AFL Round 18 includes a triple-header on Sunday with the concluding game being Brisbane vs Essendon at the Gabba. The Lions are beginning to look back to their best and will be eyeing off another big percentage boosting win on their home deck.
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Lions vs Bombers below, with odds thanks to Unibet!
Brisbane vs Essendon Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 18
Lions Roaring Towards September
The Brisbane Lions return to the Gabba this Sunday afternoon sitting comfortably in fourth place on the ladder with 10 wins and six losses. Chris Fagan's men delivered a massive statement last weekend by travelling to GMHBA Stadium and securing a 123 to 101 victory over Geelong. The Lions completely stunned the Cats with an eight-goal opening term, establishing a dominant buffer they never surrendered. Midfield duo Will Ashcroft and Lachie Neale were immense in the engine room, collecting 32 and 28 disposals respectively to ensure clean supply forward of centre. Up front, Kai Lohmann was incredibly dangerous, capitalising on that midfield dominance to kick five goals. Returning to their home deck, the playing group knows a ruthless victory here is essential to cement their spot in the top four.
Bombers in Complete Free Fall
Essendon arrives in Queensland in the midst of a disastrous 2026 campaign. Sitting dead last on the ladder in 18th place with just one win for the entire season, the Bombers look completely devoid of confidence. Their year went from bad to worse last weekend after suffering a humiliating 67-point thrashing to St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, going down 117 to 50. The match was effectively over by half time, with Essendon conceding eight consecutive goals in the second quarter as their defensive structures completely capitulated. Travelling to face a firing Brisbane outfit at the Gabba is arguably the toughest road trip in football right now, and finding a way to remain competitive presents a monumental challenge for a severely struggling side.
Recent History & The Tactical Battle
When these sides met at Marvel Stadium in Round 8, the Lions ran completely unchecked, piling on 22 goals in a high-scoring 143 to 79 bloodbath. The tactical reality for Sunday relies heavily on centre clearances and defensive accountability. Essendon's midfield was thoroughly outworked by St Kilda last week, failing to generate any meaningful stoppage pressure. If they afford the likes of Will Ashcroft and Neale the same luxury of time and space, Brisbane's potent forward line will feast on the clean delivery.
Our Lions vs Bombers Best Bet
Taking the total match points to clear the 187.5 line is the premier play for this Sunday clash. Brisbane is currently in elite offensive form, perfectly highlighted by their massive 123-point haul against Geelong last weekend. Against an Essendon defence that just leaked 117 points to a lower-scoring St Kilda side, the home team possesses more than enough firepower to generate a massive score. Furthermore, the previous clash between these two sides generated a staggering 222 combined points. While the final margin will likely be heavily skewed towards Brisbane, the fast conditions at the Gabba typically encourage open, free-flowing football. Expect the Lions to completely control the attacking momentum, run the Bombers ragged, and push this fixture well over the total.
Total Match Points Over 187.5
$1.90 (2 Units)
Brisbane vs Essendon Prop Bet
There will be plenty of goals on offer for the Lions forwards in this match and one player who has been consistently hitting the scoreboard of late is Conor McKenna. He’s kicked at least two goals in three straight matches and has kicked multiples in six of his 10 games for the season. Despite all of that, you can still get some juicy odds.
Conor McKenna 2+ Goals
$2.12
Brisbane vs Essendon Same Game Multi
Conor McKenna 2+ Goals: For the reasons mentioned above in our prop bet.
Nate Caddy 2+ Goals: Signed a big extension at the Bombers this week and has been in strong form recently, kicking five goals across the past fortnight. He also kicked 3.5 last time he played the Lions.
Will Ashcroft 30+ Disposals: He’s been flying over the last three weeks with 30+ disposals in each of them and should find plenty of space again on Sunday.
Brisbane vs Essendon Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Sunday 12th July
Time: 4:40pm AEST
Location: Gabba, Brisbane
Odds: Brisbane $1.02 vs Essendon $15
Line: -62.5
Points: 187.5
Where to Watch Brisbane vs Essendon
You can watch the Lions vs Bombers live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
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