Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Caulfield on Saturday, January 27th.
We have a nine-race card on a Good 4 track with the rail in the 6m position. We’ve got an early start today so to avoid the sweltering heat predicted later in the day. On-pace is always advantageous at Caulfield.
We have betting tips and comments for every race on the card below. If you haven’t already, take a listen to Episode 19 of the Before You Bet Podcast and see which races at Caulfield and Rosehill Tim is keenest to bet into (skip through the 31min 45secs)! You can also see our Rosehill Racing Tips here!
CAULFIELD RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 9 Sohool
Best Value: Race 8 Royal Rapture EW
Race 1
Good race to kick off with but a tricky one as it’s so competitive. Going to stick with PRETTY PUNK here who gets a very similar run to the one it had last start when winning over this distance at Flemington. Faces a more competitive field here and one with greater numbers, but from barrier 1 it should find the box seat and may just be able to win again at $6.50. GOLDEN MANE has had five starts at this track and distance for a win and four placings. Had every chance behind Pretty Punk last start when beaten 1.1L into 3rd, but the bigger field and better tempo should give it the chance to turn the tables today with Jamie Kah going back on. $7.50. FANATIC has been well supported early. She’s first up from a short let-up but has won a trial since her last win. The concern for mine is that she drops back to the 2000m here, a distance she’s never won at, but she’s worth including in numbers at $13. THE CHAIRMAN put the writing on the wall last start when running home well behind Jacquinot Bay in a race which just had no tempo and therefore didn’t give him much hope. Third up and up to 2000m looks a big positive. Expect him to go forward from barrier 10. NIGHT’S WATCH is favourite but I have some concern about him here. First off, he’ll be a long way back, and he’s had 48 days off since his last race. In that time he’s had a flight to Brisbane and back so just how fit will he be? SAYED is second up and up in distance but I think he’ll still be better third up and up to 2400m. ARTICUS and MASTER OF ARTS not hopeless.
TIP: Pretty Punk / Golden Mane EW
Race 2
Nice little race. It’s a hard race to be confident because we’ve got two-year-olds returning from short let-ups and their grand finals are four weeks away. I’m with OLLIVANDER on top, who we backed when he won on debut over 1100m at this track. It was a solid win and he’s only had seven weeks off, compared to the 10 weeks some others have had. In that time, he’s jumped out super impressively at Flemington, sizzling along out in front and winning hard held by about 6L and in good time. I think the value is BOLD TYPE, who I backed on debut when he finished a disappointing 9th behind Nomothaj at Flemington, despite being well-backed in betting. He’s been gelded since that run and returns here. He had a jumpout at Mornington recently, and showed good speed to lead them up. When he was asked for an effort he dropped them and scored in good style, so we may see the real Bold Type turn up here. $12 looks a nice price to see what he can do. LONG LEAF is undefeated in two career starts, back in October and November of last year. Looks a serious Blue Diamond chance, but may just want a bit further than the 1000m here? Not underestimating him, I think he’s very good. RUN NAAN is also undefeated from two starts. Although they ran at different tracks, it’s worth noting Long Leaf ran a very similar time over 1000m on soft ground at Sandown to what Run Naan did on good ground at Flemington. Big watch on INVINCIBLE LAD for the Snowdens, while ROBE DE FETE is on debut but was held by Run Naan in a recent trial.
TIP: Ollivander / Bold Type EW
Race 3
This is an exciting race and I think we’ll see two very good fillies go around. PURE ELATION looks very smart and she makes her debut today for the Snowden stable. She had two trials in Sydney back in September and October last year, the second of which was very impressive. She was given some time off after that and returned to the jumpouts at Werribee on the 15th of January, where she jumped straight to the lead and bolted in. The form out of that jumpout has already proved strong, with Messerschmitt and Ben Hercules coming out of the trial to run the quinella at Ballarat on Wednesday. She draws well and should put herself right up on speed, and she’ll get a head start on OOHOOD so that’s why I’ve got her on top. OOHOOD wouldn’t surprise anyone if she ran over the top of them, though. She was very impressive on debut without winning, when she bombed the start and motored home to run 2nd to Long Leaf. She’s trialled well leading into today and looks to have a very dynamic turn of foot. From barrier 8 she’ll get back but she’ll be out of trouble and if she’s close enough on the turn she will give this a big shake. They’re really the only two I’m interested in but you always have to be wary of first starters in races like this.
TIP: Pure Elation
Race 4
Good little race with the top two in the market bringing separate Nature Strip form lines to the race. I’ve got HOLY SEAL on top after running 2nd to Nature Strip at Sandown last start. Streets Of Avalon came out of that race and ran 2nd at Moonee Valley last night, so the form is holding up. From barrier 8 she’s likely to slide across and sit outside the leader. She should be there for a long way. SMART COUPE won his first two starts very well before running 3rd in both starts during the Spring – first up behind Sam’s Image and Nature Strip, and second up behind Jorda and I Am Excited. Might be able to slot in one off the rail from barrier 7 and if he finds Holy Seal’s back he may be able to get over the top late. MAGNESIUM ROSE should get a dream run from barrier 5 and her win last start was sound in a reasonable race. CARRIBBEAN PEARL and KATHY’S SPIRIT good roughies to include.
