With State of Origin on the horizon, the NRL has a reduced number of fixtures this weekend but that is unlikely to decrease the exciting action which should follow on from NRL Magic Round. The opening match this weekend heads down to Canberra as the Raiders host the Dolphins. Seaprated by only 2-competition points, this game is important for both teams and their Finals aspirations. It sets the stage for an epic contest and Before You Bet is here with a detailed look at what is ahead.
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Raiders vs Dolphins Predictions & Tips: NRL Round 12 2026
Strong, but still unable to win
It was arguably the Raiders’ best performance of the season in their 30-18 home loss to the Panthers back in Round 10. Always expected to struggle, the Raiders took the contest to their opponents and levelled scores at 18-all with 30 minutes remaining. Unfortunately, they could not produce any more points and their opponents sealed the win with two quick tries. With 51% and an 80% completion rate, they tried hard to provide opportunities for themselves. They averaged 8.7m per carry, made more PCM’s, but were let down defensively as they allowed 9.5m per carry, and missed 34 tackles. With a week off to learn from that game and prepare for this one, they should be an improved side.
A step in the right direction
Despite being favourites for their match against the Rabbitohs, the Dolphins performed strongly and put the result beyond their opponents for majority of the contest. Absorbing early pressure, they took their chances when they eventually came, building on a 20-nil HT lead to prevail 32-12. With just 49% possession and completing at 79%, they made 9.4m per carry and had 7 line breaks. Their attitude defensively was positive also, missing just 29 tackles and forcing errors with strong line speed. The challenged, as it has always been for this team, is maintaining consistency. They’re capable and this match indicates as much, but they now must continue with similar performances.
Stats that matter
- The home team has won 4 out of 5 matches played between these two sides. It is also why the Dolphins have a 0% strike rate here. The Raiders win 59% of matches at home.
- In the past 5 matches, the average margin of victory is 11.6 points with a 38-points victory in their most recent meeting the only margin over 12 points. There have been some high scoring games in that time also, with the average total points sitting at 60.
- The Dolphins have an edge over their opponents on both sides of the ball in 2026. In attack, they score an average of 26ppg compared to the Raiders 20ppg. Defensively, they allow only 21ppg compared to the Raiders 27ppg.
Players absent but quality remains
It is easy to get caught up in the players missing for each team; this game would undoubtedly be stronger with those players featuring. It is best to look at the key positions and their ability to impact the outcome of this contest. Weekes at fullback and Starling are important inclusions for the Raiders. The Dolphins have Katoa and Marshall-King, with both teams well supported by a strong compliments of forwards. The game is far closer than the odds are suggesting. Playing positively in their last match, the Raiders will have relished the week off and should be well prepared for this contest. The Dolphins are full of confidence and will not be daunted by the trip south. Maybe a hostile home crowd will make it challenging but they’re capable of adapting. Reluctant to take them to cause an upset, the safer option ahead of this game is to take either team to win by fewer than 10 points and watch how each team adjusts to the challenging of covering the missing players, as well as observing who steps up for their team.
Either team by 10 points or less
$1.96 (1.5 units)
Raiders vs Dolphins Same Game Multi
Leg 1 = Total points over 49.5 – see above for justification of this.
Leg 2 = Bostock to score – he has been on fire lately with 8 tries from his past 5 NRL matches. Playing with confidence, Bostock will want to build on his tally of 1 try in his past 2 games against the Raiders.
Leg 3 = Weekes to score – he has crossed in both games played against the Raiders and he will again be dangerous. Important to his team’s chances, Weekes is in form with tries in his past 3 games and 5 tries in as many weeks.
Raiders vs Dolphins Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Thursday 21st May
Location: GIO Stadium, Canberra
Time: 7:50pm (AEST)
Odds: Raiders $1.65 vs Dolphins $2.25
Line: -3.5
Points: 49.5
Where to Watch Raiders vs Dolphins
Watch the Raiders vs Dolphins match live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
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