AFL Round 4 is Gather Round and it all kicks off on Thursday night with the Adelaide Crows taking on the Melbourne Demons at Adelaide Oval. The Crows are in desperate need of a win after their 0-3 start but it certainly won’t be easy against the plucky Demons (2-1). We preview the clash and provide our best bet and Same Game Multi!
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2024 AFL Round 4 Preview & Betting Tips
Adelaide vs Melbourne
Thursday 7:40pm AEDT, April 4th, Adelaide Oval
Arguably the team under the most pressure to perform this weekend, Adelaide will host the first match of Gather Round in South Australia. The Crows were already under pressure prior to last weekend’s trip to Perth, but a 34-69 loss to the Dockers only heightened the tension.
The Crows total of 34 last weekend is their lowest score in any game since Round 17 2021, which is a big concern considering they had the second most potent offence in the league a season ago with an average of 95.4 points per game – they’re averaging only 55 per game through three rounds in 2024.
As a result of their horrible start to the season, the Crows have opted to make five changes at the selection table, with three of them being unforced. Jordan Butts is an import inclusion in defence, while Sam Berry will get his chance to make amends for a poor outing in Round 2. Perhaps the biggest omission is Luke Pedlar, although his play through three weeks has been horrible.
In contrast, Melbourne head into Gather Round with a head full of steam after securing three wins in a row since their Opening Round defeat to the Swans. The Demons will be playing their second straight game at Adelaide Oval after securing a win at the venue last weekend against the Power by seven points (96-89).
The Demons have faced plenty of adversity in the early portion of the season which makes their current three-game win streak all the more impressive. They showed immense resilience against the Power last weekend to find a way to win despite being smashed by 21 in the inside 50 count (45-66).
In more good news for the Demons, 2x All-Australian defender Steven May is set to return to the lineup after missing last game with bruising to his ribs. He will slot straight back into defence at the expense of Marty Hore who will miss the next month with a thumb injury.
Match prediction: It’s an intriguing contest we have on our hands here to begin Gather Round, as the Crows are on a three-game losing streak whereas the Demons have won their last three. Of course, the Demons are the deserving favourites despite being the travelling side, simply due to the higher level of play and the resilience they’ve shown so far in 2024. However, it’s still too early to completely write off the Crows and if they can hit their straps and find similar form to what they consistently displayed at home last season, then they’re certainly a winning chance.
Instead, I believe there’s value in taking the unders in the total points market which is sitting at 169.5 at the time of writing. We mentioned above that the Crows are struggling to tick the scoreboard over this season with an average of only 55 points per game, and May back for the Demons only makes it all the more difficult. On the flip side, the Demons defended admirably last weekend despite a barrage of inside 50s from the Power, and they’ve conceded less than 90 points in all four of their matches to date.
Under 169.5 Points
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Kysaiah Pickett 2+ Goals – Was one of the best last time these sides met and has made a bright start to this season with six goals in three games. Should get another favourable matchup here.
Josh Rachele 1+ Goals – Hasn’t been great to start the year but still has four goals in three games. He’ll be looking to make a big impact on Thursday night and should hit the scoreboard at least once.
Jordan Dawson 25+ Disposals – Continues to find plenty of the ball despite his efficiency being well down. 26+ disposals in all three games so far and will be trying to lead from the front.
Clayton Oliver 25+ Disposals – Hasn’t missed a beat in his return this season and is coming off 25 touches last weekend. He should be able to notch at least that number again here.
SGM Odds: $4.50 at BoomBet
