Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Caulfield on Saturday, December 16th.
We have a nine-race card on a Good 4 track with the rail out 12m. It’s been a while since we’ve raced at Caulfield and with the rail out so far, it may pay to be up on speed in the early races.
We have betting tips and comments for every race below.
CAULFIELD RACING TIPS
Best Bet: Race 8 Thermal Current EW
Best Value: Race 1 Ollivander EW
Race 1
Tough race to kick things off with nine juveniles on debut in a 13-horse field, so I won’t be betting heavily. There’s four that I’m interested in here and we could even back all four at the prices. ENNIS HILL looks a talented filly for the Lindsay Park team. She won her only public trial and did it in very nice style. The stable obviously have to be highly respected with all their two-year-olds, especially with Williams taking the ride. OLLIVANDER looks a great chance here on the back of a good win in an 800m Flemington jumpout, where she flew the gates and led all the way under little pressure. That tactical speed will come in handy at Caulfield and she should enjoy a good run from barrier 3. $7.50 available. I’m very wary of the Weir runner NATIVE SOLDIER here, who started $8 in the Magic Millions Clockwise race at Ballarat at the end of last month. He could only manage 5th behind impressive winner Le Pomme De Pin, but he gets the blinkers on here and draws for a good run. Absolutely has to be included at $17. ANTHEMOESSA ran 2nd in that same race and given the stable is going very well, it’s a wonder how the horse is a $23 chance here. Any of the four will be a good result but it’s a race of little confidence.
TIP: Ennis Hill / Ollivander EW
Race 2
Terrific race for a BM64. Sticking with WRITTEN IN STONE here who won well first up as a gelding before a horror watch last time out at Ballarat. He settled midfield on that occasion and never got a clear crack at them. He was climbing all over their backs and I think he would have won had he seen daylight in the straight. It’s a very competitive race but he’s worth sticking with. TOOSBUY ran well first up behind what looks to be a good horse. Backed that up last start when winning dominantly at Mornington and he gets the in-form Fred Kersley on board. DON’T BLUSH BABY has won his past two starts. This is a step up in grade from what he’s beaten at Traralgon and Cranbourne, but he’s done it in good style and it’d be no shock to see him measure up from the god draw. TROGIR is one I’ll be keeping very safe at each way odds. He comes across from Adelaide on the back of a luckless last start and despite me not being overly keen on the jockey, the claim does bring him down to a nice weight and he draws well in barrier 4. FORTIFY beat subsequent winner Our Chiquilla first up and should be included, while EL QUESTRO and MR OPTIMISTIC are worth throwing in exotics. Happy to take on SACRED SHAM today at that price. He’s a big tease and if he couldn’t win that race first up, I find it hard to see him winning this.
TIP: Written In Stone / Trogir EW
Race 3
Another very even race with little standing out. I was with HOLY FREEZE last start and I’m very wary of him today, but my query is how far back he may get from barrier 12. If he does go back, he’ll have to be pretty good to round them up with the rail out 12m. I see FOLK SONG going forward from barrier 8, hopefully to lead, and if she does find the rail she could be hard to catch. As a rule of thumb I don’t like backing horses in town that are coming out of races at Cranbourne, but she was dominant there and the horse she beat has since come out and been beaten a nose. She’ll be in front for a long way. MONTASER comes off a solid debut win at Mornington in reasonable time and gets all the favours in the run from barrier 4 here. GRAND CROWN has had little luck in its past two starts and a return to the winner’s stall wouldn’t surprise. KASI FARASI, MACTIER and FULTON STREET next best.
TIP: Folk Song
Race 4
Looks a nice race once again for VINLAND who couldn’t have been more impressive when winning last time out at Sandown. It was a very heavy track that day, so it’s a different ball game today, but he won very easily and could have won by further if he was asked. The form out of the race he contested two starts ago behind the likes of Villermont and Peaceful State looks particularly strong. With that said, it wouldn’t be the greatest surprise to me if ATONE were to turn the tables today. This horse produced a blistering win on debut, and was then given a very, very quiet trial before running 2nd to Vinland. The stable clearly set him to win and pull off a betting plunge in doing so, but Vinland was just too good. Back on to firm ground and with a 3kg weight swing, Atone could test him today. FOUND OUT comes off a strong win in maiden grade last start and can run a place. FUDGED next best.
TIP: Vinland
Race 5
I could get it wrong but to my eye there only looks to be three genuine chances here. MRS GARDENIA clearly goes on top after continuing her good run of form last start at Sandown. She’s now finished in the top two at all five starts this preparation and gets in with a similar weight to last start with Ethan Brown retaining the ride. GUIZOT is anther in good form after backing up a win two starts ago with a solid 2nd placing behind Night’s Watch last start. That form reads well, with Long Time Ago back in 3rd. Long Time Ago was the horse that beat Mrs Gardenia two starts ago. The big query for Guizot is obviously the good ground – it’s win two starts ago was on soft ground and the 2nd placing last start was on heavy ground. It’s never won from six starts on good ground so that’s an obvious concern. SHENANDOAH comes out of a couple of decent races in her past two starts, with Last Week franking the form from her last race. She drops to 52kg here and gets the blinkers back on today so has to be included at $9.
