Welcome to our preview and horse racing betting tips for racing at Moonee Valley on Saturday, October 26th.
The Group 1 Cox Plate headlines today's huge 10-race card. You can find our comprehensive runner-by-runner preview of the feature race HERE!
The track is rated a Good 4 with the rail left in the true position after last night's Manikato Stakes meeting. There is up to 3mm of rain predicted today, but I think the track will stay in the Good range.
Check out our preview and betting tips for the whole card below.
Moonee Valley Racing Tips: Saturday, October 26th
Best Bet: Race 4 - (3) Villami
Best Value: Race 8 - (9) Pacodali
14 two-year-olds lining up here over 1000m, with only two that have raced. I'll be staying out and will watch the track pattern instead.
No bet
(4) Esperance looks the class animal of the field here and should take plenty of beating, but $1.90 is well and truly short enough. James Cummings has only had one winners at Moonee Valley in the past 12 months and this horse has gone down as a short-priced favourite one or two times in the past. (3) Makahu Boy looks over the odds at $10. He's third up into this. He ran 2nd first up behind Lagerfield, who then came out and won its next start here at the Valley, so that form looks pretty reasonable, and forget Makahu Boy went around last start where he was caught three-wide the trip on speed. He's drawn well, gets blinkers applied for the first time and has a good record at this track and distance, so he's a value chance in a small field.
These races can sometimes be hard to assess with lightly-raced fillies bringing different form lines from different states. I'm very keen to be with (1) Fascino here. She's racing really well this preparation. She won well first up, had no luck second up when beaten 1.2L, and last start she just found one better late in the G2 Edward Manifold Stakes. That could prove to be a decent form race. She's ticking along nicely and so long as she's within striking distance on the turn, I think she'll take some beating. (5) Asiago and (7) Nudge ran the quinella at Kembla Grange in Sydney last start. That form can probably hold up here.
(3) Villami looks one of the best bets of the day at The Valley. She's had three runs this preparation and the form around her is absolutely exceptional. First up she was beaten 2.6L by Libertini (and was only 0.3L off Flit), two starts ago she ran 0.2L 2nd to Libertini and last start she was beaten less than half-a-length by Loving Gaby, after sitting three-wide without cover on speed. Loving Gaby then came out and won the G1 Manikato Stakes last night! James McDonald takes over the ride on Villami today and with any luck she looks the winner. (6) Don'ttelltheboss is another filly with very strong form lines. She ran 3rd behind California Zimbol and Loving Gaby last start and she was luckless in the same race as Villami two starts back (which Loving Gaby won). $7.50 is a good price and she looks the value outside the favourite.
Value: (6) Don'ttelltheboss $7.50
Going to stick with (1) Condo's Express here, with Damien Oliver picking up the ride. I was keen on him in the Blue Sapphire Stakes but the market didn't want him and he ran accordingly. He was fresh from a seven-week break on that occasion so he might have improved a bit coming into this. The form out of that race looks very strong as Anaheed has since come out and run 3rd in the G1 Manikato Stakes. He's undefeated at the track and should be very competitive. (8) Three Beans could be the value at $6.50. He was only run down late here first up but he should be improved off that. The winkers go on for the first time here and he should be right up on the speed, which was no disadvantage last night. (3) Sartorial Splendour was butchered last start but was good prior to that. If he jumps to the front he'll be there for a long way.
Value: (8) Three Beans $6.50
(1) Condo's Express
$3.20
I think (1) Battenburg rates as the horse to beat here, but I'm going to go with (5) Soul Patch. He clocked the second-fastest final 400m in the G1 Caulfield Guineas, bettered only by the winner Super Seth. He started from barrier 12 in that race so got a long way back and just had too much to do, but I think he's a pretty promising horse. His win at Flemington leading into the Guineas was superb. Battenburg ran 3rd to Shadow Hero and Castelvecchio in the G1 Spring Champion Stakes last start. Castelvecchio goes around in single figures in the Cox Plate, while Shadow Hero will start one of the favourites in next weekend's Derby. Should be able to box seat, gets JMac on and has the run at 2000m under the belt. Ticks a lot of boxes. Probably backing both at level stakes.
I'd be backing (6) Mr Quickie here except he was lame on Thursday and needed to pass a couple of vets inspections leading into today's race. It's well documented how much I love this horse but I can't be backing him as favourite here with those issues lingering, even if he probably should have fought out the finish to last week's Caulfield Cup. Instead, I'll be backing (4) Downdraft and (7) Humidor. Downdraft makes his Australian debut, trained by Joseph O'Brien in Ireland. He's won six of his 16 starts including two at Listed level. The draw is slightly awkward but I'm expecting him to run a very good race. Humidor showed signs last start that he's coming back into form after a long injury layoff. He hit the line, which was the first time he's done that this preparation and I suspect the stable have aimed him at this day in particular for a long time. He should be ready to be very competitive.
Basically only three runners I'm interested in here. (3) Dreamforce started his preparation in terrific form but just had too big a task last start in the G1 Epsom Handicap. He's much better suited here with a soft barrier draw and back onto firm ground. He's never won on soft ground before so the track conditions in the Epsom last start didn't suit at all. Forgive him for that and his form for this suddenly looks very good. (9) Pacodali is the clear value in the race at double figure odds and is one of my best value bets of the day. He was very firm in betting first up, which was his first run for new trainer Lindsey Smith, and he ran home strongly without a lot of luck. He was held up until the 150m mark but hit the line in the clear best closing sectionals to finish 1.2L off Rox The Castle. He's got a good second up record, ran 2nd at his only start at this track and distance and the step up to 1600m is only going to help his cause. Looks right in this. (10) Sikandarabad was good late in the Toorak Handicap and this is an easier race. I'll be having something on Dreamforce ($4.20), Pacodali ($11) and saving on Sikandarabad ($6.00).
Click here to view our comprehensive preview of the Group 1 Cox Plate!
This is an absolute headache to finish the day! I'm going to stick with (6) Snogging at double figure odds. I've been on her both starts this prep and both have been good. She was super first up behind Harbour Views, who maintained his unbeaten record with another impressive win at Geelong midweek, and then last start she had no luck when caught wide without cover throughout the race. She was only beaten 1.6L by Spanish Reef and third up today she should be spot on. Drawn soft and can run well. (8) Extreme Bliss is a blowout chance at $26. Her form is better than it appears on paper and she had no luck here last start. (2) Girl Tuesday ran 3rd to Samadoubt and Avilius just two starts ago. Forget she went around last start in the Kingston Town Stakes when she drew wide, went back and ran on an unsuitable surface. Back onto firm ground today, drawn wide again but if she can settle a bit further forward with cover she'll take some holding out. (4) Music Bay and (11) Vanuatu both winning chances. Happy to take on (5) Amangiri - I've been a bit disappointed with her two runs back in Sydney.
