Happy New Year punters! Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Flemington on New Year’s Day.
We have an eight-race card with the track rated a Good 4 with the rail out 6m. We should have perfect conditions and I’m expecting the track to play fairly.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below.
FLEMINGTON RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 2 Wise Hero
Best Value: Race 8 Sensation Ally EW / All About Rhythm EW
Race 1
As is the theme at the moment, we open the card with a host of debutantes, a few of which have yet to be seen publicly, so there’s a bit of guesswork involved. I’m mostly interested in the bottom three runners. I’d suggest KHULAASA is the pick of the Hayes runners with Damien Oliver booked for the ride. Hayes seems to think she’s very good, and while she may be suited over a touch further, I’d expect her to be very competitive here. The early money backs up those thoughts but obviously the market in the final minutes before the race will tell the story. The one I’ll be backing for the best result, however, will be the Archie Alexander-trained MIRETTE, with Jordan Childs to ride. This is an ominous combination and the stable is in good form. I’ve searched everywhere through the Ballarat trials to try and find a jumpout for her but there’s no sign of one, but I doubt they’d be bringing this filly here if she wasn’t up to it, and once again, the early betting tells me she’s a chance. $6.50 is the price we’re getting and I think she’ll start shorter than that. She’s bred by Unencumbered so she’ll have the speed. LA CELESTINA could give a good showing on debut for David Brideoake and Ryan Maloney at $7.50. GRACEFUL STAR didn’t have much luck on debut and the race experience could be important, so she’s not without a chance. Tough race to start off with but I’ll take the $6.50 for Mirette and save on Khulaasa.
TIP: Mirette
Race 2
Pretty keen on WISE HERO here and I think we’re getting a good price with $4.20 on offer. I think this race sets up perfectly for him and there’s queries about some of the other runners in the race. He’s had two runs back from a spell and has been beaten by a nose on both occasions. Last start was particularly eye-catching when he was backed off the map and motored home at the Valley on a day when it was hard to make ground. The obvious query here is the step up from 1000m to 1400m, which is something I’m always against, but in this case I think the horse is good enough to handle it. The biggest danger could be WILLI WILLI who resumed with a good run over 1400m behind Amadeus. He stays at the 1400m second up here and should be improved for the first up run. The Weir pair certainly aren’t without claims. The 1400m suits NIKITAS but he has to ump 60.5kg, while INDIAN THUNDER seems to be gradually rediscovering his best form after a recent win in Adelaide. He could be the value in the race at $7.50. CREATIVITY is a talented mare on the up but the 1400m is some query for her after tiring late last start over 1100m. She’s won at the distance previously but it was in a BM64 fillies race. JUST HIFALUTIN is absolutely flying but hasn’t had much success in three previous runs at the distance. Competitive little race!
TIP: Wise Hero
Race 3
This is a really tricky race. Going to take on the two favourites here. ARTICUS bounced back to his best form last start, as Weir can so often do with horses seemingly out of form, but now that he’s fit he should go on with it. He’s got to carry 60kg here though, so he certainly looks short enough in the market. If he was from any other stable he’d probably be double the price. I just can’t take the $3.70 we’re getting. I also can’t take $3.80 for SECOND BULLET, who is incredibly inconsistent. He does, however, seem to do his best racing at this track and distance, with three wins and four placings from nine starts. He looks capable of winning this on his best form but the price is still too short for me. I can’t believe it but I’m actually going with SHOREHAM on top here, who looks to have come back in terrific order this preparation. His run first up behind New Universe over 1400m was outstanding, and Ozi Choice, who ran 2nd in that race, has since come out and won three races in a row, and the horse Shoreham beat last start has since continued to run well. The obvious concern is the fact he’s had 10 starts at the distance for zero wins, but he gets in with 53kg and looks a different horse this preparation compared to what we’ve seen in his last couple of campaigns. I’m expecting sharp improvement here from the Lindsay Park import AL HARAM, who just didn’t go a yard on the heavy ground on his Australian debut. He gets a firm track and gets out to 2000m, and from all reports he’s trained on big time from that run. His European form is very strong, with a runner up finish to Group 1 winner Talismanic. O’LONERA is a horse I’m very wary of after a dominant win at Pakenham last start, while STRAIGHT JACKET should be competitive. GOLDEN MANE should be ready to do something third up, so really, you could make a case for every runner here.
TIP: Shoreham / Al Haram EW
Race 4
Keen on two runners here. LAST WEEK just keeps progressing through the grades and his last win at Moonee Valley was very good. He was badly held up but with the aid of a terrific ride from John Allen he went on to score quite comfortably in the end. Ethan Brown takes over to take the 2kg off, and there’s no reason he can’t go on with it here at $3.80. The value looks to be one of the Lindsay Park runners, RAINDOPS ON ROSES, with Craig Williams in the saddle. She won impressively last start at Mornington, when she was stepped up to the 2000m at her second run this preparation. She has a good third up record and she’s proven at the 2000m, so despite the wide draw I think she’ll give this a good shake at $9. The stablemates of those two runners also look capable of being competitive here. The Weir horse CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE steps up in class after winning at Mornington over 2000m last start. The horse he beat came out and won his next start by more than lengths, so the form looks reasonable. YOUNG HOSTESS steps up to 2000m after winning over 1750m at Geelong last time out. EUREKA STREET has only been fair this preparation but could be set to peak here third up.
