Second up on the Super Saturday schedule for Gather Round is a match between Essendon and Melbourne at Adelaide Oval. The Bombers are one of two teams still yet to taste success in 2026, while the Demons are quickly becoming everyone’s second favourite team to watch on the back of blistering ball movement, leading to their surprising 3-1 start.
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Bombers vs Demons below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Essendon vs Melbourne Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 5
Bombers Looking to Avoid History
Essendon enters this Round 5 Gather Round clash at Adelaide Oval sitting 17th on the ladder and searching for their first win of the 2026 season. Despite a winless 0-4 start, the Bombers receive a significant personnel boost with four key inclusions to the side. Former Crichton Medallist Jordan Ridley returns to bolster the defensive unit after a successful stint in the VFL, while exciting youngster Nate Caddy is back after clearing concussion protocols. Fans will also get their first look at debutant Sullivan Robey, who joins the lineup alongside Elijah Tsatas who has been banging the door down at reserves level. History is also on the line for the Bombers, as a loss here would make it a club record 18 straight defeats.
Flying Start for the Demons
Melbourne arrives in Adelaide in a strong position, currently sitting 7th on the ladder under new coach Steven King. The Demons have embraced a faster, high-scoring style of play in 2026, highlighted by a thoroughly impressive upset win over the Gold Coast Suns last week. They welcome back sharpshooter Bayley Fritsch, who missed last week with foot soreness, to join Jacob van Rooyen and new recruit Brody Mihocek in what’s been a potent forward line this year. This match also marks a massive 250th game milestone for Jake Melksham, who reaches the mark against his former club.
Recent H2H History
The recent head-to-head history between these two sides has been competitive, with Melbourne holding a 4-3 edge since 2019. Interestingly, all seven of those contests were decided by a margin of 1-39 points. Essendon will take confidence from the fact that they won the solitary meeting last season, which also took place during Gather Round, securing a 96-57 victory. Before that result, the Demons had enjoyed a period of control, including a 38-point win in 2024.
More Bombers Pain? Here’s Our Best Bet!
Taking the Demons to cover the -26.5 spread looks to be the best play in this matchup. While the Bombers have some handy inclusions, their form this season has been disastrous. Melbourne’s new-look attacking brand is firing on all cylinders and will pose a major threat throughout the day to an Essendon defence still trying to find its feet. With the Demons dominating clearance and inside 50 stats this year, expect them to control the tempo from the outset and pull away in the second half to cover the 26.5-point handicap.
Melbourne -26.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Essendon vs Melbourne Prop Bet
After a dominant first match of the season where he kicked a career-high 6 goals against the Saints, it’s been a lean 3 weeks for Jacob Van Rooyen. However, what better way to get yourself back into some form than kicking a bag against the worst team in the competition. Really juicy odds for JVR here for 2+, 3+, 4+ if you want to stack.
Jacob Van Rooyen 3+ Goals
$3.90
Essendon vs Melbourne Same Game Multi
Jacob Van Rooyen 2+ Goals: See reasoning above in our best prop bet. Going a bit safer in our SGM for just the 2 goals.
Max Gawn 20+ Disposals: The superstar gets the best matchup in this league this week for rucks. He’s also had 20+ touches in each of his last 8 matches.
Jacob Farrow 15+ Disposals: After a quiet debut with 13 disposals, Farrow looked more comfortable at the level last week with 21 against the Bulldogs. They like the ball in his hands.
Latrelle Pickett Anytime Goal Scorer: He’s kicked a goal in 2 of his 4 career matches so far but hasn’t faced an opposition as bad as the Bombers. Should be able to get on the end of one here.
Same Game Odds: $5.00 at Dabble
Essendon vs Melbourne Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Saturday 11th April
Time: 1:15pm AEST
Location: Adelaide Oval, South Australia
Odds: Essendon $4.00 vs Melbourne $1.25
Line: +26.5
Points: 184.5
Where to Watch Essendon vs Melbourne
You can watch the Bombers vs Demons live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
Back in our 2026 AFL Tips at Dabble!
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