The second game of Saturday football takes place in the sunshine state as the Gold Coast Suns host Richmond. The Suns need a win to stay in the eight, can Richmond upset Gold Coast for the second time this season?
We bring you our full preview and expert tips for the Suns vs Tigers below, with odds thanks to Dabble!
Gold Coast vs Richmond Prediction & Betting Tips: AFL 2025 Round 21
Suns Standing Up
After being smashed by the Crows in Round 19, Gold Coast faced a pivotal moment in the context of their season, taking on their rivals Brisbane, who have had the wood over them for nearly the entirety of their existence. However in wet conditions the Suns produced their most impressive performance of the season, dominating the reigning premiers en route to a 66 point win. As expected Gold Coast were led by their star duo of Matt Rowell (37 disposals) and Noah Anderson (33 disposals, 1 goal) but they also had some impressive contributions by some lesser names. Joel Jeffrey (32 disposals), Brayden Fiorini (32 disposals, 1 goal) and Alex Davies (30 disposals) had excellent performances. With the Dogs winning on Thursday night the Suns currently sit out of the eight, however a win will put Damien Hardwick’s side back in the eight, and still holding a game in hand on the other top eight teams.
Tigers Competitive, But Unpolished
Many expected Richmond to be on the end of a hiding as they faced the ladder leaders last week, but the Tigers were very competitive in a 36 point defeat. The Tigers backline held up remarkably well against an avalanche of Collingwood supply, with Nick Vlastuin at his usual best with 25 disposals and 7 marks. Jacob Hopper continued his strong form (33 disposals), while Tyler Sonsie had a career high 28 disposals. Richmond will need their defence to hold up strongly once again, against a stacked Suns forward line that is in red hot form.
The Stats That Matter
The Suns success this season has been built off a dominant clearance game, which is the best in the competition. Gold Coast ranks 1st in the league for clearances, 2nd for scores from centre bounce and 3rd for scores from stoppages. Another key area of strength for Gold Coast is their transition game. Gold Coast ranks 4th in the AFL for chains to score and 5th for going from defensive half to forward 50.
Unsurprisingly the Tigers struggle in a lot of areas, ranking 18th for points for, 18th for tackles, 18th for inside 50’s, 17th for disposals and 17th for clearances.
Suns or Tigers? Here’s Our Gold Coast vs Richmond Tip
There’s no surprises here, this game is going to be one way traffic for the Suns who are so hard to beat at home. Gold Coast are 5-1 at People First Stadium this season after having a 7-2 record at the venue in 2024. They’re even harder to beat in the twilight slots, given their experience in dewy conditions which Victorian sides certainly don’t cope well with.
The line of -54.5 points does look big, but when you factor in some of the scores Gold Coast have kicked this season, it’s certainly within their capability. The Suns average winning margin is 33 points, and on 4 occasions this season have won by over 50 points. Gold Coast love putting bad teams to the sword, with a 7-1 record against the bottom ten teams with an average winning margin of 44 points. After putting up 130 puts against the reigning premiers in tough conditions last week, it’s scary to think about what the Suns forward line could produce this week.
Gold Coast -54.5
$1.90 (1.5 Units)
Gold Coast vs Richmond Prop Bet: Rowell On Fire
Our Best Prop Bet: Rowell 30+ Disposals
With the Suns facing three top four opponents over the last three weeks, Matt Rowell has risen to the occasion, playing his best football of the year. Rowell has recorded 32, 30 and 37 disposals across his last three games, and is also averaging 30 disposals per game across his last three games against Richmond.
Matt Rowell 30+ Disposals
$2.10
Gold Coast vs Richmond Same Game Multi
Matt Rowell 30+ Disposals: As mentioned above, Rowell is in scintillating form with 32, 30 and 37 disposals across his last three games, and averages 30 disposals per game across his last three games against Richmond.
Jacob Hopper 25+ Disposals: Jacob Hopper’s last five weeks have been outstanding, with performances of 33, 33, 27, 27 and 28 disposals. Hopper is averaging 26 disposals per game this season, and picked up 27 disposals in the Tigers win over the Suns earlier in the year.
Bailey Humphrey 2+ Goals: Bailey Humphrey is really hitting his straps over the last six weeks, impacting the game with possessions and on the scoreboard. Humphrey has kicked 2+ goals in four of his last six games, including 3 goals against the Lions last week.
Gold Coast vs Richmond Betting Odds & Match Info
Date: Saturday 2nd August
Location: People First Stadium
Weather: Partly cloudy, 16 degrees
Odds: Gold Coast ($1.02) vs Richmond ($15)
Where to Watch Gold Coast vs Richmond?
Tail our Gold Coast vs Richmond Tips at Dabble!
