It’s been a long wait, but rugby league is finally back. As has been the case in the past two years, the NRL will launch the season in Las Vegas with two intriguing contests. The first sees the Knights face off against the Cowboys. Both sides missed the Top 8 last season and will be hoping for improved fortunes in 2026. Regardless of the reasons, starting off 2026 with a victory will go a long way to improving the confidence within each club. Vegas is a funny place though and might just create a different scenario for these two sides to deal with. Scooby bring you his preview and best bet for the season opener below!
Also, Before You Bet will be providing free previews and betting tips for EVERY game in the 2026 NRL season, so make sure to head over to our NRL Tips regularly to keep up to date with all of our free content.
Knights vs Cowboys Predictions & Tips: NRL Round 1 2026
The only way is up for the Knights
The Knights were horrible in the closing rounds of 2025, culminating in the amicable departure (sacking) of coach O’Brien and winning the Wooden Spoon. Now, with a new coach and a high-profile recruit, the Knights are hoping to make amends for last year. They receive a boost with the return of Ponga at fullback. Partnering with Brown, who is named at halfback, offers a strong attacking dimension. It remains unknown whether that will be the catalyst for change. Regardless of how strong their attack is, their forwards need to step up to another level.
Time is running out for the Cowboys
Arguably one of the most disappointing teams in 2025, the Cowboys have shown faith in coach Payten, but his time will be limited if they do not start the season strongly. He has attempted to improve his team but must cover the loss of a key spine player; Mahoney is named to start to fill the void. The ever-reliable Dearden will lead his team via action; if the Cowboys had 13 players like him, they would be far more successful. They will be relying on the fact that their forwards can set a strong platform, and the power exists to put this into reality.
Stats that matter
- Despite the Knights winning 6 out of their past 8 Round 1 games, the home team has won the past 13 straight. The average margin of victory in their past 5 matches is 13.8 points, while the total point average is 42.6.
- The ‘home’ team has won all 4 matches in Las Vegas over the past 2 years. 3 out of the 4 matches have been decided by a 1-12 margin.
- An indoor stadium with a perfectly dry field has seen the average points margin of matches played at this venue sit at 47.
No confidence, anywhere
There is plenty of uncertainty in this contest of the potential of either team to perform well or even display consistency. This has left the confidence levels low when selecting a winner. The unknown of Brown in the halves, linking with Ponga, and leading this team around the field could cause issues for the Cowboys. Unlike the most recent Pacific Tests where he displayed his best form, the forwards will need to be at another level. This is one area where the Cowboys appear stronger. They also appear more capable with the players coming off the bench. With Dearden steering the ship and a few other players with a point to prove, the ‘safer’ option (if you must have a bet) is to invest on the Cowboys winning this match by fewer than 2 converted tries. A blowout loss would be diabolical to the Knights this early in the season.
Cowboys 1-12
$2.70 (1 unit)
Knights vs Cowboys Same Game Multi
Leg 1 = Total Points Over 43.5 – Despite the average being lower than this margin, the average of matches played at this ground, in terrific conditions, suggests that this is in danger.
Leg 2 = Dearden to score – he has scored a try in each of his past 5 games against the Cowboys.
Leg 3 = Young to score – bettering Dearden by 1, Young has 6 tries against the Cowboys in his past 5 matches.
SGM Odds = $8.00 at Dabble
Knights vs Cowboys Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: 1st March
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Time: 1:15pm (AEST)
Odds: Knights $2.45 vs Cowboys $1.55
Line: +4.5
Points: 42.5
Where to Watch Knights vs Cowboys
Watch the Knights vs Cowboys match live on Channel 9 as well as ad free on Kayo Sports.
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