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AFL Daily Fantasy Tips 2024: Round 4 Adelaide vs Melbourne

April 3rd 2024, 10:40pm, By: Jesse Penfold

AFL Fantasy Tips

The AFL heads to Adelaide this week for Gather Round. Like last year, all games of this round four of the 2024 AFL Premiership Season will be played in South Australia and we get things underway with the Adelaide Crows against the Melbourne Demons this Thursday night at Adelaide Oval. The Crows started this season with finals aspirations are narrowly missing the eight in 2023, but things have not gone to plan dropping all of their first three games. They will be desperate to get their first win back at home for Gather Round. It will not be easy, however, with Melbourne looking every bit of a premiership contender at 3 and zip and potentially the best team in the league.

Draftstars continue to offer massive prize pools with the Thursday night main being worth $70,000 along with their usual variety of alternate contests:

  • AFL $70,000+ Crows vs Demons
  • AFL $5,000+ Crows vs Demons High Roller ($150 Entry)
  • AFL $2,000+ Crows vs Demons Fiver
  • AFL $3,000+ Crows vs Demons Mini ($2 Entry)

The AFL Star contest is back for 2024 and Draftstars are offering the biggest prize pool in Australian DFS history with a $1 million guaranteed final with $250,000 top prize! There are qualifiers and satellites running for every AFL match, while there will also be a sprinkling of qualifiers across other sports such as NRL and NBA.

Meanwhile the 1000 AFL Target contests are set to return to Draftstars for the first time since 2018. Enter the contest and hit the 1000-point barrier with your team to scoop the jackpot!

Draftstars AFL Star

 

Betting Markets

Adelaide ($2.34) vs Melbourne ($1.58) Odds thanks to PlayUp
Points: 168.5
Line: Melbourne -8.5

If you’re looking to bet on the AFL this season, then you can bet with PlayUp by using the same account that you have at Draftstars. PlayUp are Australian owned and offer an strong range of AFL betting markets and offers, including Same Game Multis.

Additionally, we have a full Crows vs Demons Betting Preview, where we provide our best bet for the game as well as a great value Same Game Multi!

PlayUp

 

Weather

Forecast is 22 degrees and mostly sunny with no forecast for rain. Perfect football conditions.

 

Where to Attack?

Melbourne continue their trend from last year of conceding points to backs, although it is the general defenders that are seeing the increase in points rather than the designated kicker. Over the last five games (primarily this season), the Demons have conceded over 18 points per game above league average to backs, the highest mark in the league.

Adelaide during that same stretch, on the other hand, have been getting absolutely killed by inside midfielders. They are giving up over 13 points per game above league average to the position and this has been one of their key reasons for the poor start.

Game Script – Adelaide backs, Melbourne inside midfielders and forwards

 

VALUE PLAYS

Luke Nankervis ($8,780) / Patrick Parnell ($7,250)

Both youngsters have the call up for their first game of the season. Keep an eye on the sub announcement as the game approaches, however both make for solid value options on this slate if they are starting the game. Nankervis has had high wraps with the Crows for a while now and he was an absolute standout in the SANFL in week one with 26 disposals and over 100 fantasy points. Parnell also excelled in the SANFL last week with 20 disposals and 88 fantasy points.

Both players roles are typically coming off the half back, which as noted above is an elite matchup against Melbourne and is always the easiest role for players to score especially younger players without a lot of senior footy exposure.

Kade Chandler ($8,810) makes for an elite value option from the Demons in single game slates. He has shown on numerous occasions going back to last season that he has high upside capability and has already posted two scores this season of 81 points and 75 points. Both would be strong returns at this price point in a single game contest. With Melbourne being favourites I love stacking up the Demons forward line and Chandler also pushes up the ground to obtain greater scoring opportunities.

 

MID PRICED PLAYS

Tom Sparrow ($10,380) has been receiving more centre bounce attendances this season, with two games over 50%. He is worth the risk on a single game slate where finding mid priced plays is limited as he offers up to a 100 point ceiling in the right role. This is an elite matchup for Melbourne midfielders as noted above with the Crows giving up over 13 points per game above league average to the position over the last 5 games, which brings us to our premium play…

 

PREMIUM PLAYS

Clayton Oliver ($16,190) has yet to really unleash this season with just one game over 100 points. However, with four games under his belt now he should be match fit and ready to hit his straps after an controversial preseason. At full fitness he is still the Demons number one inside midfielder and averaged a massive 120 points per game in 2023. This is the best matchup in the league for him and I expect him to be the top scoring player on the slate, which would be a great value bet at $5.50.

 

Suggested Draftstars Lineup

Draftstars Lineup

 

Cheat Sheet

AFL Projections Data – Crows vs Demons - Downloadable File (.xlsx)

Cheat Sheet

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