A huge clash kicks off Super Saturday in NRL Round 17, as the suddenly resurgent Brisbane Broncos host the Warriors at Suncorp Stadium, looking to build off two wins in a row. The Warriors will look to bounce back after going down to the Baby Panthers last week, in a game with massive ramifications for both teams. Ben brings you his preview and best bets for this clash below!
If you're looking for somewhere new to bet this weekend, then we are pleased to announce the launch of BetReal, a brand new Australian-owned sports betting site. Time to get real with BetReal!
Broncos vs Warriors Prediction & Tips: 2025 NRL Round 17
Broncos Looking to Put the Pressure on the Warriors
The Broncos attack looked back to its best in the second half last week, as they overcame a 16-point half time deficit to storm home against the Sharks, winning 34-28. They were led from the front by Payne Haas, who had a remarkable game after backing up from Origin, playing 58 minutes and running for close to 200 metres, making 40 tackles, busting 9 tackles and popping 6 offloads. Kotoni Staggs continued his tremendous form, running for 204 metres, breaking the line four times, and busting a massive 10 tackles. Can the Broncos defence start to step up this week, or will the attack have to keep getting this team out of gaol? A win here will put the Broncos just 4 points out of the top 4, in what could prove a massive turning point for the fourth and final place in the top 4 this season.
Who Will Lead with Metcalf Injured?
The Warriors come in off a disappointing loss to the Panthers last week, who were missing five Origin stars and having to travel across the ditch. The Panthers thoroughly deserved the win, dominating statistically against a Warriors team that may have underestimated their opponents. Whilst it looked almost a lock that the Warriors would make the top 4, a loss here puts them firmly in the sights of some very good teams, so plenty on the line here against an improving Broncos team. There are concerns over the health of star halfback Luke Metcalf, and if he doesn’t play this week or if he is hampered by a leg injury, the Warriors may struggle to score enough points to beat the Broncos here. With a softer draw over the next month, the Warriors would love to get a win here to take some pressure off.
Broncos vs Warriors Recent History
The Warriors have a good recent regular season record over the Broncos, winning three of the past four, however the Broncos managed to hammer the Warriors two years ago in the Preliminary Final. In their most recent matchup back in round 7, the Broncos closed 8.5-point road favourites in Auckland, with the total closing 47.5. In an extremely tight game of football, the Broncos forced the game to Golden Point after two converted tries in the last 13 minutes, before Reece Walsh famously put the kick off out on the full. Luke Metcalf took over, calling for the ball and telling the ref he would be taking the 50-metre shot at goal. Metcalf calmly stepped up and slotted it from halfway, securing the 20-18 win for the home team. Payne Haas and Patrick Carrigan were immense for the Warriors, running for a combined 414 metres in the middle, whilst Jackson Ford never stopped, running for 151 metres and making 46 tackles.
Expect a Tight Contest to Kick Off Super Saturday
The Broncos were listed as 1.5-point favourites on the look ahead, however it didn’t take long for Broncos money to hit the market, pushing them to 5.5-point favourites by Tuesday afternoon. This is quite a jump and shows the willingness of the market to back the Broncos when they show a little bit of form. The question is, has this gone too far? I make the Broncos a 3.5-point favourite, and getting the Warriors over the try start seems like a good bet, however the concern of Metcalf is real and makes it hard to back the road team in this situation. I would heavily lean towards the Warriors and would smash the bet button if I knew Metcalf was fit. The Warriors have covered the spread five of six times this season when closing as underdogs.
If we look towards the total, it opened 46.5 and has been bet up steadily to 48.5, surely off the back of the Broncos’ offensive rejuvenation over the past two weeks with Reece Walsh back in the team. I have a fair total at 46, so like the opening total better, and can see decent value in the under here. In the first meeting between these teams, it was a very defensive game of football, however given this is on a Saturday afternoon with decent conditions expected, there could be more points scored here. The Warriors and Broncos have both been 50/50 this season on game totals, and this total looks too close to find any value. No bet.
So, my bet this week is going to have this game staying close. Both teams have plenty on the line in this contest, and I don’t really see either team being blown out. The Broncos have played 8 games this season with a 1-12 margin, whilst the Warriors have played 9 of their 14 games with the same margin. All signs point towards this being tight, with goal kicking potentially being the difference with Metcalf more than likely not kicking here.
Either team to win by less than 10.5 points
$1.98 (1.5 Units)
Broncos vs Warriors Player Prop Bet: Reece Lightning to Continue Hot Form
Our Best Player Prop Bet: Reece Walsh 1+ Try
Walsh didn’t manage to score last week, but I’ll back him in to fix that this week. Walsh all but cost the Broncos the win in round 7 against the Warriors, and I expect him to bounce back here and get revenge on his old team.
Reece Walsh (1+ Try)
$2.10 (1 Unit)
Broncos vs Warriors Same Game Multi
Leg 1: Under 49.5 points – I like the under here, and it goes nicely with the other two legs to really push the price up.
Leg 2: R Walsh (1+ try) – See Best Prop Bet.
Leg 3: E Kosi (1+ try) – Four tries in his past five games, Kosi has proven to be a great finisher for the Warriors. Whilst he has only played three games this season, he has scored two tries and will be a real chance at a try against a Broncos team that concedes 80% of their tries on edges.
Broncos vs Warriors Better Odds & Match Info
Date: Saturday, 29th June
Location: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Weather: Possible showers, 22 degrees
Odds: Broncos ($1.57) vs Warriors ($2.40)
Also, Before You Bet will be providing free previews and betting tips for EVERY game in the 2025 NRL season, so make sure to head over to out NRL Tips regularly to keep up to date with all our free content.
Where to Watch Broncos vs Warriors
Watch the Broncos vs Warriors match live and ad free on Kayo Sports.
Tail our Broncos vs Warriors Tips at Neds!
