at $5. I’m sticking with GUANGZHOU, who should be ready to win. He looks value at $8. His first up run was very good, and last start he just got too far back on a leader-biased track at Sandown Lakeside. I thought he still finished off well and he should be ready to win today fourth up from a spell. Senior rider Michael Dee takes over, which is the first time all prep he’s had a senior jockey on, and the blinkers are also applied. Well drawn and expecting a big run. TAN TAT TRUSTING at $8.50 is another who can give this a good shake. He’s second up here after a fair first up run, and second up last prep he bolted in to win his maiden at Sandown. Drawn well, Williams goes on and appears a big chance. MR OPTIMISTIC did little last start but he never does anything second up from a spell. He’s had five runs when second up and has never placed, but he has won one of only two starts when third up, so expect sharp improvement. Poorly drawn but one to include at big odds. SOHOOL won very well last start coming from the back of the field and I rate the form behind Simply Splashing from two starts ago. Not to be discounted at $6.50. Backing Krusty and Guangzhou, with savers on the other three.

TIP: Krusty / Guangzhou EW

Race 6

I really do hate these straight races but HANDSOME THIEF looks to be one of the best bets on the card here. I think he’s a pretty good horse and could be destined for better races than this. He probably should have won first up when he had no luck at all. He was held up until the 200m mark and when he got out he motored home to run 3^rd, beaten less than a length. He was well backed for that race, so he has definitely come back in great order. All four of his wins have been over this distance so the step up from 1100m to 1200m is a plus as well. The wide barrier shouldn’t be too much of an issue given it’s down the straight, though they will likely migrate towards the fence. Happy with $3.60. We backed MURPHY’S REWARD as our value bet in the race last start when he ran 2^nd in the same race that Handsome Thief ran 3^rd in. He looks a legitimate chance once again today, with Steph Thornton taking the ride and therefore taking 3kg off, meaning he drops 2.5kg on his last run. Once again, the wide draw isn’t too much of a concern and he’s won third up previously. $12 looks over the odds. JUST HIFALUTIN should go close. I like the form behind Wise Hero, and she’s got a terrific record at this distance. Has run 2^nd twice from two starts down the straight so should be thereabouts.

TIP: Handsome Thief / Murphy’s Reward EW

Race 7

All things being equal, NATURE STRIP should just win this and win it quite convincingly. He looks a Group 1 horse in the making, and he’s set to race in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate next month. His last start win at Sandown was simply amazing and the $1.55 looks a nice multi builder. Outside of him, PREZADO looks the logical danger first up after winning a 1000m race down the straight during the Spring carnival. $1.83 to run a place seems appealing. SEE ME EXCEED was horribly unlucky first up last start and should be fighting it out for a place. $3.10 available for a place and that looks a terrific price.

TIP: Nature Strip

Race 8

This race is a bit of a nightmare. You could make a genuine case for every runner. I’ve ultimately landed on HUSSON EAGLE on top. He’s got a terrific first up record with three wins and a 2^nd from five starts, and he’s also got a solid record over the track and distance. He’ll settle at the back of this field and he should get the race run to suit. They will fly along up front with AMBER SKY and LORD OF THE SKY involved, and he may just be good enough to run over the top of them late. He’s priced at $5.50. ITZ INVINCIBLE is another I’ll be backing. He’s at double figure odds ($10) and comes over from Adelaide after a convincing first up win. His second up record is very good and Paul Gatt makes the trip over for just the one ride. FLAMBERGE is a multiple Group 1 winner and typically goes well fresh. All reports are he’s trialling very well but he’s eight years old now, and how much improvement can a horse have after being transferred from Darren Weir? AMBER SKY is the most interesting runner. He’s a Group 1 winner in Dubai and comes here after doing his racing in Hong Kong. He’ll be suited by the straight (his seven wins have all been over 1000m and the 1000m course in Hong Kong is a straight course). He’s been lighting up the trials in seriously impressive fashion, but he’s first up since last March and hasn’t won since 2014! He’s also eight. He’ll jump and run very fast, but may just feel the pinch late. LORD OF THE SKY was somewhat a surprise winner of the Standish first up and he typically improves second up. He’s got four wins from seven starts when he’s second up but Damien Oliver jumps off to ride SARACINO. Saracino is the X-factor horse. He’s always had ability and is still only four, so we may be yet to see the best of him. He’s been gelded since last prep and I’ll be keeping him very safe here. THERMAL CURRENT is racing consistently and gets the blinkers back on, while ROCK ‘N’ GOLD will appreciate the hot speed. Tough race! Backing Husson Eagle and Itz Invincible but keeping Saracino very safe.

TIP: Husson Eagle / Itz Invinicible EW

Race 9

I’ve been with Wise Hero all prep and he was our best bet of the day last start when he won over this track and distance. I think he’s a very good horse, and he may be even better suited today, though it is a harder race. He carries basically the same weight today with Steph Thornton once again booked for the ride, and he’ll roll forward again from barrier 9. The reason he may be better suited today is because he was stepping up from 1000m to 1400m last start, so he’s had that run at the distance and stays at 1400m today. Pretty keen on the $4.50. Outside of him there is some value around. THE AVENGER was another Waller runner sent down from Sydney and he got the job done at his first start in Melbourne. As we’ve seen, these Waller runners that come down generally maintain their form, so from the good draw and with D Oliver on again, he should be very competitive. SIMPLY SPLASHING is hugely over the odds at $23. He’s flying this prep with two wins and two 2nds from five starts. The only time he didn’t place was last start when he was badly held up from the 150m mark. The form from his win two starts ago has since stood up, with Chippenham (2^nd) and Sohool (3^rd) both winning their next starts. STAR STEALER was dominant in the country last start and Weir runners that come to the city off wins like that generally measure up. CURRAGH has won three of his four first up runs and looks a chance at $13. Backing Wise Hero, but value in The Avenger and Simply Splashing. Save on Curragh and Star Stealer?

TIP: Wise Hero / The Avenger EW (Simply Splashing)

EARLY QUADDIE (R2 – R5)          QUADDIE (R6 – R9)

2, 3, 4, 8, 10                                    3, 5, 6, 11, 13

1, 2, 3, 7                                          4

2, 4, 7, 9                                          1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8

3, 6, 10, 11, 12                               3, 6, 8, 12, 13

$100 = 25%                                     $100 = 55.55%

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