Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for the Group 1 William Reid Stakes at Moonee Valley on Friday, March 22nd.
10 runners are set to line up over the 1200m, with the track rated a Good 4 and the rail in the true position.
Check out our runner-by-runner preview of the race below!
WILLIAM REID STAKES PREVIEW & BETTING TIPS
Speed Map
Looks an intriguing speed map and the most interest is around the short-priced favourite Sunlight, who draws the widest barrier. Her biggest issue here is the speed drawn inside her, with Battle Hero certain to kick up on the rail, Written By likely to go forward in an attempt to keep Sunlight posted three-wide, and even Dothraki is capable of landing right up on speed. That leaves Sunlight likely to be caught wide without cover, unless they decide to really press on or try to take a sit. I think they'll jump and try to land outside the leader, but it looks risky on paper. Fell Swoop led in his first four starts this preparation, before taking a sit behind the leaders in the Oakleigh Plate last start. He's another that could press forward and he's also drawn inside Sunlight. I think the more realistic outcome is him letting the speed go and trying to slot in just behind them. Embrace Me came from last to win the Typhoon Tracy Stakes at this track and distance last start. She drew barrier 12 on that occasion but draws 3 here. She'll possibly land ahead of Ellicazoom but she'll be well off the leaders. Spright and Voodoo Lad will be at the back of the field letting it all unfold.
Runner-by-runner analysis
Fell Swoop: Returned this preparation as somewhat of a reinvigorated horse. His first four runs this time in were all good, one of which was his first win in two-and-a-half years. He ran 2nd to Whispering Brook at this track and distance two starts ago, beaten 0.75L and was then beaten 2.5L in the Oakleigh Plate last start. The draw is slightly awkward for him but his record at this track and distance is terrific, with a win and two 2nds from three starts. One of those 2nds was a nose defeat in a Group 1. Each way.
Voodoo Lad: Hasn't quite returned the same horse since his Group 1 win in the Winterbottom Stakes three starts back. He's been outclassed in his last two runs and the stable have thrown the blinkers on him for the first time in his career for this. A couple of things in his favour is his record at the track and distance, where he has two wins from three starts, and the hot tempo on paper. He'll be letting it all unfold in front of him and we know on his day he has a booming finish.
Dothraki: Outclassed by Sunlight in the Newmarket Handicap last start and actually gets in worse at the weights today from that run against her. He won't be able to lead here so expect him to take a sit from barrier 4 with Damian Lane on board, who loves finding cover. The barrier gives him his chance to run his usual honest race but he's a level below the best horses in this race.
Battle Hero: Used his inside gate and was ridden aggressively last week in the Abell Stakes, which brought about an improved performance. He fought on well to run 2nd behind Mystyko on that occasion but this is a huge step up in grade compared to that. He'll be rock-hard fit now and comes into this on the quick back-up; expect him to hunt up on the inside and try to hold the lead on the rail. There's plenty of speed on paper here so he won't be able to control the race to suit himself, which is what he'd need to try and measure up in this sort of class. Looks tested.
Spright: Becoming a big tease is Spright and she's running out of chances. She's got a booming finish on her and has proven she's capable of measuring up in this sort of grade, but she just keeps leaving her run a touch too late. She ran the best final splits in the Oakleigh Plate first up, despite not having a lot of room, and then ran home strongly again in Sydney last start, but once again found one too good. She ran huge at this track and distance in the Moir Stakes last preparation, finishing 3rd behind Viddora and Brave Smash as a $41 chance. She's going to get the race set up for her here with the tempo expected, so look for her flashing home late.
Ellicazoom: Looks outclassed on recent efforts and is going to need some luck from barrier 1 with her racing pattern. She's likely to be last on the rail and she might have runners falling back in her lap. Will need luck in the straight if that's the case, but even so, she's struggling to reproduce the kind of form she showed in her first couple of starts for this stable.
Written By: I wonder how much longer we'll see this guy at the races. A stud career is beckoning and like many Blue Diamond winners, he's somewhat struggled to go on with it as a three-year-old. He was beaten by Bons Away first up and then outclassed in the Lightning Stakes last start. This is an easier race than that but I don't think he can beat Sunlight or Shoals. He should be peaking third up from a spell but he's unlikely to get the race run to suit him. He'll cop plenty of pressure up front and that will likely find him out.
Sunlight: With Shoals scratched from the race, I'd expect her to start close to $1.40 here. She does have one or two things against her, but she's by far and away the best horse in this race. Drawn the widest in barrier 11 but will come into 9 with the scratching of Champagne Cuddles and Shoals. She's sped out to lead in both starts this preparation and was simply too quick for them in the Newmarket last start, so I doubt they're going to change those tactics here. Her only start at this track was in the Manikato Stakes last year, where she drew barrier 3, jumped awkwardly, settled midfield and never got a crack at them. That was the one and only time in her career that she's missed a place. There's a chance she pings the lids and jumps to the front here, in which case the race is probably all over, but there's also the chance she gets posted three-wide outside the likes of Battle Hero and Written By, especially if she jumps slowly. It's going to be a hot speed and she might just be brought undone by that here. But with even luck, she wins.
Embrace Me: Really keen to see how she measures up here. She was a super-impressive winner of the G3 Typhoon Tracy Stakes at huge odds last start, flashing home in the final 200m to win by 1.75L going away. Two horses have already come out of that race and won so the form has stood up and her final 200m was the fastest of the entire meeting last start. This is certainly throwing her right in the deep end at just her 10th career start but she's obviously got plenty of talent and it wouldn't shock me to see her run a big race here. The draw is slightly awkward and she'll need plenty of luck again. Interesting runner.
Selections
I was very keen on Shoals originally, but with her out of the race it really does look at the mercy of Sunlight. With that said, I think there's a very real risk Sunlight could be brought undone by the speed runners drawn inside her keeping her out three-wide. In any case, there looks to be a hot tempo on up front and that could set it up for something coming over the top late. I think the place price about Spright ($2.25) looks very reasonable. She'll be out the back and she always finishes hard. She flew home in both the Moir and the Manikato last preparation, so she's clearly capable at this level. Keen to see how Embrace Me measures up in this grade after her super last-start win, while Voodoo lad and Fell Swoop could be thereabouts. Can't see Written By winning. Going to have a bet on Spright to place.
1st SUNLIGHT
2nd Spright
3rd Embrace Me
4th Fell Swoop
