Round 4 in the AFL begins with a blockbuster in Queensland on Thursday night with Brisbane set to host Collingwood at the Gabba. The Lions finally got off the mark with a win against the Saints last week, while the Magpies also ran home strong winners against the Giants. Who can secure another victory here and begin to build momentum?
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Lions vs Magpies below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Brisbane vs Collingwood Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2026 Round 4
Reigning Premiers Get off the Mark
Brisbane Lions preview: The 2025 premiership-winning Brisbane Lions have endured a choppy start to the 2026 season, sitting 13th on the ladder with a 1-2 record after three rounds (279 points for, 295 against, 94.6 percent). Losses to the Western Bulldogs in the opening round and Sydney in Round 1 exposed some early rust and injury concerns, but the Lions roared back in Round 3 with a commanding 33-point victory over St Kilda (113-80) at Marvel Stadium. At home at the Gabba, which has been a fortress for a number of years now, Brisbane will lean on their experienced core, slick ball movement, and ability to generate scoring bursts, especially after showing promising signs of their 2025 form in the second half against the Saints. They will be without captain Harris Andrews for one more game due to suspension, lost Darcy Gardiner to a shoulder injury last week, and with Jack Payne also out indefinitely, this is testing their key position depth.
Solid Start for the Pies
The Magpies head into Thursday night’s clash in solid shape, occupying 7th spot with a 2-1 record (244 points for, 213 against, 114.6 percent). They opened with a gritty 12-point win over St Kilda, suffered a narrow loss to Adelaide in Round 1, and have since shown the defensive resolve that has defined them under coach Craig McRae. Collingwood’s low-scoring but efficient style has them conceding just 71 points per game on average, making them a tough matchup for any attack. On the road, however, they’ll need to find more offensive spark against a Lions side desperate to build momentum at their fortress. The Magpies will be without captain Darcy Moore, who injured his hamstring last week and will miss 3-4 weeks, as well as Scott Pendlebury, who is sidelined with Achilles tightness.
Recent H2H History
These two sides know each other extremely well, and the recent history heavily favours low-scoring, closely contested affairs. The last six encounters have all gone under the 179.5 total points line (with combined totals of 171, 157, 168, 157, 164 and 176). Brisbane claimed the most recent two victories, a 29-point win in the 2025 Preliminary Final and a 27-point triumph in Round 21.
What to Expect? Here’s Our Best Bet!
Collingwood have brought their usual conservative approach into 2026 and are conceding just 71 points per game on average, and with the last six head-to-heads all going under 179.5 the unders look the smart play. Another bet worth considering is taking the Lions to win in the 1-39 margin range, which has been the result in their last two meetings. The Lions are also clearly the stronger side on paper and should find a way to win even if they aren’t at their absolute best.
Also Backing: Brisbane By 1-39 $2.20 (1 Unit)
Under 179.5 Points
$1.88 (1.5 Units)
Brisbane vs Collingwood Prop Bet
For our prop bet on Thursday night I think there’s some strong value in the Steele Sidebottom disposal markets. The veteran started the season a little slowly with 15 & 17 disposals but was huge last week with 31 against the Giants. He also has strong recent form against the Lions with 20, 26, 26, 21, 18 disposals against them in his last five, and 26 against the Lions the last time they met at the Gabba.
Steele Sidebottom 20+ Disposals
$2.35
Brisbane vs Collingwood Same Game Multi
Darcy Cameron Anytime Goal Scorer: With Oscar Steene coming in as the specialist CBA ruck, Cameron will naturally spend a bit more time forward. I expect this to be the case on Thursday as the Pies look to stretch the undermanned and undersized Lions defence.
Lincoln McCarthy Anytime Goal Scorer: After a tough run with injury, it was nice to see Linc hit the scoreboard against the Saints last week. He’ll only get better with more games under his belt and remains great value anytime.
Beau McCreery 15+ Disposals: He’s attending around 30% of the Pies CBA’s this season and is finding a lot more of the footy as a result. 16, 17 & 14 disposals in his three games in 2026.
Steele Sidebottom 15+ Disposals: For the reasons mentioned above in the prop bet.
Same Game Odds: $7.50 at Dabble
Brisbane vs Collingwood Match Info & Betting Odds
Date: Thursday 2nd April
Time: 7:30pm AEDT
Location: Gabba, Brisbane
Odds: Brisbane $1.40 vs Collingwood $2.96
Line: Brisbane -16.5
Points: 179.5
Where to Watch Brisbane vs Collingwood
You can watch the Lions vs Magpies live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
Back in our 2026 AFL Tips at Dabble!
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