Monday Night Football delivers a genuine contender for Game of the Year in Week 5, as the Los Angeles Rams host the Buffalo Bills at SoFi Stadium. The last meeting between these teams certainly lived up to that billing.
Back in Week 14 of the 2024 season, Los Angeles survived an incredible 44-42 shootout, with the teams combining for 902 yards of offense. Josh Allen became the first quarterback in NFL history to throw three touchdown passes and rush for three more in the same game, while Puka Nacua produced 178 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns for the Rams.
Two years later, another track meet looks very possible. Buffalo enters at 3-1 and has scored 127 points through four games, the most in football. The Rams are only 2–2, but their record doesn't really reflect the ceiling of this offense. Matthew Stafford has Puka Nacua and Davante Adams at receiver, Kyren Williams has taken control of the backfield again, and Sean McVay has more than enough weapons to attack a Buffalo defence that has shown vulnerabilities through the opening month.
The look-ahead total was 51.5, before reopening around 52.5 and being bet to 53.5. We have unquestionably missed the best number, but I still prefer the over to either side of the spread.
This game has points written all over it.
Check out our NFL tips below, and why not sign up to a new betting site to place your bets this weekend!
NFL 2026-27 Week 4: Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams Betting Tips
Last Week Recap
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams improved to 2-2 with an important 24-20 road victory over Philadelphia, fighting back from a 10-point deficit to score the final 16 points of the game.
It wasn't always pretty. Stafford threw two interceptions; Los Angeles missed a field goal, and the offense struggled badly for stretches. But when the Rams needed to move the football late, they did exactly that.
Kyren Williams was the standout. Williams rushed 16 times for 80 yards and two touchdowns, while also catching 10 passes for 67 yards. His second rushing touchdown with just over a minute remaining completed the comeback and reinforced that the backfield hierarchy has shifted firmly back towards him.
That usage is significant entering this matchup. Williams now leads the Rams with 294 rushing yards at 5.4 yards per carry, while his receiving role gives McVay another way to keep him involved regardless of game script.
Puka Nacua also returned from a two-game absence and immediately reminded everyone of his importance, catching nine passes for 125 yards. Davante Adams had a much quieter afternoon, finishing with only four catches for 32 yards after producing 332 yards across the previous two games.
The Rams offense hasn't completely clicked yet. That may be exactly why this matchup is dangerous.
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo suffered its first defeat of the season in Week 4, losing 29-26 at home to New England.
The Bills held a 26-21 lead late in the fourth quarter before Drake Maye led the Patriots on a go-ahead touchdown drive. Buffalo then had one final opportunity to answer, but Allen threw an interception into double coverage and New England ran out the clock.
The offense wasn't terrible, but it wasn't as clean as the group we saw over the opening fortnight.
Allen still produced a rushing touchdown and found Keon Coleman for a 34-yard score in the fourth quarter, while Coleman finished with six catches for 116 yards.
James Cook remained effective on the ground, rushing 12 times for 75 yards and a touchdown, but Buffalo probably moved away from him too quickly.
The greater concern came defensively. New England accumulated 405 total yards, while Buffalo's depleted secondary struggled to contain explosive plays. The Bills have now allowed 1,489 yards through four games, including 1,025 through the air.
That's not ideal preparation for Stafford, Nacua and Adams.
Matchup Breakdown
I lean Los Angeles -3.5, but I don't love the current number.
The Rams opened around -2.5, and that would have been significantly more attractive.
At -3.5, we are now laying through the most important number in NFL betting, and this matchup has every chance of coming down to whoever possesses the football last.
Buffalo's offense is too dangerous to ever feel particularly comfortable laying more than a field goal against Allen. At the same time, there are reasons to prefer Los Angeles.
The Bills secondary has struggled, injuries continue to create issues defensively, and the Rams have perhaps the best receiving duo Buffalo have faced this season. Stafford has also shown he can attack this defence; he threw for 320 yards and two touchdowns in their 2024 meeting.
Los Angeles are also back home after three consecutive road games, while Buffalo now travels across the country following an emotional divisional defeat.
I make the Rams the slightly more likely winner. I'm just not interested enough at -3.5 to make it an official play.
Verdict: Rams -3.5 is a lean. At -2.5 it would have been a bet.
Total Points Market
This is the strongest position on the game. Yes, we've missed the best of the number. The look-ahead was 51.5. It reopened around 52.5. Now we're being asked to take over 53.5.
Normally that sort of movement would make me reconsider, but I still think this game can comfortably get into the 60s.
Buffalo have scored 36, 41, 24 and 26 points through four games.
Even during a relatively disappointing offensive performance against New England, the Bills still scored 26.
Then there is Los Angeles. The Rams haven't consistently turned their yardage into points yet, but the underlying offensive numbers are strong. Through four games they have accumulated 1,668 total yards, averaging 5.9 yards per play.
