We have something a little different this Saturday, with just the one game on the fantasy slate as Melbourne and Carlton meet at the MCG in the first-ever AFL Wildcard Round.
While a single-game slate gives us far fewer players to choose from, it creates a completely different fantasy challenge. Ownership will naturally be concentrated around the obvious stars, which makes finding the right value plays and point of difference selections even more important than usual.
Melbourne earned the right to host after narrowly missing the top six, while Carlton's strong finish to the season secured its place in the top 10. The two sides met at the MCG earlier this year, with the Demons overcoming a 43-point deficit to win by 23 points, but there's obviously a lot more at stake this time around.
It's winner through and loser out, so we should get maximum game time from the stars and hopefully a cracking fantasy contest to go with it. Let's get stuck into Melbourne vs Carlton!
Draftstars have uppsed the prize pool for Wildcard Round with some fantastic value on offer:
AFL $70,000+ Demons vs Blues at Draftstars
AFL $7,500+ Demons vs Blues High Roller ($150 Entry) at Draftstars
AFL $3,000+ Demons vs Blues Mini ($2 Entry) at Draftstars
AFL $1,500+ Demons vs Blues Micro (50c Entry) at Draftstars
If you’re new to the Daily Fantasy Sports scene and want to join in on the fun, simply join Draftstars via this link!
AFL Daily Fantasy Lineup Tips: Wildcard Round Melbourne vs Carlton
AFL Fantasy Wildcard Round Saturday: Where to Attack?
The Blues have been excellent in the second half of the season, both in terms of their results as well as their fantasy profile. They are easily the best in the league at restricting the opposition general defenders and designated kickers over the last ten matches. There won’t be any cheap disposals for the Melbourne backs. The Blues have also been in the top three in the league at restricting opposition forwards which has gone a long way towards their recent success.
There are no obvious areas to attack the Blues, with the ruck the only position that is even slightly worse than league average.
Melbourne have also tightened up in many positions after leaking points earlier in the season. They are in the top three most restrictive to opposition wings and outside defenders, so that’s an area to be cautious when rostering Blues players. The ruck is also a tough position for the opposition when coming up against arguably the greatest ruck of all time in Max Gawn.
The only position the Melbourne show any weakness is to opposition general defenders where they are in the top three worst in the league over the last ten weeks.
Game Script: Without any strong seasonal trends to follow, most of your choices in this one will be based on the game script of how you think the match will unfold, potential role changes and individual pricing. In general, finals are more likely to be highly contested matches, rather than free-flowing football. So I would lean to inside midfielders rather than uncontested sweepers.
AFL Fantasy Wildcard Round Saturday - Our Value Fantasy Picks
There’s a number of premium players who I want in my side in this one, so it makes finding some good value picks all the more important.
Talor Byrne ($6,760) has impressed this season with his willingness to compete and the energy he brings to the Blues forward line. I don’t expect life to be easy for forwards in this one, but Byrne has the ability to nail a few tackles to help his scoring, and if he can hit the scoreboard it’s a bonus.
Harrison Petty ($9,380) was superb last week against the Bulldogs with 11 marks, 3 goals and a whopping 123 fantasy points. Petty was plucking everything like a man possessed and seemed to enjoy being the main forward target for the Dees. Petty is averaging 78.8 over his last six matches, so it’s a nice run of form. If you think the Dees can get on top, then Petty definitely comes into play.
Kade Chandler ($9,680) is another who is in play if the Dees get on top, especially if the ball is on the ground. Chandler was great two weeks ago with 4 goals in a score of 119 but he also laid 9 tackles. He backed that up with another 6 tackles last week. That gives us a great base for fantasy scoring.
AFL Fantasy Wildcard Round Saturday - Our Mid-Priced Fantasy Picks
Jagga Smith ($12,900) is coming off an excellent game last week against the Dockers with a score of 104, and after winning the Rising Star award during the week, you’d think he’s coming into his first final full of confidence. Would love to see him land a few more tackles, but that might take a few more years in the gym to build his lighter frame. He’ll be in the thick of the action so we’re looking for another 30+ touches and a ton score.
Jack Steele ($13,180) is still at a good price after recent scores of 107 and 94 in the last fortnight. Steele has a perfect game for finals footy. He’s tough on the inside and loves to smash bodies. He’s been a great pick up for the Dees this season. Steele will always give us a good scoring base thanks to his tackling. He only had 21 touches last week, but 9 tackles certainly helped the cause. Again, I want the contested players on my side in this one, so Steele is an easy pick at the price.
AFL Fantasy Wildcard Saturday - Our Premium Fantasy Picks
Patrick Cripps ($14,170) is the one player you’d love to run out next to in a final. The Blues bull will be carrying his teammates on his shoulders and doing everything in his powers to will his team over the line. Similar to Steele, Cripps doesn’t always get high disposals, but his tackling base helps his fantasy scoring. His last three weeks have produced scores of 96, 107 and 95 so he’s going well and this stage is primed for Cripps to take charge.
Max Gawn ($16,900) is almost impossible to fade. The GOAT ruck won his 9th All Australian blazer during the week and he’ll be leading from the front with a tireless display of strength, size and gut running that will be too much for the Blues. Marc Pittonet ($10,710) will try hard to crash some bodies at the contest, but Gawn will get on top around the ground where Pitto won’t be able to keep up. Gawn had a staggering 59 hitouts last week to go with 28 disposals for a 148 score. That’s the Max of old. Gets a good match up here, in a do-or-die final, you’d have to think Max is going to go large.
AFL Fantasy Wildcard Saturday - Our Fades
It’s worth noting that Jack Viney ($11,930) has remarkably been selected for his first game of the season. You’d have to think that Viney’s selection is a morale booster for the team as much as anything. He’s a heart and soul player, who loves a scrap and will thrive in the intensity of a final. Viney had 20 disposals and 7 tackles for a 98 fantasy score in his only VFL match last week. There’s so much doubt over his fitness, his role and his effectiveness that it’s too much to risk here.
With Viney in the team, he’s most likely going to be taking some CBAs away from someone. You’d have to think that’s Joel Fitzgerald ($10,770) so he becomes less attractive. There’s also a chance that Kysaiah Pickett ($14,440) is pushed more forward to help with their scoring output so I'd be careful picking him.
Here is our Suggested Draftstars Lineup for AFL Fantasy Wildcard Round Saturday
Weather Report for Saturday 29th August
MCG (Melbourne) — Mostly cloudy, 16 degrees.
AFL Betting Markets Wildcard Round Saturday
Odds: Melbourne ($2.10) vs Carlton ($1.77)
Line: Carlton -3.5
Points: 173.5
Also, be sure to check out our full AFL Friday Preview and Betting Tips. Our experts break down the game and highlight some key bets that you can follow!