TIP: Holy Seal
Race 5
This looks a nice race for NOTIO, in my opinion, and I think at the $5/$1.80 he represents a decent each way bet. His first up record really isn’t that great so his effort to finish 3rd behind the in-form Sohool at Sandown last start was pretty encouraging. He’s much better suited second up at 1400m here and from barrier 6 he maps to get the sit on the frontrunners. His form last prep in Sydney is good enough to win a race like this and he should be there for a long way. EPIC MOMENT is favourite but I’m relatively keen to take him on. His first two starts back from a spell were good but I thought his last run was only fair. He goes from Michael Dee to Chris Caserta today which is a downgrade, and he may have to sit outside lead. He’s had three starts at the track and has never placed, so he’s definitely short enough for mine. BELLARIA looks a live chance. She really should be undefeated this preparation and now rises to Saturday grade. MAI SHINY CHOICE looks a chance at big odds, third up from a spell and down in weight. NO COMMITMENT is another at double figure odds worth consideration. Never does anything first up but is one from one when second up from a spell and the step up to 1400m helps.
TIP: Notio EW
Race 6
Nice race. SHARING bolted in last start as our value bet in the race, but I’m going to go the other way today and oppose her. She’s a runner that needs luck, and from barrier 9 she’s likely to be out the back and I think Flemington suits her better than Caulfield. Not saying she can’t win, but it’s about assessing prices and at $3.80 I think she’s short enough. JESTER HALO ran 2nd to her at Flemington last start after being trapped three and four-wide without cover the entire race. Two starts ago she actually finished ahead of Sharing, and from that race she gets in much better at the weights today. Much better drawn in barrier 2 today and the only negative I can find is the jockey. I’d be very keen if it were a leading rider. MAMZELLE TESS has come back very well and there’s still a chance she could improve today. She’s won two from three when third up from a spell so off the back of her win last start, she could back it up again today, despite the big weight. DIAPASON will win one soon, but her record isn’t great at 1400m and she probably has a bit to find on Sharing and Jester Halo, but she does draw very well. FLORIDA PEARL should find an easy lead and be there for a long time. Nugent to Williams is a big jockey change and better suited second up here. CHAMPAGNE COCKTAIL looks over the odds at $21 given her great third up record.
TIP: Jester Halo / Mamzelle Tess EW
Race 7
I’ve got ONE HUNDRED PERCENT clearly on top here, even though it has to carry the big weight. Two starts ago this horse beat Prevailing Winds, who then came out and won at Moonee Valley last night, and last start it finished back in the field behind Nature Strip after being held up from the 200m-100m. There’s a few knocks on some of the others so happy to take the $4.50. BARBEQUE comes down from Sydney after winning first up and then running 3rd behind Aqua D’Ivina and Island Missile last start. Island Missile has somewhat franked the form with a 2nd place finish in a decent race at his next start. My problem is Godolphin’s current run – the stable is going terrible. With that said, they did have a horse come down from Sydney and win in Melbourne last weekend (Malaise). CAO CAO looks very short to my eye. Comes out of a decent race but he was well beaten by One Hundred Percent first up and has had four starts at Caulfield for no placings. He hasn’t won since December 2016 when he was a two-year-old. I liked the win of his stablemate RED WHITE AND BLUE on debut, though, and he ran reasonable time. His time for the 1209m was 0.85 seconds quicker than KEDLESTON’s on the same day, so he looks progressive and could be value if he’s improved. Double figure odds for him. One Hundred Percent on top, Barbeque hard to beat, Red White And Blue value.
TIP: One Hundred Percent / Red White And Blue EW
Race 8
Keen to follow my money on DOLLAR FOR DOLLAR here, after he ran 3rd last start when first up from a short let-up. He loomed up to win that race at the 200m but clearly condition and the big weight contributed to him peaking on his run late in the race. He’ll be much better with that run under his belt and with the good draw again today he should get his chance to atone. Backing at $3.70. TSHAHITSI is the logical danger. He’s much better suited today, second up and up to 1400m. He’s got a great second up record and a terrific record at the distance, so looks for a much-improved run from him and expect him to be right in the finish. Outside of those two, there’s two at good odds to include. ROYAL RAPTURE could run a good race fresh here and there’s been a trickle of early money to suggest maybe the stable have targeted this race for him. He’s apparently jumped out well. KINGSGUARD is much better suited second up from a spell here and stays at the 1400m. With the good draw he’s a cheeky chance at $17.
TIP: Dollar For Dollar / Royal Rapture EW
Race 9
Very keen on SOHOOL here following the scratching of Widgee Turf. This horse is flying and is on the quick back-up after winning at Flemington a week ago. Drops heavily in weight with the rise in grade and carries just 52.5kg after the claim for Jordan Turner. He’ll roll forward from barrier 10 and prove hard to beat once again at $5.50/$1.85. MORTON’S FORK comes down from Sydney and he’s knocking on the door to win. Comes out of a couple of hot races, most recently behind the in-form Dreamforce and looks ready to win. I’ve got the same problem with him as I did with Barbeque above. The value here could be PLOT THE COURSE who is third up from a spell. He improved significantly from his first run to his second run, and his third up record is four starts for two wins and a second placing. He can go well at $8. JACQUINOT BAY will run honest as always, and KHUTULUN is another that can improve third up.
TIP: Sohool / Plot The Course EW
QUADDIE
1, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9
1, 2, 3, 6
2, 3, 4, 10
2, 4, 8, 9, 10
$100 = 20.83%
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