Understanding the term “Over-Round”, and how Australian sportsbooks make money, is a crucial element to becoming a successful sports betting punter.
Over-Round is what guarantees sportsbooks profit in the long run. In a nut shell, it’s the margin that they build into pricing, however it may not always be obvious when you look at a betting market. Here’s how it works.
Imagine a sporting event with two teams, let’s say it’s Richmond against Melbourne in the AFL. Sports traders, whether they work for a bookmaker or they are professional punters, might estimate that Richmond will win this match two out of every three times, or 66.6%. Now to frame that percentage as betting odds, it equates to $1.50, since 1 divided by 1.50 is 66.6%. So that means that Melbourne will win 33.3% of the time, which is 1 in 3 times, or betting odds of $3.00.
So we’ve worked out a fair betting market is Richmond $1.50 and Melbourne at $3.00. This is a fair market because when you add 66.6% and 33.3% together, you get 100%. So the “Over-Round” is 100%. Punters are getting paid out true odds that the event occurs, so if the markets were always like this, neither punter nor bookmaker will actually make any money over the long term.
The way sportsbooks make money is to tweak the odds slightly in their favour. For the above scenario, they might offer Richmond at $1.43 and Melbourne at $2.70. Here’s how that tips the scales in their favour:
Richmond $1.50 (66.6%)
Melbourne $3.00 (33.33%)
Richmond $1.43 (70%)
Melbourne $2.70 (37%)
So if the Over-Round is more than 100%, then the sportsbook know they will ALWAYS make a profit, regardless of the result, as long as punters back each team in proportion to their true chance of winning. Of course punters don’t always do that, so that’s why sportsbooks will adjust odds depending on the weight of money they’ve received on a certain side of the book. This helps them to balance their books and stay in profit.
Sportsbooks ALWAYS have an Over-Round greater than 100% on EVERY betting market.
So if the sportsbooks are guaranteed to profit, how can punters actually win money?
Sharp punters will look for situations where they think the sportsbook sports traders have estimated the odds incorrectly, and are offering value for an event to occur.
The other way is to ensure that you are getting the best odds possible for your bet, and most of the time, that’s going to be by using the Betfair Exchange.
You see, Betfair isn’t like a regular sportsbook. They do not factor Over-Round into their prices. Because Betfair is a peer-to-peer betting exchange, the odds are set by other punters according to what they think the true odds are. The Betfair Exchange markets are ALWAYS going to be close to true odds of the event which gives punters the best price possible.
Betfair doesn’t make its money through Over-Round. Instead, Betfair charge a commission of between 5-10% on winnings, depending on the sporting or racing code. This will often provide a better value bet for punters than traditional sportsbooks who may set markets with horrible Over-Round of 120% or even more.
It’s important for all punters, whether new or experienced, to be able to spot Over-Round in a betting market and understand when you are getting poor odds. Look for the value on the Betfair Exchange before you place your next bet.
The second match of the final day triple header in BBL10 will see the Melbourne Renegades take on the Hobart Hurricanes. As usual, we have you covered with a full preview and betting tips for the clash including player props courtesy of Billy Bestford here read more
It was an interesting weekend of FA Cup fixtures as well as a couple of make-up games in the EPL but we are back to regular scheduling now, with a whole round of games set to take place this week. We have you covered with a preview and betting tips for some of the key matchups in Matchweek 20 here. read more
The final day of the BBL10 home and away season is here as the Heat and Scorchers kick off a triple header from the Adelaide Oval. As usual, Jack Tobin has you covered with a full preview and betting tips for the clash here read more
The final day of the BBL10 season is upon us! A massive triple header of games will round out the season and the third and final of those games is an absolute blockbuster as the two Grand Finalists from last year, the Stars and Sixers, do battle from the MCG! read more
The best Australian sports betting sites ensure safe and successful online betting for punters. Here's our list of the best betting options in Australia. read more
Julian Vallance from Sportsbet takes us through some of the key factors which he uses with pricing upcoming horse races such as performance ratings. Check out his video from Sportsbet here. read more
Over-Round is an important concept for both punters and sportsbooks. It's how Australian sportsbooks make money! All punters should understand over-round, how to spot it, and how to find better value on the Betfair Exchange. read more
Ever wondered why you can get such great odds at Betfair in comparison to other online bookmakers? We break down why that is the case and why Betfair isn't just for professional punters here read more
The countdown is on until the BBL10 season officially gets underway! We ranked our BBL10 top 5 batsmen to watch earlier in the week, and today we are doing the same for bowlers! Check out our BBL10 top 5 bowlers to watch, courtesy of Mr.Cricket, here. read more
The BBL10 squads are pretty much finalised and the season is not far away! We've taken a look at the squads for each team, and put together our predicted starting lineups taking into consideration availability of Australian national players and the playing schedule of the international recruits. Check out our BBL10 team lineups here! read more
The Big Bash League season is just around the corner! In the lead up to BBL10, we will be taking a look at some of the key players who will be hoping to lead their teams to victory! Today, we go through the top five batsmen to watch in BBL10 read more
The team at Palmerbet take a look at three key chances for the 2020 Melbourne Cup as punters look to take advantage of the Palmerbet Price Push among 10+ other promos available for Palmerbet customers for the "Race That Stops The Nation" on Tuesday. read more