TIP: Last Week / Raindrops On Roses EW
Race 5
Tough way to start the quaddie here with 16 runners and $6 the field. I’ve eventually landed on RESET ME I’M WILD on top but with no confidence. There was really good money for this gelding first up at Sandown, before eventually drifting just before the jump. He sat wide without cover and was beaten less than a length, before going down by just a pimple last start at Cranbourne behind YULONG SHENG LONG with 61kg. Gets some weight relief today and draws well but he’s going to need a very good ride from Jamie Mott to slice through the field. Third up and up to 1700m looks to suit, and we’re getting $8. I think the value in the field is PARALLEL WORLD at $11. She ran 2nd in her first two starts this campaign before breaking through at Pakenham last start. The win looked fairly strong and the 1700m is no issue; she’ll get a good run from barrier 5 and I think she’ll be very competitive. Two starts ago she crossed the line alongside BEDFORD, but she had a horror run throughout the race and she gets a weight swing in her favour today. Bedford won his next start so despite the majority of the form from the Pakenham standalone meeting so far being unpredictable, that form looks fairly sound. SHROUDED IN MIST bolted in to break its maiden in Adelaide last start and whenever Tony McEvoy brings horses to Melbourne you have to take notice. Weir’s pair SILENT GENERAL and YULONG SHENG LONG both come off last start wins but both draw poorly here. KRUSTY, RAPIDO CHAPARRO and MR MONEY BAGS all have claims in a wide open race.
TIP: Reset Me I’m Wild / Parallel World EW
Race 6
Really disappointing field for a Group 3 but it’s a tricky race nonetheless. I’ve ended up with MISS WONDERLAND on top after an impressive return when winning first up at Sandown, defeating the previously undefeated Sprightly Lass. The 30 days between runs is a positive, which should allow her to recover sufficiently from a tough run on the wet ground. She’s also won down the Flemington straight before, which is a big plus. Undoubtedly the toughest race of her career to date, but she’s got the talent to win in what looks a fairly weak field. I think the value could be I’M TELLING YA, with Damian Lane back on board. The last time he rode this horse it was when he won three starts ago down the Flemington straight. I think the wide draw is a positive and he looks a blowout chance. His last two runs have been pretty poor, but he could surprise at $21. FLIPPANT has clearly been targeted at the race first up from the Snowden camp, who must be respected whenever they bring horses to Melbourne. Her form has been very inconsistent in recent preparations, however, and I just find it hard to back her at $4. Her best would definitely win this, and she has won a good race down the straight so I’m wary. TOY BOY has been impressive in winning his past two starts and must be respected, particularly as Epic Moment has franked the form from his last start win by coming out and winning by 3.5L at his next start. Barrier 1 could be a negative though. Respecting TSHAHITSI but feel he may be better over 1400m.
TIP: Miss Wonderland / I’m Telling Ya EW
Race 7
I’ve been on ETAH JAMES all preparation and I don’t think there’s any reason to drop off here. She’s now got five wins from seven starts and even though she was somewhat gifted the lead last start, she was very strong through the line and she won easily in the end. I don’t see the 2800m being a problem and there doesn’t look to be a crazy amount of speed in this race, so she should roll across from barrier 10 and look to employ similar tactics to what she did last start. She gets a 2kg weight swing on BINT EL BEDU from last start as well, so I’m happily on her side again today at $4.40. BINT EL BEDU was certainly the ‘flashing light’ run behind Etah James last start and she’ll relish 2800m. The draw should allow her to settle a fraction closer in the run, but she’ll still be coming from well back. At $6 she’s an attractive price and I’ll be saving on her. I think the value could be PARTHESIA who is ready to do something. She’s been fairly disappointing this preparation, but the money keeps coming for her, which indicates to me she’s not far away from a win. The trip suits her today, as does the draw, and I think she’ll start shorter than $13. IMPERIOR AVIATOR can bounce back from a very disappointing run last time. The blinkers go back on here. LIKE A CAROUSEL, ORMITO and MY PSYCHIATRIST are chances, while DORNIER could be the blowout.
TIP: Etah James / Parthesia EW
Race 8
Another big field and another tough race. SO FAR SOKOOL goes on top. She won at short odds last start, backing up two very good runs in hot form races. Three starts ago she bumped into a smart one in Tamasa, and then ran 2nd to Yulong Xingsheng in Stakes company. This looks another winnable race for her. PEARL DE VERE has won both starts this campaign and should run well again here, though barrier 16 isn’t much help. It also wouldn’t surprise me to see a blowout result here and there’s a couple that are capable of causing one. SENSATION ALLY ran well first up to finish 2nd to Life On The Wire, who came out and won again on Saturday. She then finished last second up, but her second up record is terrible so it was predictable that she’s have a flat run. Her third up record is good, however, with two wins from four starts, so she can bounce back here with a nice claim and a good draw. She’s $26. ALL ABOUT RHYTHM was scratched from a race on Saturday in preference for this. She’s similar in that she always takes a couple of runs before peaking third up. Her second up run was significantly better than her firs tup run, and her third up record is five starts for two wins and a placing. From the good draw she can run a cheeky race at $51. SHARING has the ability go run well here and didn’t have much luck first up. SOHO RUBY is another ready to peak. She has a win over Pedrena to her name last preparation, but the big weight and wide draw may make things difficult. She also might be better over 1600m. HECTOPASCAL can go on with things after winning last start.
TIP: So Far Sokool / Sensation Ally EW / All About Rhythm EW
QUADDIE (wide – skinny)
2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 12 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 12
2, 3, 9, 11, 12 3, 9, 11, 12
1, 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9 4, 6, 8, 9
7, 8, 9, 13, 15, 16 8, 9, 13, 15, 16
$100 = 7% $100 = 20.83%
Tips are provided for entertainment and information purposes, and do not guarantee profit. Always gamble responsibly.
