With the Knights’ season hanging by a thread, things don’t get any easier as they head north to Suncorp Stadium to take on the Dolphins, who currently occupy third spot on the ladder. With the extended loss of Kalyn Ponga, the Knights will be doing very well to keep this one close.
Below, we will dissect the matchup, supply our Best Bet, and suggest a Same Game Multi. Be sure to head over to our NRL Tips page regularly, as we preview every single game all season long, for free!
Also, if you’re new to sports betting or betting on the NRL, check out the following articles to help build your knowledge:
- Guide to Betting on the NRL
- Where to Bet on the NRL
- Factors to Consider When Betting on the NRL
2024 NRL Round 8 Preview & Betting Tips
The Dolphins vs Newcastle Knights
Suncorp Stadium, Sunday 28th April, 2:00pm (AEST)
Last Week
The Dolphins are coming off a tremendous performance last week, destroying the Eels in Darwin 44-16. And yet, I’m not sure how much of this result sits at the feet of the Dolphins, and how much is down to how poor the Eels were. They can use the excuse of the heat and humidity all they like, the fact of the matter is the Eels didn’t show up to play, and as can be expected of any Wayne Bennett-led team, the Dolphins did show up. If the Dolphins once again show up to play at home this weekend, another big result could be on the agenda.
Whilst the Dolphins did everything right last week, the Knights seemed to do everything wrong. There has been much conjecture over whether they should have played Kalyn Ponga, but that isn’t my concern now, with the big issue being where to from here for the Knights. The Knights were never in the hunt last week, as they went down 36-12 to the Bulldogs, trailing 36-6 before a last-minute Bradman Best try made the scoreline a little more respectable. In a major concern, the Knights can’t blame the loss of Ponga on the Bulldogs dominating the middle of the park, and with the Knights’ forward pack playing like one of the worst in the league, conceding the most post contact metres, and third most metres in the NRL, it’s hard to see how the Knights make the finals in 2024.
Match Preview
These teams met twice last season, with the Dolphins smashing the Knights in round 3 at McDonald Jones Stadium, 36-20. The Dolphins closed 5.5-point favourites for the game, and interestingly the Knights were without Kalyn Ponga for the game. In round 23, the Knights got their revenge 30-28, as the teams played in Perth. The Knights closed massive 10.5-point favourites in the game, meaning the Dolphins easily covered both games, and both games went way over the totals.
This game has seen the biggest change to the line, with the obvious reason being the loss of Kalyn Ponga. The number opened with the Knights small 1.5-point favourites prior to the games last week, to where we now sit at as the Dolphins as 6.5-point favourites. This would signify the market believes Ponga is worth around 8 points to the spread, which is probably a little bit much, however there was probably a slight upgrade to the Dolphins after their performance last week. It’s very difficult to get to this number, but at the same time I find I very difficult to bet on the Knights here. I think this is a game to steer clear of for the most part, and if you’re going to bet, make it small.
As for the total, it opened 44.5, and now sits at 45.5. I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see this bump up to 46.5/47. My numbers would lean towards the under here, with the results last season more than likely pushing this number up. The Knights, without Ponga, have a team total of 18.5, and this is where I believe we can attack. The Dolphins defence has shown to be about league average, however it is in the forwards and play the ball where they have struggled. The Knights forwards must step up here, and if they can’t, I don’t see the Knights scoring 4 tries.
Knights (team total) under 18.5
$1.87 (1 Unit)
Same Game Multi
Dolphins ML – As above, the Dolphins should win this comfortably at home, against a Ponga-less Knights.
J Bostock (1+ try) – This kid just keeps scoring tries, and this week comes up against a right-side Knights defence that has struggled to stop points.
E Tuala (1+ try) – Much like Bostock above, Tuala gets to run at the weaker left edge of the Dolphins. Gagai is exceptionally good at getting his winger into space, so expect Tuala to have his chances on Sunday.
SGM Odds: $5.34 at Neds