TIP: Mrs Gardenia / Shenandoah EW
Race 6
It’s rare that we see a staying race this competitive. Really not confident but ETAH JAMES has won his past two starts at good odds for us and has runs at 2200m and 200m under his belt leading into this. Should be able to box seat from barrier 1 and with $5.50 available there’s no reason to jump off. I’ll also be on LYCURGUS today at $8. He’s in good form without breaking through for a win, and his last start was better than it looks because he’s significantly better on firm ground than wet ground, so to run 4th on a soft track was a good effort. He’s got a good record at the track and distance, he’ll go forward and be in it for a long way. We were on BINT EL BEDU last start when she won nicely over 2000m at Cranbourne. Draws barrier 13 today so will need to come from a long way off them – that’s my biggest concern along with the fact she failed over 2400m last prep. PRINCE OF PAGODA won well over 2400m at Bendigo last time out and looks capable of measuring up, while SERENADE THE STARS gets out to 2400m for the first time since bolting in under a big weight at Kempton in the UK. His first up run indicated he was in for a good prep, and he now gets out to a distance that really suits him. Drops 4kg from a 1.3L defeat to Bint El Bedu last start, draws well and Williams takes the ride. Should be a big player today. PATHESIA is another that gets out to her preferred trip today after three runs back from a spell. Her record indicates she needs a few runs back before she hits her straps so I’d expect her to improve sharply here.
TIP: Etah James / Lycurgus EW
Race 7
OZI CHOICE goes on top but nearly by default. He’s been continually backed in his past few starts, indicating a win in town was near, but the plunges just kept going astray until Weir sent him to Adelaide for an easy kill last start. He’ll go forward from barrier 13 and with just 52.5kg on his back he’s undoubtedly the one they have to beat. $3.60 looks about right. MUBAKKIR could be the one at an each way price to test him. He’s ready to win now after three runs back from a spell. He wasn’t beaten all that far last start and Williams going on today catches the eye. The early betting suggests THELBURG is ready to do something too. He was luckless first up, but the run suggested he’d come back well, but the betting before the jump last start told you all you needed to know and he ran accordingly. He drops to 51kg here and he’s been backed early, so it’d be no shock to see him bounce back, but I can’t have him stepping up from 1000m to 1440m. URBAN RULER ended up in the wrong part of a bog track last start at Sandown. I would forgive him for that and suggest he can bounce back.
TIP: Ozi Choice / Mubakkir EW
Race 8
Keen on a decent each way bet on THERMAL CURRENT here. This horse returned with a great first up run behind Jungle Edge on a wet track at Sandown, and he has four wins from eight starts when second up from a spell. Damian Lane takes the ride for Darren Weir, which indicates he’s his top seed in the race in my opinion. Looks capable of a big show here and $6 is a good each way price. MONOLO BLAHNIQ is another that returned from a spell in good order. He ran a narrow 2nd to Club Tropicana at Sandown, which was the first time he raced as a gelding. He drops significantly in weight from that run, draws well and Craig Williams takes over, so he’s a major player at $6.50. No real knock on CRYSTAL DREAMER but the 1100m has tended to test him out. He’ll go forward from the wide gate and gets a nice claim for Steph Thornton but the last 100m will test. GOT THE GOSS and OBERLAND next best.
TIP: Thermal Current EW
Race 9
The Ellerton and Zahra stable look to have a strong hand here with two leading hopes. Sticking with CLUB TROPICANA here who bumped into the smart Written In Stone first up but has since won two on the trot. Two starts ago she led in a small field but showed versatility when coming from off the pace last start, so from barrier 1 it will be interesting to see where she ends up. CREATIVITY is their second horse in the race with Damian Lane on board. She returned with a good run at Ballarat first up, finishing 2nd behind Via Balciano. Should improve from that run and draws nicely in barrier 4 so she should be a major player with even luck. Very keen to back ESSENCE OF TERROR each way at $13. Ran well for 2nd first up from a spell and didn’t have a whole lot of luck last start. Her second up record is pretty ordinary but she peaks third up so despite the wide draw, I think she’s a really good each way chance. STRYKINGLEE draws well and gets the blinkers on for the first time today, and IF NOT NOW WHEN trialled enormously leading into her first up run today.
TIP: Club Tropicana / Essence Of Terror EW
QUADDIE
5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 12
3, 5, 8, 9, 10
1, 2, 8, 13
8, 10, 11, 12, 13
$100 = 16.66%
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