The third game on the Saturday football slate sees Hawthorn taking on Melbourne at the MCG. It’s a major mismatch between second and eighteenth on the ladder, can the Hawks cause a boilover and drag themselves off the bottom of the ladder?
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AFL Round 9 Preview & Betting Tips
Hawthorn vs Melbourne
Saturday 4:35pm AEST, May 13th, MCG
After three weeks of competitive performances, the Hawks dished up a stinker against Fremantle last week in a 69 point defeat. Hawthorn trailed for the entirety of the game, as they conceded their fourth 100+ score in the opening eight weeks of the season.
Melbourne were far from their best, but they managed to scrape over the line in a five point victory against the Suns. A Darcy McPherson miss in the final 30 seconds gave the Demons the four points.
Melbourne successfully appealed Jacob Van Rooyen’s two game suspension, meaning the young forward will line up for the Dees on Saturday afternoon. Michael Hibberd and Charlie Spargo return to line up, with James Jordan and Daniel Turner being omitted. Last week’s sub James Harmes hasn’t retained his spot in the squad.
It’s been a big week at selection for Hawthorn, making five changes. Fergus Greene (omitted), Jack Scrimshaw (omitted), Tyler Brockman (suspension), Connor Macdonald (illness), Josh Ward (foot), Lachlan Bramble (substitute) are all out, however the Hawks have some big inclusions. Luke Bruest, Changkuoth Jiath, Cameron Mackenzie, James Blanck and Sam Butler come into the 22.
Melbourne’s statistical profile is excellent, ranking 2nd in points per game, 1st for inside 50’s and 5th for disposals. Melbourne have been able to dominate territory, however their scoring output has vastly improved this season, after struggling in the front half in 2022.
Hawthorn are at a near polar opposite profile, ranking 18th in points per game, 17th for inside 50’s and 16th for contested possessions. The Hawks looked like they were making strides defensively, but it was probably more of a false image given the inaccuracy that Adelaide and GWS kicked against them.
Melbourne’s system and talent mean this game could get ugly, very quickly for the Hawks. With the gap in quality between the two midfields, the ball is going to be living in the Demons front half, and Hawthorn simply won’t be able to contain Melbourne.
Melbourne have enjoyed playing against Hawthorn, with five wins and a draw from their last six meetings against the Hawks.
Although Melbourne are more than capable of a huge win in this clash, the smarter market to look at in this clash is the total points. Every game Melbourne has played in has hit over 175 points, with an average total points of 185 across their eight games. In Hawthorn’s two games at the MCG this season the total points has been 189 and 172.
Total Points Over 171.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Same Game Multi
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Clayton Oliver 30+ Disposals: Clayton Oliver is having another dominant season, averaging 33 disposals per game. Oliver has hit the 30 disposal mark in six of his eight games this season, and has loved playing against the Hawks. Oliver has had returns of 33, 35, 30, 29 and 30 disposals in his last five games against Hawthorn, his only game under 30 disposals, was in shortened quarters in 2020.
Christian Petracca 25+ Disposals: Like his running partner Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca is having an outstanding season. Petracca is averaging 28 disposals per game and has reached the 25 disposal mark in seven of his eight games this season. Petracca has recorded 31 and 33 disposals from his last two games against the Hawks, and is set for another big day out against Hawthorn.
Kade Chandler Anytime Goalscorer: After spending years plying his trade in the VFL, Kade Chandler has finally got his opportunity in the senior team at Melbourne and is relishing his chance. Chandler has played every game this season, kicking a goal in all eight games he’s played this season, including three games with three goals.
Same Game Multi Odds: $3.40