This matchup also encourages aggression from both coaches. Neither Sean McVay nor Joe Brady is likely to believe field goals will be enough. Allen's ability to create touchdowns from broken plays makes Buffalo incredibly difficult to contain for four quarters, while Stafford has Nacua, Adams and Williams against a defence that has already allowed 10 passing touchdowns.
And we already know what these teams can produce against one another. The 2024 meeting finished with 86 points. We don't need another 44-42 classic.
Something around 31-27 will do just fine.
Over 53.5 Points
$1.88 (2 Units)
Key Players & Prop Markets
Kyren Williams - 80+ Rushing Yards
Williams' recent usage makes this the first prop I want.
He hit exactly 80 rushing yards on 16 carries last week, but perhaps more importantly, Blake Corum's role has begun to shrink while Williams has re-established himself as the clear centrepiece of the Rams backfield.
The matchup works. Buffalo have allowed 124, 66, 131 and 143 rushing yards across their opening four games, meaning three of their four opponents have cleared 120 yards on the ground.
Williams also hurt Buffalo in the previous meeting, rushing 29 times for 87 yards and two touchdowns.
If Los Angeles are playing from ahead as the spread suggests, he should see plenty of second-half work.
Kyren Williams - 80+ Rushing Yards
$2.35 (1 Unit)
Puka Nacua - 100+ Receiving Yards
We're keeping the square bets coming. Nacua returned last week and immediately caught nine passes for 125 yards. Now he faces the same franchise he destroyed two seasons ago.
Nacua caught 12 passes for 162 yards and a touchdown against Buffalo in 2024, while adding another 16 yards and a score on the ground. The personnel have changed since then, but the matchup remains attractive.
Buffalo have allowed 1,025 passing yards and 10 passing touchdowns through four games, and injuries have created further instability in the secondary. There is no Bills corner I trust to consistently erase Nacua.
If the game reaches the scoring environment I expect, Stafford should throw enough for Puka to once again push towards double-digit receptions.
At plus money, I'll take the milestone rather than an inflated standard yardage line.
Puka Nacua - 100+ Receiving Yards
$2.05 (1 Unit)
Ty Johnson - 20+ Receiving Yards
This is the less obvious prop on the card.
James Cook is clearly Buffalo's primary running back, but Johnson continues to have a defined receiving role.
He caught four passes for 50 yards against the Chargers in Week 3, and historically Buffalo have preferred Johnson in obvious passing situations because of his route-running and pass-protection ability.
That fits this matchup. The Rams’ defence has been excellent at limiting explosive passing production, allowing just 615 net passing yards through four games.
When defences take away deeper options and pressure Allen, the checkdown becomes valuable. We only need 20 yards. Two or three catches can get us there.
Ty Johnson 20+ receiving yards
$3.00 (0.5 Units)
Anytime Touchdown Markets
Josh Allen anytime touchdown
There isn't much analysis required here. When Buffalo gets close to the goal line, Allen is always a threat to call his own number.
He already added another short-yardage rushing touchdown against New England last week, powering in from two yards to tie the game before halftime.
His combination of designed runs, sneaks and scrambling gives him multiple paths to score, and a game with a total above 53 creates plenty of expected redzone opportunities.
Close to even money, I'll happily keep playing one of football's most reliable touchdown scorers.
Josh Allen anytime touchdown
$1.92 (1.5 Units)
Davante Adams anytime touchdown
This is a bounce-back spot. Adams managed only four catches for 32 yards against Philadelphia after producing 195 yards against the Giants and 137 against Denver.
The quiet performance doesn't change his role near the goal line. Adams scored 14 touchdowns for Los Angeles last season, and few receivers in football remain better at creating separation in tight redzone spaces.
Buffalo's secondary is considerably less imposing than the Eagles group he faced last week, and the projected scoring environment gives Los Angeles plenty of opportunity to get him involved.
With Nacua commanding attention underneath and Williams forcing Buffalo to respect the running game, Adams should see one-on-one opportunities.
Davante Adams anytime touchdown
$2.10 (1 Unit)
Final Thoughts
Sometimes the obvious handicap is obvious for a reason.
Buffalo score points. Los Angeles has an enormous amount of offensive talent. Both defences have vulnerabilities that match up directly with what the opposition does well.
And two years ago, these teams combined for 86 points in one of the wildest games of the season. The total has moved, so we aren't stealing anything at 53.5.
But I would rather lay a slightly worse number on the over than force myself to choose a side in a game that could easily be decided by a field goal.
Los Angeles probably deserves favouritism at home, and I lean towards them winning. But if Buffalo gets the football last with Allen trailing by three, Rams -3.5 suddenly looks very uncomfortable.
So, let's avoid it. Instead, back both offences to do what they do best. If this matchup gets going early, Monday night could deliver another classic.
Prediction: Rams 31, Bills 27
