The final round of NBL26 continues on Thursday night with a double-header for fans to enjoy. Second up on the night is the headline act, as Melbourne United and the South East Melbourne Phoenix lock horns at John Cain Arena. Check out our preview and best bet below!
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Melbourne United vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Prediction & Betting Tips: NBL26 Round 22
United Still Can’t Recapture Form
Melbourne United enters the 32nd edition of the Throwdown at a critical junction in their season. Currently sitting in fifth place with a 19-13 record, United is looking to arrest a late season slump that has seen them drop three of their last four games. The absence of defensive anchor Shea Ili has left a significant void in their backcourt. While Tyson Walker has stepped up brilliantly, recently recording a season high 30 points against the Hawks, the team's overall defensive identity has wavered. A victory here is essential if they have any hope of climbing into fourth spot and avoid a do or die play-in game against the Tasmania JackJumpers.
Phoenix Will Be Desperate
The South East Melbourne Phoenix arrive at John Cain Arena as one of the form teams of the competition. Boasting a 22-10 record and sitting third on the ladder, Josh King’s squad is playing for a potential top two finish and a direct path to the semi-finals. The Phoenix have evolved into an offensive powerhouse this year, averaging a league high 101 points per game. With veteran guard Nathan Sobey leading the charge and former United championship winner Ian Clark providing elite spark off the bench, the Phoenix possess a depth of scoring that few can match. They enter this clash healthy and motivated, knowing a win keeps the pressure on Adelaide for that coveted second seed.
Recent H2H History
The head to head history between these cross-town rivals traditionally leans toward United, who hold a 21-10 all-time advantage. However, the tide turned dramatically in their most recent encounter in December. The Phoenix dismantled United 111-86, recording their highest ever score and largest winning margin in Throwdown history. While United won the first two meetings of the season, those victories came during a period of defensive stability that has since been compromised by injuries. The Phoenix have now won nine of their last 12 games, carrying significant momentum into this regular season finale.
United or Phoenix? Here’s Our Tip!
Given the current trajectory of both teams, the South East Melbourne Phoenix appear well positioned to cover the -4.5 spread. United’s defensive rating has slipped without Ili, and they have struggled to contain high pace offensive teams in recent weeks. The Phoenix’s ability to blitz opponents from the perimeter, having shot over 50% from deep in their last meeting with Melbourne, suggests they can pull away in the second half. Expect the Phoenix to play with the desperation required for a top two finish, exploiting United’s current lack of rhythm to secure a victory by five points or more.
Phoenix -4.5
$1.91 (2 Units)
United vs Phoenix Dabble Pick‘Em
Popular sportsbook Dabble have launched Pick’Em - a new a simpler way to combine player markets from the same game for bigger odds. We’ve put together a 3-Leg Pick’Em for the United vs Phoenix clash that you can follow via the link below! You can also learn more about Dabble’s Pick’Em feature here.
- Finn Delany 11 Points (MORE)
- Chris Goulding 12.5 Points (MORE)
- John Brown 7.5 Rebounds (MORE)
Dabble Pick‘Em Odds Multiplier: 6.5x ($10 to win $65) - Click here to get involved!
United vs Phoenix Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Thursday, February 18th, 2026
Time: 7:30pm AEDT
Location: John Cain Arena, Melbourne
Odds: United $2.70 vs Phoenix $1.48
Line: Phoenix -5.5
Points: 190.5
Where to Watch United vs Phoenix
You can watch the United vs Phoenix clash live and ad-free on Kayo Sports.
Back In our United vs Phoenix Tips at Dabble!
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